Wildcard Weekend continues with two tasty match-ups on Sunday. Can the inexperience of a rookie be enough against a 15-year veteran? Can a first-year head coach and second-year QB dethrone the defending champs?
Game Previews
No. 5 Los Angeles
Chargers (12-4) at No. 4 Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
All-time Wild Card Round: Chargers (5-2), Ravens (7-1)
Strange but true: Lamar
Jackson has the highest fourth quarter passer rating this season (minimum of
six starts) of 119.9 (NFLResearch).
It’s the ultimate matchup of experience vs. youth. It’s 21 year
old rookie Lamar Jackson facing 37 year old veteran Philip Rivers. Since 1990,
rookie QBs are 1-4 in playoff games when facing a QB with 10 or more years of
experience (NFLResearch). Ironically, the only rookie QB to win? The Ravens Joe
Flacco.
It couldn’t be a worse matchup in the first round for the
Chargers, especially after tying for the best record in the conference. Their ‘reward’
is traveling across the country for a second date with a team that dominated
them just 15 days ago (held the Chargers to their fewest points (10), total
yards (198) and pass yards (147) in a game this season, NFL.com). The good
news? Philip Rivers is a perfect 3-0 in his career in the wild card round and
the Bolts were a league-best 7-1 on the road this season (tied with the Saints).
LA has the playmakers – Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams – to compete
with the best of em, but the key will be in protecting Rivers. Not an easy task
against the Ravens, who blitz QBs at the third-highest rate in the NFL (38.5 percent
of QB dropbacks), generating 24 sacks and allowing a passer rating of 71.0 on
such plays (NFL.com).
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| It's hard to find a more competitive player in the league than Rivers (SI.com). |
The Ravens are thriving with the ultra-athletic dual threat
under center. Since Jackson took over in Week 11, the birds are 6-1 and leaning
on a punishing rushing attack headed by him and Gus Edwards, who combined for
1,210 rush yards in that span – the most of any teammate duo in the league (NFL.com).
But this is the playoffs – a different stage for rookie QBs. In the last five postseason
appearances in which rookie QBs have started, all five lost. And since 2010,
first-year passers are 2-7 in playoff tilts, with the only two wins coming in
rookie versus rookie battles (NFL.com). Jackson must avoid mistakes and move
the offense enough to leave the rest of the game in the hands of the league’s
number one-ranked defense. If the Ravens can continue to run at a staggering
rate, they’ll be hard to stop.
Everything seems to be against the Bolts in this one. But
for the sake of Philip Rivers, no one deserves a shot to advance more than him.
Prediction: Los
Angeles 20, Baltimore 16
No. 6 Philadelphia
Eagles (9-7) at No. 3 Chicago Bears (12-4)
All-time Wild Card Round: Eagles (7-8), Bears (2-2)
Here we go again. The defending champion Eagles find
themselves in familiar territory – an underdog with backup QB Nick Foles manning
the ship.
Would the City of Brotherly Love want anyone else behind
center? Foles is 9-2 as a starter (including playoffs) since 2017. He is 4-1
this season, averaging 282.6 yards per contest. The difference this time around
is that he’ll have to do it on the road against arguably the league’s best
defense and one of the best pass rushers in Khalil Mack. The good news for the
Eagles is that they’re familiar with elite defensive fronts, having faced Aaron
Donald and the Texans duo (Watt & Clowney) down the stretch – only yielding one sack in that span. Giving Foles time in the pocket will be critical in finding the scoreboard this one. Meanwhile, the defense has been playing better of late, especially up front, recording 10 sacks and 24 QB hits over the final three games (NFL.com). The d-line was a major part of carrying the Eagles to the Super Bowl last season. They'll need to show up in a big way on Sunday.
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| Mack has thrived at home this season (chicagobears.com). |
Under first year head coach Matt Nagy, the Bears enter the
playoffs for the first time since 2010 behind an incredible turnaround – going from
worst to first in their division. Chicago enters this matchup with the top
defense in the league – finished the regular season ranked first in scoring
defense (17.7 points allowed per game), takeaways (36) and interceptions (27),
and third in sacks (50) and turnover differential (+12). That in itself will be
a tough out for a crazed fan base ready to dethrone the defending champs at
home, where the Bears went 7-1 this season. But in a QB-driven league, the play of second-year pro Mitchell Trubisky will ultimately be the x-factor.
Over the last 10 seasons, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks
are 9-1 against quarterbacks making their first playoff start in the wild-card
round (NFL.com). In that same span, 8 of 13 first-year head coaches to make the
playoffs have lost on Wild Card Weekend. The Eagles are battle-tested. The Bears, young and inexperienced. At home, the Bears do enough to unseat the champs.
Prediction: Chicago 17, Philadelphia 9
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