2019 brings a youth movement and a fresh
blend of new faces to the party, as seven newcomers enter the field who weren’t
in the fold a season ago (Colts, Texans, Chargers, Ravens, Cowboys, Bears, and
Seahawks). Half of the starting QBs are 25 or younger: Dak Prescott, Jared
Goff, Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson.
That’s the most QBs 25 or younger in a single postseason in NFL history (Elias Sports).
Three of the four games on the slate this weekend are rematches from the regular season. Does home field matter? In five out of the last six seasons,
at least one road team has won in the opening round of the playoffs. Last
season saw two teams (Titans, Falcons) steal games away from home. The best
candidate to do so this season? The Chargers, who went 7-1 away from LA.
Game Previews
Saturday
No. 6 Indianapolis
Colts (10-6) at No. 3 Houston Texans (11-5)
All-time Wild Card Round: Colts (6-6), Texans (3-1)
Strange but true:
The Texans have never played a wild card game on the road – they’ve hosted all
five (including Saturday) first round games.
Not much separates these two AFC South division rivals. And
if the two regular season encounters were any indication – both having been
decided by three points (one in OT) – the rubber match is bound to follow suit.
Entering the postseason, there might not be a hotter team
than Indianapolis. After starting the season 1-5, the Colts won nine out
of their last 10 games, including four in a row, to reach the playoffs for
the first time since 2014. Comeback player of the year favorite Andrew Luck has
returned to MVP form, enjoying the best completion percentage (67.3 percent), and
second most yards (4,593) & touchdowns (39) of his career. His offensive line
is a big reason why, as he was sacked a league-low 18 times this season (Drew
Brees was sacked 17 times in one fewer game). A third of those sacks allowed
(six) however came at the hands of Houston’s defensive front. Giving Luck a
clean pocket will be key to fueling the Colts ‘upset’.
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| What a comeback season it has been for #12 and the Colts (SBnation). |
The Texans return to the postseason after a one year hiatus,
making their sixth appearance. They have never advanced past the divisional
round. The one player that could end that drought? Deshaun Watson, who became
the first player in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards & 25 TDs and rush
for 500 yards in a single season (TexansPR). Not to mention the most underrated
receiver in the league in DeAndre Hopkins, who caught a staggering (and career-high)
115 passes with ZERO drops. That connection will be key in the hosts advancing
to the second weekend for just the fourth time in franchise history. So too
will keeping Watson upright, who was sacked a league high 62 times this season.
Meanwhile, the defense – ranked third in rush defense (82.7) and fourth in points
allowed (19.8) – will have to get stops against the Colts seventh-ranked offense. Something they weren’t able to do the first two times around.
In the two previous contests this season, the teams combined
for 116 points (58-58) and 1,695 yards, which included Luck throwing for 863
and six TDs, and Watson totaling 718 yards (642 passing, 76 rushing) and four
TDs. Expect much of the same in this toss-up, with a turnover or big defensive play
being the difference.
Prediction: Indianapolis 24, Houston 20
No. 5 Seattle
Seahawks (10-6) at No. 4 Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
All-time Wild Card Round: Seahawks (8-4), Cowboys (6-5)
A matchup of the league’s number one rushing offense (160
yards per game) against the league’s individual rushing leader (Ezekiel
Elliott) – just the third time in the Super Bowl era that a playoff game will
feature such a scenario (DanHanzus). In the previous two instances, the rushing
champions (Earl Campbell & Emmitt Smith) led their teams to wins (Hanzus).
The Hawks enter this game making their sixth playoff appearance
in the last seven seasons – albeit this time with a different cast of
characters. The one constant? Russell Wilson. The main difference? An old
school philosophy of running the football – the only team this season to run
more than they passed. In a quarterback-driven, pass-friendly league, Pete
Carroll has been the outlier, turning to a power-rushing attack with a trio of young
backs led by Chris Carson. The three – all under the age of 25 – carried the
league’s number one attack by combining to rush for 2,084 yards (Carson 1,151,
Mike Davis 514, and Rashaad Penny 419) and 15 TDs. Yet, despite Seattle’s
run-heavy approach, Wilson still had great success threw the air – finished third
in the NFL in total deep passing yardage (1,108) – throwing for a career-high
35 touchdowns (Ringer). On the defense, it’s a team of underrated stars, led by
All-Pro LB Bobby Wagner, who tallied 138 tackles and missed ZERO on the season.
The key for Seattle will be containing Elliott, and controlling the clock with
the run game to set up the deep ball with Wilson and Co.
 |
| Despite a run-heavy attack, Wilson had the third most passing TDs this season (12th Man Rising). |
America’s team returns to the postseason for the 33rd
time in franchise history, seeking its first win since 2014. They’ve relied
heavily on their seventh-ranked defense and elusive tailback – Elliott rushed
for a league-high 1,434 yards – for much of the season. Amari Cooper (who didn’t
play in the week 3 matchup) has added some much-needed help on the outside and
will be a huge factor in this one. Much like Seattle, Dallas is loaded with
underrated talent on defense. A major key will be leaning on its fifth-ranked
rush defense (94.6) and forcing Wilson into third-and-long situations. Ultimately, the
magic number: 20. The Cowboys are 9-0 when they score 20 or more points this
season (1-6 when they don’t).
With two teams that are mirror images of each other, this is
bound to come down to the final possession. I’ll take the experience and clutch
factor of Mr. Wilson.
Prediction: Seattle 20,
Dallas 17
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