2019 AFC Championship Preview: Time to Pass the Torch?

For the first time in the Super Bowl era, the top four scoring offenses – Chiefs 35.3 PPG (1^st), Rams 32.9 PPG (2^nd), Saints 31.5 PPG (3^rd), and Patriots 27.3 PPG (4^th) – are playing in the Conference Championship (NFL.com). It will be an offensive showcase of epic proportions with the young guns – Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff – trying to eliminate a pair of all-time greats and former Super Bowl MVPs – Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

In years past, the advantage favors the team playing at home. Away teams haven’t won a Conference title since 2012 (when both the Ravens & 49ers won). And remember, nine out of the last ten number one seeds have made it to the Super Bowl. Can the Saints and Chiefs follow suit? 

Four teams. Two tickets to Atlanta. One dream of hoisting the Lombardi. 

Game Preview

No. 2 New England Patriots (12-5) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

All-time AFC Championship: Patriots (10-4), Chiefs (2-1)

Strange but true: Tom Brady is more than 18 years older than Patrick Mahomes, the largest age gap ever by two starting QBs in a playoff game (NFL.com).

Just like the NFC, it’s a rematch from the regular season – one that totaled a combined 946 yards and 83 points. The difference is that this one will be played in Arrowhead. It’s only the second postseason meeting ever between these two franchises (the Patriots won 27-20 in 2015). And a matchup of the two winningest active head coaches in the game (1. Belichick – 290, 2. Reid – 207). Believe it or not, even with all of the success, both tend to struggle in playoff games involving a rematch from the regular season. Since 2001, Belichick is 12-9 in postseason games vs teams he faced in the regular season (16-1 vs teams he didn’t face), while Reid is 6-10 in said rematches (6-3 vs teams he didn’t, NFLResearch). 

James White is Brady's dink-and-dunk magnet (Patriots Wire).

The Patriots will win if: they run for 100 yards.

Here we go again. Playing in their NFL-record eighth consecutive conference championship, the Pats continue to be an annoyance to the rest of the league, and everyone… outside of Boston. No matter who they trot on to the field, as long as #12 is behind center, they show no signs of slowing. Brady – who has more playoff wins (28) than any QB has playoff starts – was as crisp as ever in the Pats Divisional round disposal of the Chargers. Like clockwork, he completed 77 percent (34-of-44) of his passes for 343 yards and a touchdown. On tap Sunday is a matchup with the 31^st ranked defense (27^th in rushing, 31^st in passing) from the regular season.

We all know Belichick will have a game plan for slowing Mahomes and the league’s number one offense. Part of that will almost certainly come in the form of running the football with rookie RB Sony Michel – who ran for a rookie franchise record 129 yards and three TDs against the Bolts. Not only will it keep the high-octane Chiefs offense off the field, but it will open up the passing game enough for Brady to do what he does best. And keep this in mind… the Patriots are a perfect 10-0 (including playoffs) this season when they rush for 100 yards or more in a game (2-5 when they don’t). In tough conditions on the road, expect a heavy dose of the running game – one that has averaged 149 yards a game since the calendar changed to December.   

No. 15 has an opportunity to send the Chiefs to the big game for the first time since '69 (SB Nation). 

The Chiefs will win if: Patrick Mahomes plays like Patrick Mahomes.

Whether it’s the brilliant coaching of Bill Belichick or the overwhelming task of taking down such a juggernaut, teams almost always become inept at figuring out how to overcome such a mission in the postseason. So before the Chiefs trot out their number one offense onto the field, remember this: when Belichick plays against the number one offense in the postseason, he is 5-1 and holds his opponents to an average of 19 PPG (NFLonESPN). The Chiefs haven’t scored fewer than 26 points in a game all season. So can a QB making just his 18^th career start solve the riddle? If this season has been any indication, the resounding answer is yes.

Nothing has phased first-year starter and MVP-favorite Patrick Mahomes all season long. Not the confines of Gillette Stadium in primetime, where he went toe-to-toe with an all-time great in Brady (352 yards and 4 TDs). Not the number one defense (Ravens) invading Arrowhead, where he led a last second drive (amidst 348 yards passing and 2 TDs) to send the game to OT and steal a win. Not the Monday Night showdown in LA, where he threw for 478 yards and six TDs. Not even his first postseason start, where he led KC to its first playoff win at home since 1993. Quite simply, the second-year pro out of Texas Tech has been better than advertised, taking the Chiefs to new heights this season. And a win on Sunday would give him something the franchise hasn’t achieved since 1969 – a Conference Championship and a trip to the Super Bowl.

Obviously, he and his mates welcome a different beast on Sunday. A QB-HC duo that has played in more postseason games than most franchises – a tandem seeking its unprecedented ninth trip to the Super Bowl (and sixth title). None of that seems to matter to Mahomes – who joined Brady as the only QBs in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 TDs in a season. With a trip to Super Bowl LIII on the line, he’ll need to be at his best to slay the dragon.

Can the Chiefs continue the successful trend of running the football in January? In the five Patriots losses this season, they surrendered an average of 152 yards on the ground. In their 12 wins, that number plummets to 88.5. For the Chiefs to have any success through the air, they’ll have to establish the running game – one that produced 180 yards and four scores in the Divisional round. It will allow Andy Reid to open it up and give Mahomes his chances to go deep (the Chiefs led the league with 52 pass plays of 25 yards or more). And something to keep in mind with number 15 under center: against man coverage this season, Mahomes' 9.5 yards per attempt, 10.3 touchdown percentage (TD/pass attempts) and 121.3 passer rating were all league-high figures (NFL.com). Meanwhile, the Pats employ man coverage on 51.6 percent of their coverage snaps – the highest rate in the league (NFL.com). Will Belichick change his philosophy? If not, Mahomes will be Mahomes.

Prediction:

Tom Brady is 2-3 in AFC Championship games on the road – losing each of his last three… The Patriots were 3-5 away from Foxborough this season and averaged 12.2 PPG fewer, while allowing 6.1 PPG more on the road (NFL.com)... The Chiefs are 8-1 at home (including last week’s playoff win) this season… They average 32.2 PPG at Arrowhead… This is the first ever title game being hosted at Arrowhead Stadium (in its 46 years of use).

My mind says Pats, but my heart says Chiefs. Give me a fresh new face representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Kansas City 31, New England 27