2019 NFL Divisional Round Preview (Part I): Elite QBs / RBs take center stage

After a mildly entertaining wildcard weekend, it’s time for the top guns to stake their claims in moving one step closer to hoisting the Lombardi.

Recent history favors the top seeds. Nine out of the last 10 number one seeds have made it to the Super Bowl (NFL.com). Both (Kansas City and New Orleans) welcome tough opponents this weekend.

Saturday will see the top two passers (#1 & #2 in TD passes) and two of the top rushers (#1 & #3 in rushing yards) from the regular season square off.   

Game Previews

For what it’s worth: in five out of the last six postseasons, at least one road team has advanced to Conference Championship Sunday.

No. 6 Indianapolis Colts (11-6) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

All-time Divisional Round: Colts (8-10), Chiefs (2-8)

Strange but true: The Chiefs are 0-6 in their last six postseason games at home (NFL.com).

The last time these two met in the postseason? Andrew Luck orchestrated a 28-point comeback (second largest in NFL history) to stun the Chiefs 45-44. Enter 2019, and Luck & co. could be looking at another potential shootout. With two elite QBs behind center – Mahomes and Luck combined to throw 89 TDs this season, the most combined passing TDs by opposing starting QBs in a playoff game in NFL history (NFLResearch) – offense should be on full display come Saturday.

The Colts continue their postseason run with a trip to one of the loudest venues in all of sports after an impressive 21-7 win over the Texans. RB Marlon Mack carried the load, totaling 148 yards and a TD on 24 carries – the first RB this season to surpass the century mark against the Texans (previous high was 82, Saquon Barkley). They’ll need a similar performance from the second-year pro in order to keep the explosive Chiefs offense off the field. On paper, the advantage leans heavily toward Indy, as Kansas City surrendered 132 yards per game on the ground (27^th) during the regular season. But the Colts will need to couple the run game with Luck’s ability to dissect a middling secondary to go toe-to-toe with one of the best offenses in the game. If Luck’s pocket stays clean, watch out. If not, the Chiefs offense might be too tough to overcome.

Mahomes hopes to continue his all-time season (The Ringer).

It’s no secret for the Chiefs. Lean on what got you to this point. In just his first full season under center, MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes (second player in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 TDs) gets his shot to deliver to a yearning fan base – one that hasn’t seen a postseason win at arrowhead since 1993. He heads the number one ranked offense (averaged the most yards - 425.6 and points per game - 35.3) behind a bevy of playmakers – including speedster Tyreek Hill (16 TDs of 50+ yards in his career and fourth most receiving yards this season) and tight-end Travis Kelce (second most catches - 103, yards - 1,336 and TDs - 10 among TEs this season).

The offense should be able to put up points, but can the defense get the stops? Believe it or not, the Chiefs tied for the league lead in sacks this season with 52 and are the only team to boast two top-10 edge defenders in pressure rate – Dee Ford and Justin Houston (NFL.com). Against one of the best offensive lines in football, they’ll need to make plays in the backfield. Otherwise, Luck will have a field day against its secondary.

Indianapolis is 4-0 all-time against Kansas City in the playoffs. Andy Reid is 1-6 in his last seven playoff games. But the Chiefs have to break through eventually, right?

Prediction: Kansas City 34, Indianapolis 31

No. 4 Dallas Cowboys (11-6) at No. 2 Los Angeles Rams (13-3)

Strange but true: Last week, Dak Prescott became the first QB in franchise history to rush for a TD and throw for a TD in the same game in the postseason (NFLResearch).

Primetime in Los Angeles. America’s team vs. one of the league’s most exciting offenses. A matchup of the two best running backs in the game. It doesn’t get much better than this. In fact, it will be the fourth playoff matchup since 1970 between players (Elliott & Gurley) to lead the NFL in rushing yards since the season they were drafted (NFLResearch). Gurley has tallied 4,547 yards since he was drafted in 2015, while Elliott has recorded 4,048 on the ground since being drafted in 2016.

The ‘Boys are back! Or are they? Since 1996, Dallas is 0-5 in the divisional round (NFLResearch). Enter 2019, and this version relies on a steady workhorse and an improving defense to complicate its opponents. Elliott – the league leader in rushing yards – provided another masterful performance in his team’s 24-22 wildcard win over Seattle, toting the ball 26 times for 137 yards and a score, while adding four catches for 32 yards. The addition of Amari Cooper (seven catches, 106 yards) has done wonders for Dak Prescott and the offense. And that’s where this game starts and ends. Not with Elliott surpassing the century mark (yes that would help). Not with the defense containing the potent Rams offense (of course that would help too). But with Prescott.

The three-year veteran’s career record (including playoffs) when he doesn’t turn the ball over: 24-2. When he records 1+ giveaway: 8-15 (NFL). Can the O-line contain DPOY favorite Aaron Donald enough to give Prescott a clean pocket? They’ll need to in order to get to their magic number of 20 – the Cowboys are 10-0 this season when they score 20 or more points in a game (1-6 when they don’t).  

Prescott shines brightest on the national stage (Radio.com). 

It’s a familiar feeling for the Rams - hosting a playoff game in primetime. Just a season ago, the Rams disappointed in bowing out of the first round at home to the Falcons. Goff and company are hoping to lean on that experience for a better result this time around. They bring with it a high-octane offense (ranked second in yards and points) that presents a number of mismatches thanks to Sean McVay’s creativity. Goff and Gurley are the linchpins that spur the offense.

In 14 games, Gurley turned 315 touches into 1,831 yards and 21 TDs. The Rams will need him to be at his best to advance. But ultimately, much like Dallas, the man under center is the key. Goff, who was in the MVP conversation for much of the first half of the season, saw his production drop substantially over the team’s latter half. In the final six games of the season, Goff averaged 190.2 yards per contest, completed just 58.9 percent (106/180) of his passes, and had a TD-INT ratio of 6-6. The three-year pro out of Cal will have his hands full against the league’s seventh ranked defense (allowing 20.3 per game). There’s not a better opportunity for him to deliver.

The Rams were 7-1 at home this season. The Cowboys were 3-5 away from Jerry world. Either the Rams run away with it, or the Cowboys win a close one… Dak lives for these moments. Since 2016 (including playoffs), Prescott has the most game-winning drives (15) and most primetime wins (13) than any other QB in the league (NFLResearch).

Prediction: Dallas 26, Los Angeles 24