Two more teams seek to punch their tickets to Conference Championship weekend. It brings three Super Bowl MVPs to the party and a QB seeking his first ever trip to the big dance. Can the Chargers continue their winning ways on the road? Can Foles continue his magic and lead the defending champs past Brees in the Big Easy?
Game Previews
No. 5 Los Angeles
Chargers (13-4) at No. 2 New England Patriots (11-5)
All-time Divisional Round: Chargers (4-7), Patriots (15-6)
Strange but true: With
eight road wins (including playoffs) and a "home" win in London, the
Chargers are the eighth team since the 1970 merger to win at least nine games
outside of their home stadium in a season. The previous seven teams all went on to win the
Super Bowl that season (NFL.com).
Road warriors vs. the only unbeaten team at home this season. A matchup
of two of the most storied passers in the game. Philip Rivers and Tom Brady
will be the third pair of opposing playoff quarterbacks with at least 50,000
career passing yards (entering the game). The difference? Super Bowls.
Something Rivers has never had the chance to compete for in his 15-year career.
Can he keep the Cinderella story going?
The tough road
continues for the Bolts. A week after traveling across the country to play the
Ravens, Anthony Lynn’s group heads east yet again. This time for a date with
arguably the most accomplished franchise in NFL history - a team
that never loses in Foxborough. But would his team want it any other way? Ask
them, and probably not, especially with #17 manning the ship. Rivers will need
to play at an elite level to upset one of the all-time greats on his own turf.
It starts with converting trips inside the red zone into touchdowns instead of
field goals. The Pats are known for giving up yards (ranked 21st,
allowing 359.1 per game), but shrinking the field inside the 20 (ranked seventh
in points allowed, 20.3). If the Chargers want any shot, they’ll have to score
six instead of three. The return of TE Hunter Henry (who missed the entire season) could be an x-factor in doing just that.
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| Bosa & Ingram will be tasked with making Brady uncomfortable in the pocket (Chargers Wire). |
The juggernaut of the last decade and beyond looks to
continue yet another postseason ride. After an ‘underachieving’ regular season of sorts for an aging Brady
and company (10th straight AFC East title), the Patriots keep on keeping on, seeking their eighth consecutive trip to the Conference Championship (and fourth Super Bowl appearance in the
last five). They enter Sunday’s showdown with a healthy 41-year old behind center ready to exploit
everything the Bolts do well. Not to mention in the comforts of Gillette Stadium, where Belichick
and Brady have won eight straight postseason games (last home loss to AFC
opponent was 2012 AFC Championship vs. Baltimore, NFL.com).
With the Chargers lacking much strength/depth at the linebacker level, expect the Pats to turn to the power run game early to open up the pass, with RB Sony Michel - second to only Saquon Barkley in rushing YPG among rookies - the beneficiary (of a heavy workload). With a full compliment of weapons at Brady's disposal and an extra week off, LA will have to find ways to pressure the QB to have any chance. If not, it will be the same old story.
Just about every possible stat is against Rivers and the Bolts in this one… The Chargers have never won multiple road games in a single postseason… LA became the eighth team since 2002 to win 12-plus games
and not win the division. None of the previous seven such teams made the Super
Bowl and only one of the previous seven made a Conference Championship
(NFL.com)... Bill Belichick is 6-1 against coaches in their first postseason – his
only loss came in last season's Super Bowl LII to Doug Pederson (NFL.com)… Brady is 7-0 against
Rivers in his career (including playoffs). On and on and on.
None of it matters Sunday. The Chargers play well enough to win, but the Pats get a call late (as they always do) to advance.
Prediction: New England 24, Los Angeles 20
No. 6 Philadelphia
Eagles (10-7) at No. 1 New Orleans Saints (13-3)
All-time Divisional Round: Eagles (8-6), Saints (2-4)
Strange but true:
The 2010 Jets are the only team in NFL history to lose to an opponent (the
Patriots) by 40+ points in the regular season and then beat that same opponent
in the playoffs. They are also the last six seed to win a Divisional Round
playoff game (NFL.com). The Eagles enter Sunday in a familiar spot – as the
number six seed, with a 48-7 loss to the Saints earlier this season.
It's the defending Super Bowl champs against a team looking for
redemption from a season ago. A matchup between Drew
The Eagles continue to ride the fairy-tale story of Nick
Foles, who capped a game-winning 12-play, 60-yard drive with a TD pass on
fourth down with 0:56 seconds left to stun the Bears in the wild card round.
Can he and his mates do it again by knocking off the Super Bowl favorites? If
the Eagles have shown anything in the past two seasons, it’s that they play at
their best with their backs against the wall. We all know the story last season, when they lost MVP
favorite Carson Wentz for the season in week 14 and Foles took over & the offense
didn’t skip a beat – all the way to the Super Bowl – proving doubter after
doubter wrong.
Enter this season, where Philly sat at 4-6 with six weeks remaining and slim playoff
hopes. They went 5-1 down the stretch to sneak in as the six seed. And here we
go again. Underdogs against a team that is virtually unbeatable at home. If
there’s any team that can shock the world, it’d be this group. Foles will have
to lean on his play-making trio (Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate, and Zach Ertz) to
keep up with one of the all-time greats. Something he is more than capable of
doing (i.e. out-dueling Tom Brady in the Super Bowl last year). And don’t forget, this Eagles bunch will have some extra motivation
after that 48-7 pasting back in week 11.
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| The all-time leader in passing yards is looking to add a second ring to his resume (twincities.com). |
Last season, New Orleans was a Minnesota Miracle away from
getting its shot at the Eagles for a trip to the Super Bowl – one that RB Alvin
Kamara believed the Saints would have won. Now, they get that opportunity. At
home, where Drew Brees has never lost (5-0) in the postseason – the only QB in
the Super Bowl era with 5+ home wins and zero home losses in the playoffs.
(NFL.com). It’s Kamara – who totaled 1,592 yards and 18 TDs – that presents a
nightmare matchup with Brees under center (a la the days of Darren Sproles, who
happens to be on the opposing sideline). And then there’s WR Michael Thomas who
led the NFL in catches (125) and was sixth in yards (1,405). An x-factor could
be Ted Ginn Jr., who returned from injury in week 16 and always seems to make a big play or two in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the defense will have to find a way to get
pressure on Foles without blitzing. Otherwise, it could spell doom. According
to Next Gen Stats (NFL.com), the Saints achieve pressure when blitzing on just
34.5 percent of such plays and allow 9.0 yards per attempt (30th in the NFL),
14 touchdowns (T-30th) and a passer rating of 104.4 (25th). Meanwhile, Foles is
first in the NFL in completion percentage against the blitz (74.5), passer
rating (125.7), and second in TD-INT ratio (4:0). If the defense can't get to Foles, look out. This will verge on the side of a shootout.
This has all the makings of a classic. And it will be much closer this time around. Brees at home is just
too hard to go against.
Prediction: New Orleans 30, Philadelphia 27
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