2019 NFC Championship Preview: Hollywood invades the Big Easy

For the first time in the Super Bowl era, the top four scoring offenses – Chiefs 35.3 PPG (1^st), Rams 32.9 PPG (2^nd), Saints 31.5 PPG (3^rd), and Patriots 27.3 PPG (4^th) – will be represented in the Conference Championship (NFL.com). It will be an offensive showcase of epic proportions with the young guns – Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff – trying to eliminate a pair of all-time greats and former Super Bowl MVPs – Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

In years past, the advantage favors the teams playing at home. Away teams haven't won a Conference title since 2012 (when both the Ravens & 49ers won). And remember, nine out of the last ten number one seeds have made it to the Super Bowl. Can the Chiefs and Saints follow suit? 

Four teams. Two tickets to Atlanta. One dream of hoisting the Lombardi. 

Game Preview

No. 2 Los Angeles Rams (14-3) at No. 1 New Orleans Saints (14-3)

All-time NFC Championship: Rams (3-6), Saints (1-1)

It’s a battle of the Sean’s in a rematch of a week 9 donnybrook in the Big Easy. The venue remains unchanged. The stakes… heightened. Can the fresh new offense return Hollywood to the big game? Or will Brees and Payton get a shot to add a second Lombardi to their resumes?

The lightning/thunder combo of Gurley-Anderson has provided a prominent wrinkle to the Rams offense (New York Post). 

The Rams will win if: they run the ball 30+ times or reach 100 yards on the ground.  

One way to keep the high-octane Saints offense off the field (and keep the crowd from being a factor)? Running the football. Something the Rams have prospered with all season long. The difficulty in such a plan? The Saints were one of the best this season at stopping the run – ranked number two in rushing yards allowed per game (80.2) – and didn’t allow a single back to reach 100 yards (most was 75 to Ezekiel Elliott). Part of the reason too is that Drew Brees and company force teams to abandon the run early by creating big leads (which was the case in the first meeting between these two).

The blue print is there. In each of the three Saints losses this season, the opponent rushed 30 times or more. In its 14 wins? The opponent failed to reach that mark. On the flip side, the Rams are 9-0 this season when recording 30 or more carries in a game, but a more modest 5-3 when they don’t (including the week 9 loss to the Saints). Even more imperative, Sean McVay’s group is 12-0 this season (including playoffs) when they rush for 100 yards or more in a game (2-3 when they don’t). It won’t be easy, especially if a shootout ensues, but the Rams have the resources and creative play calling to accomplish such a successful game plan.

In the last three weeks, LA has leaned on its smash mouth mentality, averaging a 1960s-esque 44 carries and 232.3 yards per game. On Saturday, they piled up a franchise postseason record 273 yards (on 48 attempts) to overwhelm Dallas. It was the dynamic RB duo of Todd Gurley (16 for 115) and newly-minted C.J. Anderson (23 for 123) – the first tandem since 1997 to each eclipse the century mark in rushing in the same playoff game (NFLResearch) – that carried the load. Leaning on the ground game this time of the year almost always produces positive results. Can the Rams continue riding their prominent rushing attack? They’ll need to in order to advance.

Brees' favorite target had a career high 211 yards on 12 catches the first go round. He'll be a point of emphasis in the rematch (SB Nation). 

The Saints will win if: they force the Rams to be one-dimensional.

In the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era, there are few advantages greater than playing at home in the postseason – a perfect 6-0. And while the advantage speaks for itself, LA poses arguably the toughest threat to ending that streak as any team in the league. For the Saints, the offense should provide its usual production. But for the defense, it starts with flipping the script on the run-oriented Rams – who have tallied 41, 42, and 48 carries (respectively) in their last three games – by making them pass-heavy. Forcing Jared Goff to out-duel one of the all-time greats in Brees (on his own turf). It won’t be an easy task, especially with run-stuffer DT Sheldon Rankins now on the sidelines, but one that will go a long way in determining the host’s success.    

In the Saints last nine games (including playoffs), their defense has been outstanding, totaling 32 sacks (3.5 per), allowing 303.7 yards (223.6 passing, 80.1 rushing) per contest, while surrendering a league-low 16.6 points per game. And even though they failed to sack Foles in the Divisional round, they stifled the Eagles offense, holding them to 250 total yards (49 on the ground) and 14 points (zero in quarters 2-4). They forced Foles into some tough situations, including two key interceptions - an important stat to keep in mind. The Saints are 10-0 this season when tallying at least one interception in a game (a pedestrian 4-3 when they don’t).   

Several reasons point to Sean Payton’s group selling out to stop the run. One, they haven’t lost a game this season when the opposition has failed to carry the rock 30 times. Two, Goff’s production has steadily declined since his incredible performance in week 11 against the Chiefs. Since that Monday Night shootout, the three-year pro has completed just 58.2 percent of his passes (121-of-208), and averaged 210 yards passing per contest with a TD-INT ratio of 6-6. Sure, part of it is due to the Rams becoming run-centric, but relying on Goff to beat you threw the air should present an advantage for the Big Easy.

Prediction:

The Saints are 7-2 (7-1 in meaningful games) at home this season and have never lost at the Superdome in the postseason. The Rams seem to be clicking on all cylinders and have the advantage of already experiencing the Superdome this season.

Until Brees-Payton lose at home, it's hard to go against the Saints.

New Orleans 27, Los Angeles 26