2019 AFC Championship Preview: Time to Pass the Torch?

For the first time in the Super Bowl era, the top four scoring offenses – Chiefs 35.3 PPG (1^st), Rams 32.9 PPG (2^nd), Saints 31.5 PPG (3^rd), and Patriots 27.3 PPG (4^th) – are playing in the Conference Championship (NFL.com). It will be an offensive showcase of epic proportions with the young guns – Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff – trying to eliminate a pair of all-time greats and former Super Bowl MVPs – Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

In years past, the advantage favors the team playing at home. Away teams haven’t won a Conference title since 2012 (when both the Ravens & 49ers won). And remember, nine out of the last ten number one seeds have made it to the Super Bowl. Can the Saints and Chiefs follow suit? 

Four teams. Two tickets to Atlanta. One dream of hoisting the Lombardi. 

Game Preview

No. 2 New England Patriots (12-5) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

All-time AFC Championship: Patriots (10-4), Chiefs (2-1)

Strange but true: Tom Brady is more than 18 years older than Patrick Mahomes, the largest age gap ever by two starting QBs in a playoff game (NFL.com).

Just like the NFC, it’s a rematch from the regular season – one that totaled a combined 946 yards and 83 points. The difference is that this one will be played in Arrowhead. It’s only the second postseason meeting ever between these two franchises (the Patriots won 27-20 in 2015). And a matchup of the two winningest active head coaches in the game (1. Belichick – 290, 2. Reid – 207). Believe it or not, even with all of the success, both tend to struggle in playoff games involving a rematch from the regular season. Since 2001, Belichick is 12-9 in postseason games vs teams he faced in the regular season (16-1 vs teams he didn’t face), while Reid is 6-10 in said rematches (6-3 vs teams he didn’t, NFLResearch). 

James White is Brady's dink-and-dunk magnet (Patriots Wire).

The Patriots will win if: they run for 100 yards.

Here we go again. Playing in their NFL-record eighth consecutive conference championship, the Pats continue to be an annoyance to the rest of the league, and everyone… outside of Boston. No matter who they trot on to the field, as long as #12 is behind center, they show no signs of slowing. Brady – who has more playoff wins (28) than any QB has playoff starts – was as crisp as ever in the Pats Divisional round disposal of the Chargers. Like clockwork, he completed 77 percent (34-of-44) of his passes for 343 yards and a touchdown. On tap Sunday is a matchup with the 31^st ranked defense (27^th in rushing, 31^st in passing) from the regular season.

We all know Belichick will have a game plan for slowing Mahomes and the league’s number one offense. Part of that will almost certainly come in the form of running the football with rookie RB Sony Michel – who ran for a rookie franchise record 129 yards and three TDs against the Bolts. Not only will it keep the high-octane Chiefs offense off the field, but it will open up the passing game enough for Brady to do what he does best. And keep this in mind… the Patriots are a perfect 10-0 (including playoffs) this season when they rush for 100 yards or more in a game (2-5 when they don’t). In tough conditions on the road, expect a heavy dose of the running game – one that has averaged 149 yards a game since the calendar changed to December.   

No. 15 has an opportunity to send the Chiefs to the big game for the first time since '69 (SB Nation). 

The Chiefs will win if: Patrick Mahomes plays like Patrick Mahomes.

Whether it’s the brilliant coaching of Bill Belichick or the overwhelming task of taking down such a juggernaut, teams almost always become inept at figuring out how to overcome such a mission in the postseason. So before the Chiefs trot out their number one offense onto the field, remember this: when Belichick plays against the number one offense in the postseason, he is 5-1 and holds his opponents to an average of 19 PPG (NFLonESPN). The Chiefs haven’t scored fewer than 26 points in a game all season. So can a QB making just his 18^th career start solve the riddle? If this season has been any indication, the resounding answer is yes.

Nothing has phased first-year starter and MVP-favorite Patrick Mahomes all season long. Not the confines of Gillette Stadium in primetime, where he went toe-to-toe with an all-time great in Brady (352 yards and 4 TDs). Not the number one defense (Ravens) invading Arrowhead, where he led a last second drive (amidst 348 yards passing and 2 TDs) to send the game to OT and steal a win. Not the Monday Night showdown in LA, where he threw for 478 yards and six TDs. Not even his first postseason start, where he led KC to its first playoff win at home since 1993. Quite simply, the second-year pro out of Texas Tech has been better than advertised, taking the Chiefs to new heights this season. And a win on Sunday would give him something the franchise hasn’t achieved since 1969 – a Conference Championship and a trip to the Super Bowl.

Obviously, he and his mates welcome a different beast on Sunday. A QB-HC duo that has played in more postseason games than most franchises – a tandem seeking its unprecedented ninth trip to the Super Bowl (and sixth title). None of that seems to matter to Mahomes – who joined Brady as the only QBs in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 TDs in a season. With a trip to Super Bowl LIII on the line, he’ll need to be at his best to slay the dragon.

Can the Chiefs continue the successful trend of running the football in January? In the five Patriots losses this season, they surrendered an average of 152 yards on the ground. In their 12 wins, that number plummets to 88.5. For the Chiefs to have any success through the air, they’ll have to establish the running game – one that produced 180 yards and four scores in the Divisional round. It will allow Andy Reid to open it up and give Mahomes his chances to go deep (the Chiefs led the league with 52 pass plays of 25 yards or more). And something to keep in mind with number 15 under center: against man coverage this season, Mahomes' 9.5 yards per attempt, 10.3 touchdown percentage (TD/pass attempts) and 121.3 passer rating were all league-high figures (NFL.com). Meanwhile, the Pats employ man coverage on 51.6 percent of their coverage snaps – the highest rate in the league (NFL.com). Will Belichick change his philosophy? If not, Mahomes will be Mahomes.

Prediction:

Tom Brady is 2-3 in AFC Championship games on the road – losing each of his last three… The Patriots were 3-5 away from Foxborough this season and averaged 12.2 PPG fewer, while allowing 6.1 PPG more on the road (NFL.com)... The Chiefs are 8-1 at home (including last week’s playoff win) this season… They average 32.2 PPG at Arrowhead… This is the first ever title game being hosted at Arrowhead Stadium (in its 46 years of use).

My mind says Pats, but my heart says Chiefs. Give me a fresh new face representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

Kansas City 31, New England 27

2019 NFC Championship Preview: Hollywood invades the Big Easy

For the first time in the Super Bowl era, the top four scoring offenses – Chiefs 35.3 PPG (1^st), Rams 32.9 PPG (2^nd), Saints 31.5 PPG (3^rd), and Patriots 27.3 PPG (4^th) – will be represented in the Conference Championship (NFL.com). It will be an offensive showcase of epic proportions with the young guns – Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff – trying to eliminate a pair of all-time greats and former Super Bowl MVPs – Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

In years past, the advantage favors the teams playing at home. Away teams haven't won a Conference title since 2012 (when both the Ravens & 49ers won). And remember, nine out of the last ten number one seeds have made it to the Super Bowl. Can the Chiefs and Saints follow suit? 

Four teams. Two tickets to Atlanta. One dream of hoisting the Lombardi. 

Game Preview

No. 2 Los Angeles Rams (14-3) at No. 1 New Orleans Saints (14-3)

All-time NFC Championship: Rams (3-6), Saints (1-1)

It’s a battle of the Sean’s in a rematch of a week 9 donnybrook in the Big Easy. The venue remains unchanged. The stakes… heightened. Can the fresh new offense return Hollywood to the big game? Or will Brees and Payton get a shot to add a second Lombardi to their resumes?

The lightning/thunder combo of Gurley-Anderson has provided a prominent wrinkle to the Rams offense (New York Post). 

The Rams will win if: they run the ball 30+ times or reach 100 yards on the ground.  

One way to keep the high-octane Saints offense off the field (and keep the crowd from being a factor)? Running the football. Something the Rams have prospered with all season long. The difficulty in such a plan? The Saints were one of the best this season at stopping the run – ranked number two in rushing yards allowed per game (80.2) – and didn’t allow a single back to reach 100 yards (most was 75 to Ezekiel Elliott). Part of the reason too is that Drew Brees and company force teams to abandon the run early by creating big leads (which was the case in the first meeting between these two).

The blue print is there. In each of the three Saints losses this season, the opponent rushed 30 times or more. In its 14 wins? The opponent failed to reach that mark. On the flip side, the Rams are 9-0 this season when recording 30 or more carries in a game, but a more modest 5-3 when they don’t (including the week 9 loss to the Saints). Even more imperative, Sean McVay’s group is 12-0 this season (including playoffs) when they rush for 100 yards or more in a game (2-3 when they don’t). It won’t be easy, especially if a shootout ensues, but the Rams have the resources and creative play calling to accomplish such a successful game plan.

In the last three weeks, LA has leaned on its smash mouth mentality, averaging a 1960s-esque 44 carries and 232.3 yards per game. On Saturday, they piled up a franchise postseason record 273 yards (on 48 attempts) to overwhelm Dallas. It was the dynamic RB duo of Todd Gurley (16 for 115) and newly-minted C.J. Anderson (23 for 123) – the first tandem since 1997 to each eclipse the century mark in rushing in the same playoff game (NFLResearch) – that carried the load. Leaning on the ground game this time of the year almost always produces positive results. Can the Rams continue riding their prominent rushing attack? They’ll need to in order to advance.

Brees' favorite target had a career high 211 yards on 12 catches the first go round. He'll be a point of emphasis in the rematch (SB Nation). 

The Saints will win if: they force the Rams to be one-dimensional.

In the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era, there are few advantages greater than playing at home in the postseason – a perfect 6-0. And while the advantage speaks for itself, LA poses arguably the toughest threat to ending that streak as any team in the league. For the Saints, the offense should provide its usual production. But for the defense, it starts with flipping the script on the run-oriented Rams – who have tallied 41, 42, and 48 carries (respectively) in their last three games – by making them pass-heavy. Forcing Jared Goff to out-duel one of the all-time greats in Brees (on his own turf). It won’t be an easy task, especially with run-stuffer DT Sheldon Rankins now on the sidelines, but one that will go a long way in determining the host’s success.    

In the Saints last nine games (including playoffs), their defense has been outstanding, totaling 32 sacks (3.5 per), allowing 303.7 yards (223.6 passing, 80.1 rushing) per contest, while surrendering a league-low 16.6 points per game. And even though they failed to sack Foles in the Divisional round, they stifled the Eagles offense, holding them to 250 total yards (49 on the ground) and 14 points (zero in quarters 2-4). They forced Foles into some tough situations, including two key interceptions - an important stat to keep in mind. The Saints are 10-0 this season when tallying at least one interception in a game (a pedestrian 4-3 when they don’t).   

Several reasons point to Sean Payton’s group selling out to stop the run. One, they haven’t lost a game this season when the opposition has failed to carry the rock 30 times. Two, Goff’s production has steadily declined since his incredible performance in week 11 against the Chiefs. Since that Monday Night shootout, the three-year pro has completed just 58.2 percent of his passes (121-of-208), and averaged 210 yards passing per contest with a TD-INT ratio of 6-6. Sure, part of it is due to the Rams becoming run-centric, but relying on Goff to beat you threw the air should present an advantage for the Big Easy.

Prediction:

The Saints are 7-2 (7-1 in meaningful games) at home this season and have never lost at the Superdome in the postseason. The Rams seem to be clicking on all cylinders and have the advantage of already experiencing the Superdome this season.

Until Brees-Payton lose at home, it's hard to go against the Saints.

New Orleans 27, Los Angeles 26   

2019 NFL Divisional Round Preview (Part II): Rivers Gets His Shot to Slay the Dragon

Two more teams seek to punch their tickets to Conference Championship weekend. It brings three Super Bowl MVPs to the party and a QB seeking his first ever trip to the big dance. Can the Chargers continue their winning ways on the road? Can Foles continue his magic and lead the defending champs past Brees in the Big Easy?

Game Previews

No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (13-4) at No. 2 New England Patriots (11-5)

All-time Divisional Round: Chargers (4-7), Patriots (15-6)

Strange but true: With eight road wins (including playoffs) and a "home" win in London, the Chargers are the eighth team since the 1970 merger to win at least nine games outside of their home stadium in a season. The previous seven teams all went on to win the Super Bowl that season (NFL.com).

Road warriors vs. the only unbeaten team at home this season. A matchup of two of the most storied passers in the game. Philip Rivers and Tom Brady will be the third pair of opposing playoff quarterbacks with at least 50,000 career passing yards (entering the game). The difference? Super Bowls. Something Rivers has never had the chance to compete for in his 15-year career. Can he keep the Cinderella story going?

The tough road continues for the Bolts. A week after traveling across the country to play the Ravens, Anthony Lynn’s group heads east yet again. This time for a date with arguably the most accomplished franchise in NFL history - a team that never loses in Foxborough. But would his team want it any other way? Ask them, and probably not, especially with #17 manning the ship. Rivers will need to play at an elite level to upset one of the all-time greats on his own turf. It starts with converting trips inside the red zone into touchdowns instead of field goals. The Pats are known for giving up yards (ranked 21^st, allowing 359.1 per game), but shrinking the field inside the 20 (ranked seventh in points allowed, 20.3). If the Chargers want any shot, they’ll have to score six instead of three. The return of TE Hunter Henry (who missed the entire season) could be an x-factor in doing just that. 

Bosa & Ingram will be tasked with making Brady uncomfortable in the pocket (Chargers Wire). 

The juggernaut of the last decade and beyond looks to continue yet another postseason ride. After an ‘underachieving’ regular season of sorts for an aging Brady and company (10th straight AFC East title), the Patriots keep on keeping on, seeking their eighth consecutive trip to the Conference Championship (and fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five). They enter Sunday’s showdown with a healthy 41-year old behind center ready to exploit everything the Bolts do well. Not to mention in the comforts of Gillette Stadium, where Belichick and Brady have won eight straight postseason games (last home loss to AFC opponent was 2012 AFC Championship vs. Baltimore, NFL.com). 

With the Chargers lacking much strength/depth at the linebacker level, expect the Pats to turn to the power run game early to open up the pass, with RB Sony Michel - second to only Saquon Barkley in rushing YPG among rookies - the beneficiary (of a heavy workload). With a full compliment of weapons at Brady's disposal and an extra week off, LA will have to find ways to pressure the QB to have any chance. If not, it will be the same old story. 

Just about every possible stat is against Rivers and the Bolts in this one… The Chargers have never won multiple road games in a single postseason… LA became the eighth team since 2002 to win 12-plus games and not win the division. None of the previous seven such teams made the Super Bowl and only one of the previous seven made a Conference Championship (NFL.com)... Bill Belichick is 6-1 against coaches in their first postseason – his only loss came in last season's Super Bowl LII to Doug Pederson (NFL.com)… Brady is 7-0 against Rivers in his career (including playoffs). On and on and on. 

None of it matters Sunday. The Chargers play well enough to win, but the Pats get a call late (as they always do) to advance. 

Prediction: New England 24, Los Angeles 20

No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) at No. 1 New Orleans Saints (13-3)

All-time Divisional Round: Eagles (8-6), Saints (2-4)

Strange but true: The 2010 Jets are the only team in NFL history to lose to an opponent (the Patriots) by 40+ points in the regular season and then beat that same opponent in the playoffs. They are also the last six seed to win a Divisional Round playoff game (NFL.com). The Eagles enter Sunday in a familiar spot – as the number six seed, with a 48-7 loss to the Saints earlier this season.  

It's the defending Super Bowl champs against a team looking for redemption from a season ago. A matchup between Drew Brees and Nick Foles - who will make history, becoming the only Super Bowl MVPs who attended the same high school to face off in a playoff game (ESPN.com).

The Eagles continue to ride the fairy-tale story of Nick Foles, who capped a game-winning 12-play, 60-yard drive with a TD pass on fourth down with 0:56 seconds left to stun the Bears in the wild card round. Can he and his mates do it again by knocking off the Super Bowl favorites? If the Eagles have shown anything in the past two seasons, it’s that they play at their best with their backs against the wall. We all know the story last season, when they lost MVP favorite Carson Wentz for the season in week 14 and Foles took over & the offense didn’t skip a beat – all the way to the Super Bowl – proving doubter after doubter wrong.

Enter this season, where Philly sat at 4-6 with six weeks remaining and slim playoff hopes. They went 5-1 down the stretch to sneak in as the six seed. And here we go again. Underdogs against a team that is virtually unbeatable at home. If there’s any team that can shock the world, it’d be this group. Foles will have to lean on his play-making trio (Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate, and Zach Ertz) to keep up with one of the all-time greats. Something he is more than capable of doing (i.e. out-dueling Tom Brady in the Super Bowl last year). And don’t forget, this Eagles bunch will have some extra motivation after that 48-7 pasting back in week 11.

The all-time leader in passing yards is looking to add a second ring to his resume (twincities.com). 

Last season, New Orleans was a Minnesota Miracle away from getting its shot at the Eagles for a trip to the Super Bowl – one that RB Alvin Kamara believed the Saints would have won. Now, they get that opportunity. At home, where Drew Brees has never lost (5-0) in the postseason – the only QB in the Super Bowl era with 5+ home wins and zero home losses in the playoffs. (NFL.com). It’s Kamara – who totaled 1,592 yards and 18 TDs – that presents a nightmare matchup with Brees under center (a la the days of Darren Sproles, who happens to be on the opposing sideline). And then there’s WR Michael Thomas who led the NFL in catches (125) and was sixth in yards (1,405). An x-factor could be Ted Ginn Jr., who returned from injury in week 16 and always seems to make a big play or two in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the defense will have to find a way to get pressure on Foles without blitzing. Otherwise, it could spell doom. According to Next Gen Stats (NFL.com), the Saints achieve pressure when blitzing on just 34.5 percent of such plays and allow 9.0 yards per attempt (30th in the NFL), 14 touchdowns (T-30th) and a passer rating of 104.4 (25th). Meanwhile, Foles is first in the NFL in completion percentage against the blitz (74.5), passer rating (125.7), and second in TD-INT ratio (4:0). If the defense can't get to Foles, look out. This will verge on the side of a shootout. 

This has all the makings of a classic. And it will be much closer this time around. Brees at home is just too hard to go against.

Prediction: New Orleans 30, Philadelphia 27

2019 NFL Divisional Round Preview (Part I): Elite QBs / RBs take center stage

After a mildly entertaining wildcard weekend, it’s time for the top guns to stake their claims in moving one step closer to hoisting the Lombardi.

Recent history favors the top seeds. Nine out of the last 10 number one seeds have made it to the Super Bowl (NFL.com). Both (Kansas City and New Orleans) welcome tough opponents this weekend.

Saturday will see the top two passers (#1 & #2 in TD passes) and two of the top rushers (#1 & #3 in rushing yards) from the regular season square off.   

Game Previews

For what it’s worth: in five out of the last six postseasons, at least one road team has advanced to Conference Championship Sunday.

No. 6 Indianapolis Colts (11-6) at No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

All-time Divisional Round: Colts (8-10), Chiefs (2-8)

Strange but true: The Chiefs are 0-6 in their last six postseason games at home (NFL.com).

The last time these two met in the postseason? Andrew Luck orchestrated a 28-point comeback (second largest in NFL history) to stun the Chiefs 45-44. Enter 2019, and Luck & co. could be looking at another potential shootout. With two elite QBs behind center – Mahomes and Luck combined to throw 89 TDs this season, the most combined passing TDs by opposing starting QBs in a playoff game in NFL history (NFLResearch) – offense should be on full display come Saturday.

The Colts continue their postseason run with a trip to one of the loudest venues in all of sports after an impressive 21-7 win over the Texans. RB Marlon Mack carried the load, totaling 148 yards and a TD on 24 carries – the first RB this season to surpass the century mark against the Texans (previous high was 82, Saquon Barkley). They’ll need a similar performance from the second-year pro in order to keep the explosive Chiefs offense off the field. On paper, the advantage leans heavily toward Indy, as Kansas City surrendered 132 yards per game on the ground (27^th) during the regular season. But the Colts will need to couple the run game with Luck’s ability to dissect a middling secondary to go toe-to-toe with one of the best offenses in the game. If Luck’s pocket stays clean, watch out. If not, the Chiefs offense might be too tough to overcome.

Mahomes hopes to continue his all-time season (The Ringer).

It’s no secret for the Chiefs. Lean on what got you to this point. In just his first full season under center, MVP favorite Patrick Mahomes (second player in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 TDs) gets his shot to deliver to a yearning fan base – one that hasn’t seen a postseason win at arrowhead since 1993. He heads the number one ranked offense (averaged the most yards - 425.6 and points per game - 35.3) behind a bevy of playmakers – including speedster Tyreek Hill (16 TDs of 50+ yards in his career and fourth most receiving yards this season) and tight-end Travis Kelce (second most catches - 103, yards - 1,336 and TDs - 10 among TEs this season).

The offense should be able to put up points, but can the defense get the stops? Believe it or not, the Chiefs tied for the league lead in sacks this season with 52 and are the only team to boast two top-10 edge defenders in pressure rate – Dee Ford and Justin Houston (NFL.com). Against one of the best offensive lines in football, they’ll need to make plays in the backfield. Otherwise, Luck will have a field day against its secondary.

Indianapolis is 4-0 all-time against Kansas City in the playoffs. Andy Reid is 1-6 in his last seven playoff games. But the Chiefs have to break through eventually, right?

Prediction: Kansas City 34, Indianapolis 31

No. 4 Dallas Cowboys (11-6) at No. 2 Los Angeles Rams (13-3)

Strange but true: Last week, Dak Prescott became the first QB in franchise history to rush for a TD and throw for a TD in the same game in the postseason (NFLResearch).

Primetime in Los Angeles. America’s team vs. one of the league’s most exciting offenses. A matchup of the two best running backs in the game. It doesn’t get much better than this. In fact, it will be the fourth playoff matchup since 1970 between players (Elliott & Gurley) to lead the NFL in rushing yards since the season they were drafted (NFLResearch). Gurley has tallied 4,547 yards since he was drafted in 2015, while Elliott has recorded 4,048 on the ground since being drafted in 2016.

The ‘Boys are back! Or are they? Since 1996, Dallas is 0-5 in the divisional round (NFLResearch). Enter 2019, and this version relies on a steady workhorse and an improving defense to complicate its opponents. Elliott – the league leader in rushing yards – provided another masterful performance in his team’s 24-22 wildcard win over Seattle, toting the ball 26 times for 137 yards and a score, while adding four catches for 32 yards. The addition of Amari Cooper (seven catches, 106 yards) has done wonders for Dak Prescott and the offense. And that’s where this game starts and ends. Not with Elliott surpassing the century mark (yes that would help). Not with the defense containing the potent Rams offense (of course that would help too). But with Prescott.

The three-year veteran’s career record (including playoffs) when he doesn’t turn the ball over: 24-2. When he records 1+ giveaway: 8-15 (NFL). Can the O-line contain DPOY favorite Aaron Donald enough to give Prescott a clean pocket? They’ll need to in order to get to their magic number of 20 – the Cowboys are 10-0 this season when they score 20 or more points in a game (1-6 when they don’t).  

Prescott shines brightest on the national stage (Radio.com). 

It’s a familiar feeling for the Rams - hosting a playoff game in primetime. Just a season ago, the Rams disappointed in bowing out of the first round at home to the Falcons. Goff and company are hoping to lean on that experience for a better result this time around. They bring with it a high-octane offense (ranked second in yards and points) that presents a number of mismatches thanks to Sean McVay’s creativity. Goff and Gurley are the linchpins that spur the offense.

In 14 games, Gurley turned 315 touches into 1,831 yards and 21 TDs. The Rams will need him to be at his best to advance. But ultimately, much like Dallas, the man under center is the key. Goff, who was in the MVP conversation for much of the first half of the season, saw his production drop substantially over the team’s latter half. In the final six games of the season, Goff averaged 190.2 yards per contest, completed just 58.9 percent (106/180) of his passes, and had a TD-INT ratio of 6-6. The three-year pro out of Cal will have his hands full against the league’s seventh ranked defense (allowing 20.3 per game). There’s not a better opportunity for him to deliver.

The Rams were 7-1 at home this season. The Cowboys were 3-5 away from Jerry world. Either the Rams run away with it, or the Cowboys win a close one… Dak lives for these moments. Since 2016 (including playoffs), Prescott has the most game-winning drives (15) and most primetime wins (13) than any other QB in the league (NFLResearch).

Prediction: Dallas 26, Los Angeles 24

2019 NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview (Part II): Experience vs. Inexperience

Wildcard Weekend continues with two tasty match-ups on Sunday. Can the inexperience of a rookie be enough against a 15-year veteran? Can a first-year head coach and second-year QB dethrone the defending champs?

Game Previews

No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) at No. 4 Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

All-time Wild Card Round: Chargers (5-2), Ravens (7-1)

Strange but true: Lamar Jackson has the highest fourth quarter passer rating this season (minimum of six starts) of 119.9 (NFLResearch).

It’s the ultimate matchup of experience vs. youth. It’s 21 year old rookie Lamar Jackson facing 37 year old veteran Philip Rivers. Since 1990, rookie QBs are 1-4 in playoff games when facing a QB with 10 or more years of experience (NFLResearch). Ironically, the only rookie QB to win? The Ravens Joe Flacco.

It couldn’t be a worse matchup in the first round for the Chargers, especially after tying for the best record in the conference. Their ‘reward’ is traveling across the country for a second date with a team that dominated them just 15 days ago (held the Chargers to their fewest points (10), total yards (198) and pass yards (147) in a game this season, NFL.com). The good news? Philip Rivers is a perfect 3-0 in his career in the wild card round and the Bolts were a league-best 7-1 on the road this season (tied with the Saints). LA has the playmakers – Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams – to compete with the best of em, but the key will be in protecting Rivers. Not an easy task against the Ravens, who blitz QBs at the third-highest rate in the NFL (38.5 percent of QB dropbacks), generating 24 sacks and allowing a passer rating of 71.0 on such plays (NFL.com).

It's hard to find a more competitive player in the league than Rivers (SI.com). 

The Ravens are thriving with the ultra-athletic dual threat under center. Since Jackson took over in Week 11, the birds are 6-1 and leaning on a punishing rushing attack headed by him and Gus Edwards, who combined for 1,210 rush yards in that span – the most of any teammate duo in the league (NFL.com). But this is the playoffs – a different stage for rookie QBs. In the last five postseason appearances in which rookie QBs have started, all five lost. And since 2010, first-year passers are 2-7 in playoff tilts, with the only two wins coming in rookie versus rookie battles (NFL.com). Jackson must avoid mistakes and move the offense enough to leave the rest of the game in the hands of the league’s number one-ranked defense. If the Ravens can continue to run at a staggering rate, they’ll be hard to stop.

Everything seems to be against the Bolts in this one. But for the sake of Philip Rivers, no one deserves a shot to advance more than him.

Prediction: Los Angeles 20, Baltimore 16

No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) at No. 3 Chicago Bears (12-4)

All-time Wild Card Round: Eagles (7-8), Bears (2-2)

Here we go again. The defending champion Eagles find themselves in familiar territory – an underdog with backup QB Nick Foles manning the ship.

Would the City of Brotherly Love want anyone else behind center? Foles is 9-2 as a starter (including playoffs) since 2017. He is 4-1 this season, averaging 282.6 yards per contest. The difference this time around is that he’ll have to do it on the road against arguably the league’s best defense and one of the best pass rushers in Khalil Mack. The good news for the Eagles is that they’re familiar with elite defensive fronts, having faced Aaron Donald and the Texans duo (Watt & Clowney) down the stretch – only yielding one sack in that span. Giving Foles time in the pocket will be critical in finding the scoreboard this one. Meanwhile, the defense has been playing better of late, especially up front, recording 10 sacks and 24 QB hits over the final three games (NFL.com). The d-line was a major part of carrying the Eagles to the Super Bowl last season. They'll need to show up in a big way on Sunday.    

Mack has thrived at home this season (chicagobears.com).

Under first year head coach Matt Nagy, the Bears enter the playoffs for the first time since 2010 behind an incredible turnaround – going from worst to first in their division. Chicago enters this matchup with the top defense in the league – finished the regular season ranked first in scoring defense (17.7 points allowed per game), takeaways (36) and interceptions (27), and third in sacks (50) and turnover differential (+12). That in itself will be a tough out for a crazed fan base ready to dethrone the defending champs at home, where the Bears went 7-1 this season. But in a QB-driven league, the play of second-year pro Mitchell Trubisky will ultimately be the x-factor. 

Over the last 10 seasons, Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks are 9-1 against quarterbacks making their first playoff start in the wild-card round (NFL.com). In that same span, 8 of 13 first-year head coaches to make the playoffs have lost on Wild Card Weekend. The Eagles are battle-tested. The Bears, young and inexperienced. At home, the Bears do enough to unseat the champs.   

Prediction: Chicago 17, Philadelphia 9 

2019 NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview (Part I): Youth & Defense Dominate Spotlight

It’s a new year! And it brings a new season in the NFL: The postseason. The road to Super Bowl LIII begins with wildcard weekend as 12 teams vie for a chance to hoist the Lombardi.

2019 brings a youth movement and a fresh blend of new faces to the party, as seven newcomers enter the field who weren’t in the fold a season ago (Colts, Texans, Chargers, Ravens, Cowboys, Bears, and Seahawks). Half of the starting QBs are 25 or younger: Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson. That’s the most QBs 25 or younger in a single postseason in NFL history (Elias Sports).

Three of the four games on the slate this weekend are rematches from the regular season. Does home field matter? In five out of the last six seasons, at least one road team has won in the opening round of the playoffs. Last season saw two teams (Titans, Falcons) steal games away from home. The best candidate to do so this season? The Chargers, who went 7-1 away from LA. 

Game Previews

Saturday

No. 6 Indianapolis Colts (10-6) at No. 3 Houston Texans (11-5)

All-time Wild Card Round: Colts (6-6), Texans (3-1)

Strange but true: The Texans have never played a wild card game on the road – they’ve hosted all five (including Saturday) first round games.  

Not much separates these two AFC South division rivals. And if the two regular season encounters were any indication – both having been decided by three points (one in OT) – the rubber match is bound to follow suit.

Entering the postseason, there might not be a hotter team than Indianapolis. After starting the season 1-5, the Colts won nine out of their last 10 games, including four in a row, to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Comeback player of the year favorite Andrew Luck has returned to MVP form, enjoying the best completion percentage (67.3 percent), and second most yards (4,593) & touchdowns (39) of his career. His offensive line is a big reason why, as he was sacked a league-low 18 times this season (Drew Brees was sacked 17 times in one fewer game). A third of those sacks allowed (six) however came at the hands of Houston’s defensive front. Giving Luck a clean pocket will be key to fueling the Colts ‘upset’.  

What a comeback season it has been for #12 and the Colts (SBnation). 

The Texans return to the postseason after a one year hiatus, making their sixth appearance. They have never advanced past the divisional round. The one player that could end that drought? Deshaun Watson, who became the first player in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards & 25 TDs and rush for 500 yards in a single season (TexansPR). Not to mention the most underrated receiver in the league in DeAndre Hopkins, who caught a staggering (and career-high) 115 passes with ZERO drops. That connection will be key in the hosts advancing to the second weekend for just the fourth time in franchise history. So too will keeping Watson upright, who was sacked a league high 62 times this season. Meanwhile, the defense – ranked third in rush defense (82.7) and fourth in points allowed (19.8) – will have to get stops against the Colts seventh-ranked offense. Something they weren’t able to do the first two times around.

In the two previous contests this season, the teams combined for 116 points (58-58) and 1,695 yards, which included Luck throwing for 863 and six TDs, and Watson totaling 718 yards (642 passing, 76 rushing) and four TDs. Expect much of the same in this toss-up, with a turnover or big defensive play being the difference. 

Prediction: Indianapolis 24, Houston 20

No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (10-6) at No. 4 Dallas Cowboys (10-6)

All-time Wild Card Round: Seahawks (8-4), Cowboys (6-5)

A matchup of the league’s number one rushing offense (160 yards per game) against the league’s individual rushing leader (Ezekiel Elliott) – just the third time in the Super Bowl era that a playoff game will feature such a scenario (DanHanzus). In the previous two instances, the rushing champions (Earl Campbell & Emmitt Smith) led their teams to wins (Hanzus).

The Hawks enter this game making their sixth playoff appearance in the last seven seasons – albeit this time with a different cast of characters. The one constant? Russell Wilson. The main difference? An old school philosophy of running the football – the only team this season to run more than they passed. In a quarterback-driven, pass-friendly league, Pete Carroll has been the outlier, turning to a power-rushing attack with a trio of young backs led by Chris Carson. The three – all under the age of 25 – carried the league’s number one attack by combining to rush for 2,084 yards (Carson 1,151, Mike Davis 514, and Rashaad Penny 419) and 15 TDs. Yet, despite Seattle’s run-heavy approach, Wilson still had great success threw the air – finished third in the NFL in total deep passing yardage (1,108) – throwing for a career-high 35 touchdowns (Ringer). On the defense, it’s a team of underrated stars, led by All-Pro LB Bobby Wagner, who tallied 138 tackles and missed ZERO on the season. The key for Seattle will be containing Elliott, and controlling the clock with the run game to set up the deep ball with Wilson and Co.

Despite a run-heavy attack, Wilson had the third most passing TDs this season (12th Man Rising). 

America’s team returns to the postseason for the 33^rd time in franchise history, seeking its first win since 2014. They’ve relied heavily on their seventh-ranked defense and elusive tailback – Elliott rushed for a league-high 1,434 yards – for much of the season. Amari Cooper (who didn’t play in the week 3 matchup) has added some much-needed help on the outside and will be a huge factor in this one. Much like Seattle, Dallas is loaded with underrated talent on defense. A major key will be leaning on its fifth-ranked rush defense (94.6) and forcing Wilson into third-and-long situations. Ultimately, the magic number: 20. The Cowboys are 9-0 when they score 20 or more points this season (1-6 when they don’t).  

With two teams that are mirror images of each other, this is bound to come down to the final possession. I’ll take the experience and clutch factor of Mr. Wilson.

Prediction: Seattle 20, Dallas 17