A new decade brings a new postseason in the NFL. It brings a number of teams turning back the clock to the days of old when running the football reigned supreme. In a pass happy league, it has been the teams that have turned to the run that have found the most success this season. In fact, the top four rushing teams in the league all made the playoffs (including both top seeds - BAL & SF), while the top four passing teams failed to make the field of 12. Over half (7) of the teams to make the postseason possess a top 10 rushing offense. Only three sport a top 10 passing offense. Will that success translate?
The road to Super Bowl LIV begins with Wild Card weekend, as eight teams hope to keep their dreams of hoisting the Lombardi alive. 2020 brings five new teams from that of a year ago (BUF, TEN, SF, GB, & MIN). The 49ers are making their first trip since 2013 and are a number one seed for the first time since 1997. It’s a youth movement in the AFC, as four of the six starting quarterbacks are 24 years of age or younger (L. Jackson, P. Mahomes, D. Watson, & J. Allen). On the opposite side, the NFC brings a more balanced group of veterans, with half of the teams sporting a QB with six or more years of playoff experience (R. Wilson 6, A. Rodgers 8, & D. Brees 8).
The age old question: Will the New England emperor rule yet another year? Of the six teams in the AFC, five have a starting QB with one or zero years of postseason experience (Jackson 1, Mahomes 1, Watson 1, Allen 0, Tannehill 0). The outlier? Tom Brady, who will be making trip number 17. The Pats legend has more playoff wins (30) than the 11 other quarterbacks combined (26) (FoxSports).
How important is home field in the wild card round? In six out of the last seven seasons, at least one road team has won. Last season saw three teams (Colts, Chargers, Eagles) win away from home. The most likely candidates this season? The Seahawks, who went 7-1 away from Seattle, and the Bills, who went 6-2 away from New Era Field.
Saturday
No. 5 Buffalo Bills (10-6) at No. 4 Houston Texans (10-6)
All-time Wild Card Round: Bills (3-4), Texans (3-2)
Strange but true: The Texans have never played a wild card game on the road – they’ve hosted all six (including Saturday) first round games.
The first ever postseason meeting, this matchup pits two top-10 rushing offenses - Bills 8th (128.4), Texans 9th (125.6).
Buffalo is making just its second playoff appearance in the last 20 seasons (1999). They bring with it an ever-evolving, yet promising, young QB backed by a strong defense. The Bills ranked third in total defense, including second in points allowed per game (16.2). They allowed 25+ points once all season - tying several teams for fewest such games in a season in the last 80 years, one of which being the 1964 Bills, who went 12-2 and won the AFL Championship (NFLResearch).
In order to duplicate that title, it starts and ends with QB Josh Allen. Making his first postseason appearance, Allen leads an offense that ranked in the latter half of the league in both yards (24th) and points (23rd) per game. The Bills were just 3-6 when failing to score more than 17 points this season. The good news? They play a defense that surrendered an average of 24 points per contest.
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| Allen can continue to silence the doubters with a win on Saturday (bleacherreport). |
Enter 2020, and Houston brings a middling offense (ranked 13th in yards, 14th in points) behind an elite young quarterback in Deshaun Watson, but a struggling defense that surrendered 30+ points six times this season - one that entered Week 17 ranked No. 22 in Football Outsiders' DVOA, worst among any team that had qualified for the playoffs (ESPN). Watson ranked eighth in TD passes with 26, and seventh in QBR (68.9). He will have to be excellent in order for the hosts to advance. The challenge: finding a way to score more than 24 points, something the Bills have allowed only one team to do all season. When Watson and co. reach more than 24, they are 6-1 (4-5 when they don’t).
Which Watson will show up? If it’s primetime Watson, watch out. Otherwise, it could spell yet another disappointing end for Houston. Buffalo hasn’t lost a game this season (7-0) when scoring more than 17 points. They should reach that against the Texans 28th ranked defense to advance to the divisional round, winning their first playoff game since 1995.
Prediction: Bills 24, Texans 21
No. 6 Tennessee Titans (9-7) at No. 3 New England Patriots (12-4)
All-time Wild Card Round: Titans (8-5), Patriots (4-4)
Strange but true: Despite all of the success in the Brady/Belichick era, in the three times New England has failed to achieve a first round bye, they’ve also failed to make it to the Super Bowl. In fact, the franchise has never won a Super Bowl when having to play in the wild card round.
A matchup of lopsided proportions: A QB making his 41st postseason start against a QB making his first. Not to mention, Brady is 20-3 at home in the playoffs and won his last 10.
Obviously not an easy task, but there is reason for optimism for the visitors. After a rocky start to the season had them sitting at 2-4, Tennessee turned to seven-year veteran Ryan Tannehill (his first season with the team) to man the ship. He instantly sparked the offense, leading the Titans to a 7-3 mark and the final wild card spot. He led the league’s fourth-ranked scoring offense during that stretch, completing an impressive 70.3% of his passes (ranked third) with 22 touchdowns to only six interceptions. Add in the league’s rushing champ in workhorse Derrick Henry (303 carries for 1,540 yards) and this is an offense clicking at the right time.
Can the offense keep it up against the league’s number one ranked defense? Since Tannehill took over, Tennessee has flourished in the red zone, finishing the regular season ranked first in the NFL - converting touchdowns on three out of every four (75.6%) trips inside the 20 (usatoday). On the flip side, New England excels in forcing opponents to settle for field goals inside the red zone, stopping teams on 48.3% of trips, fourth-best in the NFL (usa). Sure sustaining drives is key, but the Titans must score six instead of three on opportunities inside the 20-yard line in order to leave Gillette with a win.
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| Can the Titans ride the rushing champ to another upset victory? (titansized.com) |
The Patriots formula has been reversed from that of most seasons, as the defense has carried them much of the way - ranked first in both total defense (276 YPG) and scoring defense (14.1 PPG). Brady has been a shell of years past, completing just 60 percent of passes (27th) with a QB rating of 88.0 (19th). But playoff Brady is a different animal.
If one thing is certain over the years, it’s Belichick taking away the offense’s top threat. Can the defense contain Henry and the Titans third-ranked rushing attack (139 YPG)? One matchup to watch: running the ball outside. The Titans ranked third in the NFL in yards per carry on runs toward both the left end (6.7 yards per play) and the right end (7.1) (usatoday). Meanwhile, the Patriots ranked 27th in stopping rushes to the right end (6.3). If the Titans can exploit that, look out. But if history is any indication, Belichick will have his defense ready and able to stop the run.
With speculation this could be Brady’s final season in New England (I’ll believe it when I see it), there’s no way he could lose what would be his final home game. The Patriots always seem to find a way. They advance to their 10th consecutive Divisional round.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Titans 17
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