2020 NFC Championship Preview: Historic Franchises Seek Return to SB

Welcome to Championship Sunday. Three of the four remaining teams - Green Bay, San Francisco and Tennessee - are in the Championship game a season after missing the playoffs.

A changing of the guard? For the first time since 2002, the AFC Title game will not feature Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger.

Both games are rematches from the regular season. That’s good news for Titans and 49ers fans. In the last five seasons, seven conference title games have been rematches, and the team that won the regular season matchup has gone 6-1 in the playoff rematches (FoxSports).

Each game features a QB making his first appearance in a Conference Championship - Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill and San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo. Can they knock off two of the best?

Four teams, two tickets. One dream of playing in the Super Bowl.

Game Preview

No. 2 Green Bay Packers (14-3) at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

All-time NFC Championship: Packers (5-4), 49ers (6-9)

Strange but true: Per NFL Research, Aaron Rodgers' last 5 playoff losses all came to teams he also lost to that regular season: at ATL (2016 NFC Championship), at ARI (2015 NFC Divisional), at SEA (2014 NFC Championship), vs SF (2013 NFC Wild Card), and at SF (2012 NFC Divisional). The 49ers beat the Packers in Week 12.

The matchup: Two storied franchises with a combined SB record of 9-2 (SF 5-1, GB 4-1), this will be the eighth postseason meeting between the two - the second in a Conference Championship. The Packers hold a 4-3 advantage, but the Niners have won the last two, including the most recent in the Wild Card round in 2013. This is a rematch from the regular season in which the Niners obliterated the Pack on National television, 37-8, in Week 12. Fast forward nearly two months later and Green Bay hasn’t lost since (6-0), bringing a determined  Aaron Rodgers and first-year HC Matt LaFleur back to the scene of the crime.

The Underdog

Mr. Rodgers gave us a glimpse into his greatness a week ago, when he dropped a 32-yard dime to DeVante Adams on a key 3rd-and-8 with a little over two minutes to go. With a beautiful flick of the wrist, the play secured a Packers win and reminded us all that #12 can still be as dangerous as years past. Can he ride that momentum against the best defense in the league? That’s where this team starts and ultimately ends.

Packers strength: Aaron Rodgers. One of the most talented to ever play the position, Rodgers’ effortless ability to throw into tight windows and lead his team with the game on the line is second to none. In 17 career postseason games, Rodgers has 38 touchdown passes - good for fifth-most in NFL history. He is one of four quarterbacks to appear in at least 10 postseason games and maintain a passer rating of 100 or higher, joining Bart Starr (104.8 rating in 10 games), Kurt Warner (102.8 rating in 13 games), and Matt Ryan (100.8 rating in 10 games, NFLOps). In Week 12, the 49ers held the former MVP to a mere 104 yards. Lacking depth of playmakers outside of DeVante Adams (8 catches, 160 yards, 2 TD vs. SEA) and Aaron Jones (21 TDs this season, second-most in franchise history), Rodgers will need to be elite in order to down the league’s best defense - one that allowed only 7 first downs against the Vikings. If the past is any indication, he is more than capable.

Area of concern: Run Defense/Covering TE. The Packers D will have its work cut out for them. This is a defense that ranked 23rd against the run in the regular season (120.1 ypg). They'll be going up against a 49ers offense that ranked 2nd in rushing (144 ypg) and one coming off 186 yards on a whopping 47 carries in the Divisional round. In addition, another challenge comes in covering George Kittle. Against elite TEs this season, GB has had a tough time keeping them in check: T. Kelce (4 for 63, TD), D. Waller (7 for 126, 2 TD), Z. Ertz (7 for 65). Meanwhile, Kittle corralled six catches for 129 yards and a score in the first matchup. Can the Packers front-seven do enough to slow down both the run and Garoppolo’s favorite target? That will be key in determining the outcome.

The Packers will win if: they stop the run.

Easier said than done. But it’s no secret. The 49ers go as their running game goes. It benefits the defense and play-action pass. If the Packers can contain it just enough, their chances to pull off the upset increase substantially. Green Bay is 12-0 this season when their opponent attempts more than 30 passes, including last week (Seattle attempted 31). When they force their opponent to abandon the run, it allows the Smith’s (Za’Darius and Preston, combined 4 sacks last week) to do damage. Garoppolo was asked to do very little a week ago with just 19 pass attempts. In what will be his second postseason start, making him air it out is the recipe for the Pack to advance.

Does Rodgers have enough magic in him to send the Pack to the SB (Madison.com)?

The Favorite

Fresh off a blowout win over Minnesota in the Divisional round, San Francisco is looking like the team to beat. Leaning on the same recipe that got them to this point, the Niners dominated with a strong running game coupled with a lights-out defensive effort. Can they keep it rolling against one of the hottest teams in the league?

49ers Strength: Defense. Robert Saleh’s group has been consistent all season long. They rank in the top 10 in just about every statistical category: 1st in pass defense (169.2 ypg), 2nd in total defense (281.8 ypg), 6th in sacks (48) and takeaways (27), and 8th in points allowed (19.4 ppg). In the divisional round, they were absolutely dominant, recording six sacks & two takeaways, while giving up a total of 147 yards, 10 points, and seven first downs. They held Dalvin Cook and the Vikings running game to 21 yards on 10 carries. In Week 12, the Niners held the Packers offense in check, allowing 198 yards on 70 plays (average of 2.8 yards per play). Led by a defensive line consisting of four first-round picks - Dee Ford, Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Defensive Rookie of the Year Favorite Nick Bosa - the 49ers defense is as good as it gets.

Area of concern: Red zone offense. The 49ers ranked 21st in red zone percentage this season, scoring TDs on 53 percent of trips. Why does that matter? In a game of this magnitude - one that is sure to be a one-possession game - scoring a TD (6) instead of a FG (3) inside the 20-yard line could be all the difference in determining the outcome. Not to mention, the Packers ranked 2nd in said category. 

The 49ers will win if: they carry the ball at least 30 times.

The game is won or lost in the trenches. As much as the Packers will need to stop the run, the 49ers will need to lean on the run to secure yet another victory. San Francisco is 9-0 this season, including playoffs, when carrying the ball at least 30 times in a game (a pedestrian 5-3 when they don’t). Headed by a three-pronged attack of Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida - all rushed for over 540 yards this season - the 49ers have the depth to grind it out.

Nick Bosa leads a ferocious front-seven into the NFC title game (latimes). 

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers has the Pack riding high after a win over Seattle in the Divisional round. But facing number one pass defenses has not been kind to #12. Against #1 pass defenses (including playoffs): Rodgers is 1-4 (0-4 on the road), with 4 pass TD, 4 INT, and a passer rating of 72.2. The 49ers are as complete a team as they come. They advance in a close one.

San Francisco 24, Green Bay 22