Sunday, January 12, 2020

2020 Divisional Round Preview (Part II): Young, Veteran QBs seek Return to Conference Championships

After a night that saw the Titans stun the Ravens, can either of the underdogs do the same today?

Game Previews  

No. 4 Houston Texans (11-6) at No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

All-time Divisional Round: Texans (0-3), Chiefs (3-8)

Strange but true: The Texans have never advanced past the Divisional Round. They’ve also never hosted the Divisional Round game.

The matchup: A rematch from earlier this season that features two of the most electric up-and-coming franchise quarterbacks (both 24 years old) that were selected two picks apart in the 2017 draft. In week 6, the two combined for 593 yards and six touchdowns, with Watson’s Texans outlasting Mahomes’ Chiefs. The winner will now host the AFC Championship via the Titans upset of the Ravens.

Deshaun Watson showed his grit yet again, leading the Texans to a comeback win in OT against the Bills (down 16-0 in the third) last weekend, including one of the plays of the year on the deciding drive. He finished an efficient 20-of-25 passing for 247 yards and a touchdown, adding 55 yards and another score on the ground - becoming the third player in NFL history to record a passing TD, a rushing TD, no turnovers, and a fourth-quarter comeback in a playoff game (TexansPR). He’s a special talent and he lives for the big stage. Now comes an even tougher challenge: beating Mahomes on the road for the second time this season. An x-factor could be RB Duke Johnson. Kansas City’s defense enters giving up 951 receiving yards, most in the NFL, and 100 receptions to RBs this season (NFL.com).

Outlook: This will be a difficult matchup for the Texans defense, one that entered Week 17 ranked No. 22 in Football Outsiders' DVOA, worst among any team that had qualified for the playoffs (ESPN). Especially considering the opposing offense and QB are far superior to that of the Bills. But an offense spearheaded by Watson and DeAndre Hopkins always gives this team a chance. Even more so, if he can beat the defense with his legs. The Texans will have to stop the running game to have a shot - the Chiefs are 7-0 when rushing for over 100 yards in a game, and 5-4 when they don’t.

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Mahomes leads the Chiefs high-octane offense into the postseason (si.com).
No one seems to be talking about Kansas City, who might just be the most dangerous team in the AFC. A year after being an off-sides penalty away from making it to the Super Bowl, the Chiefs return with a group peaking at the right time. Winners of six straight, they head into this matchup with confidence, ranking fifth in scoring (28.2 ppg) and sixth in total offense (379.2 ypg). In the week 6 loss to the Texans, KC surrendered a season-high 472 yards and 35 first downs on a whopping 83 offensive plays. But that is long in the rear-view as the Chiefs have turned the corner since, allowing an average of 11.5 points per game over their last six - best in the league over that span. Watson and co. certainly present challenges, but the Chiefs should be much more aligned to stop them this time around.

Outlook: Despite missing two games, Patrick Mahomes tied for eighth in the league with 26 TD passes (to only five interceptions) and ranked second in QBR (76.5). He’s so hard to stop when he is in a groove. He’s even harder to stop when the Chiefs run the ball. Mahomes and co. are 9-1 this season when they run the ball at least 25 times in a game. A pedestrian 3-3 when they don’t. Also, look for third downs to be a factor. The Texans ranked 31st in the NFL on stopping third-downs in 2019, while the Chiefs had the best third-down conversion rate in the NFL all season (NFL.com). Facing a team that surrendered 425 yards a week ago (253 passing, 172 rushing) to a mediocre Bills offense, the Chiefs should have no problem moving the ball in this one.

Watson vs. Mahomes, part II. It Looks like this is destined to become a rivalry for years to come. Sunday, KC and Mahomes get redemption.

Prediction: Kansas City 30, Houston 23


No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (12-5) at No. 2 Green Bay Packers (13-3)

All-time Divisional Round: Seahawks (4-8), Packers (9-10)

Strange but true: Russell Wilson has never won a game at Lambeau Field (0-3).

The matchup: Aaron Rodgers vs. Russell Wilson. Two veterans trying to add another Lombardi to their resume, they meet as the only two quarterbacks in the field to have won a Super Bowl - and the only two to have reached one (NFL.com).

It doesn’t get any easier for the Seahawks heading into Green Bay. With an ever-evolving roster (due to injuries), the Hawks relied on a strong defensive effort coupled with the play of MVP-candidate Wilson (370 total yards, TD) and rookie WR D.K Metcalf (7 catches, 160 yards, TD) to advance. Against the Packers, they will need a similar recipe to down Rodgers and company, a team with only one blemish at home (7-1). Leaning on the ground game should be at the forefront. Going up against the league’s 23rd-ranked rush defense (120.1 ypg) should help. The defense has struggled at times, but ranked third in takeaways with 32. Forcing a turnover could be the difference in a game of this magnitude.

Outlook: How well can the Seahawks protect #3? Per Next Gen Stats, the Packers' pressure rate was 33.0 percent -- the best in the NFL. Last week, Wilson completed 5-of-11 for 137 yards under duress, but that window of opportunity may shrink against the Packs’ stout front. Running the football successfully will open up the passing game enough for Wilson to be at his best. In fact, the Packers three losses this season came when their opponent attempted fewer than 30 passes in a game. When the Seahawks attempted fewer than 30 passes? They were 6-0.

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A breakout season for Jones has the Packers looking good heading into the playoffs (packers.com).
Much like Kansas City in the AFC, noone is taking Green Bay seriously as a contender in the NFC. But with Rodgers leading an offense with a host of underrated playmakers, backed by a defense with great potential, the opportunity is there for the taking. Rodgers has had an above-average season, but has flashed at times (429 yards, 6 TD against OAK). Backfield mate, RB Aaron Jones, has been a touchdown vulture (16 - tied for first) able to take a game over with his dual-threat ability (1,558 yards - 1,084 rushing, 474 receiving). A healthy DeVante Adams is a legit go-to number 1 (83 catches, 997 yards, 5 TD). On defense, the pass rush has been superb. The Smithsonians (Za’Darius Smith & Preston Smith) have wreaked havoc on opposing QBs - combining for 25.5 sacks, third among any teammate duo (NFL.com). Za'Darius' 14.8 pressure rate was first and Preston's 11.7 was 10th (NFL). Against a hobbled offensive line, the Pack should have a major advantage up front.       

Outlook: As is the case with most teams this time of the year, the team that runs the ball with more success usually wins. Green Bay is 5-0 this season when Jones rushes for over 100 yards. Can they get a lead and force the Seahawks into a one-dimensional offense? The Packers are 11-0 this season when they force their opponent to attempt more than 30 passes.

The Seahawks are facing an uphill battle with injuries and depth concerns. There’s only so much Wilson can cover up of that. In a game featuring two of the best veteran signal callers in the game, Rodgers’ Packers seem to be in a better spot. Green Bay wins a close one (8-1 in games decided by one score).

Prediction: Green Bay 21, Seattle 17  

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