A changing of the guard? For the first time since 2002, the AFC Title game will not feature Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger.
Both games are rematches from the regular season. That’s good news for Titans and 49ers fans. In the last five seasons, seven conference title games have been rematches, and the team that won the regular season matchup has gone 6-1 in the playoff rematches (FoxSports).
Each game features a quarterback making his first appearance in a Conference Championship - Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill and San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo. Can they knock off two of the best?
Four teams, two tickets. One dream of playing in the Super Bowl.
Game Preview
No. 6 Tennessee Titans (11-7) at No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
All-time AFC Championship: Titans (1-4), Chiefs (2-2)
Strange but true: The Titans became the third team to win multiple games with fewer than 100 yards passing (in both games) in the same postseason. The other two to do it - Miami (1972 & 1973) and Pittsburgh (1974) - won the Super Bowl (NFL).
The matchup: Two years removed from the Titans upset of the Chiefs in the Wild Card Round (2017), these two meet again with much more at stake - a trip to the Super Bowl. It’s a rematch from Week 10, when Tennessee overcame a nine-point fourth quarter deficit to stun the visitors, 35-32, on a TD pass from Ryan Tannehill to Adam Humphries with 23 seconds remaining. In a game that featured five lead changes, the teams combined for 901 yards and 47 first downs. Fast forward two months later, and the Titans bring an unstoppable force in rushing champ Derrick Henry, while the Chiefs counter with a passing attack led by one of the best in the game, Patrick Mahomes.
The Underdog
Road warriors led by an unprecedented running back, the Titans continue to ride Derrick Henry to the unlikeliest of postseason runs. The fourth-year workhorse has carried his teammates to this point, racking up 377 yards on 64 attempts - becoming the first player in NFL history with two games of at least 175 yards rushing in the same postseason (NFLResearch). Coach Mike Vrabel has turned back the clock to the old days of smash-mouth football - with a ‘run-until-they-stop-us’ mentality. Henry is the perfect suitor for such a philosophy, especially this time of year. And everyone still wants to sleep on QB Ryan Tannehill. Since Patrick Mahomes returned in Week 10, here are the two QBs numbers in comparison (including playoffs):
Tannehill: 134-of-200 (67%), 1,916 yards, 20 TD, 3 INT
Mahomes: 185-of-278 (66%), 2,108 yards, 16 TD, 4 INT
Tannehill is a major reason why the Titans are in the playoffs to begin with. Can he slay a third top QB in as many weeks to punch Tennessee’s ticket to the Super Bowl?
Titans strength: It’s no secret. It’s #22 and the ground game. The Titans rushing attack has been second to none this postseason. Henry is averaging 188.5 rushing yards per game, the most by a player in a single postseason in the Super Bowl era (min. 2 games, NFLResearch). Despite facing the most stacked boxes (8+ defenders) of any RB in the league, the 6-foot-3, 247-pound bulldozer ranks first in rushes (135), yards (729), and TDs (13) against such alignments. Behind an unheralded offensive line, the Titans continue to feed the beast, having dialed up 77 runs to only 31 passes - a rush play percentage of 71.3 percent - while averaging 209 yards on the ground (in the playoffs). In the first meeting, Kansas City struggled to find an answer in defending Henry and company, allowing 225 yards in the run game. Expect the Titans to lean on what has gotten them to this point.
Area of concern: Defense. This group has held their own each of the past two weeks, giving up a combined 25 points to the Patriots and Ravens. But neither of those teams possess the amount of offensive firepower or speed than the team they’ll see on Sunday - one they surrendered 530 yards of offense to, in Week 10. Even more so, the defense has logged 151 plays (not including penalties) the last two weeks, including 92 a week ago. This will be the Titans fourth straight road game. Answering the bell against the Chiefs will be their greatest challenge yet.
The Titans will win if: they run the ball at least 30 times.
Henry, Henry, Henry. Sounds simple, but the key is sticking to the run even if they fall behind. In their last three games (including playoffs), Tennessee has piled up the following stats via the ground, respectively: 39 carries for 245 yards, 40 for 201, and 37 for 217. Astounding. In fact, the Titans are 6-0 in their last eight games when recording at least 30 carries. The two times they failed to reach that number, they lost.
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| An absolute force, Henry will look to continue his playoff dominance against the Chiefs (MusicCityMiracles.com). |
Kansas City counters with arguably the most talented QB in the league, Patrick Mahomes. The third-year pro continues to defy logic after leading his team back from a 24-0 deficit last week against the Texans (became the first team in NFL history to win a playoff game by 20+ points after trailing in that game by 20+ points, NFLR). His passer rating of 113.2 in three career playoff games is the highest of any player with at least 100 pass attempts since 1950 (NFL). Winners of seven straight (coincidentally, their last loss was to the Titans), the Chiefs have been red-hot, averaging 31.1 ppg. - having outscored their opponents, 218-100, over that span. Now they welcome a defense that just gave up 530 yards on 92 plays to the Ravens (albeit a portion of that was in garbage time). With Mahomes and his full complement of weapons healthy, this might be the most dangerous team (if not, offense) in the field.
Chiefs strength: Play-makers/Offense. Fresh off a 51-point outburst, this is a team booming with confidence. It obviously starts with Mahomes, who became the first player in NFL history with 300+ pass yards, 5+ pass TD & 50+ rush yards in a playoff game (NFLResearch). Loaded with weapons, the third-year QB can turn to tight-end Travis Kelce (10 catches, 134 yards, 3 TD) - became the third player in the Super Bowl era with three receiving TDs in a playoff game (NFLR), burner Tyreek Hill - corralled a career-high 11 passes for 157 yards in Week 10, or dual-threat (and underrated) RB Damien Williams - scored three TDs against Texans to become the fourth player since 1950 with multiple postseason games with at least three touchdowns (NFLOps). That’s not to mention speedsters Sammy Watkins (3 touches for 90) and Mecole Hardman who have both shined at times this season. With so many players that can create mismatches, expect Andy Reid to expose the Titans D come Sunday.
Area of concern: Run defense. Kansas City ranked 26th in stopping the run (128 ypg) and gave up 188 and two TDs to Henry the first time around. The Chiefs have drastically improved since, allowing an average of 94.9 in their last seven games. That’s why getting a lead early will be paramount in aiding to stop, or at least contain, King Henry.
The Chiefs will win if: they rush for 100 yards.
Ok, ok. With Mahomes at the helm, does this team really need to run for 100 yards to win? Probably not, but the analytics would suggest that their odds increase exponentially if they do. The Chiefs are 8-0 this season when rushing for at least 100 yards, including last week when they tallied 118 on just 21 carries. It's funny how it always seems to come down to winning the battle in the trenches. Giving Mahomes an added element of a running game makes KC all the more dangerous.
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| Travis Kelce scored three TDs last week against the Texans. He will be a main focus of the Titans D (Chiefswire). |
Kansas City 34, Tennessee 28
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