2020 Divisional Round Preview (Part I): Historical Ground Games Clash

And then there were eight. The heavyweights now get their chance to show they belong and move one step closer to hoisting the Lombardi. If last week were any indication - every game was determined by one possession, including two in OT - this week should be a wild ride.

History favors the top seeds. Eleven out of the last 12 number one seeds have made it to Conference Championship weekend, with nine out of the last 12 making it to the Super Bowl.

After a rough wildcard weekend (0-4), I give it another shot. Here’s a look into the match-ups, including how I think they’ll shake out.

Fun fact: This is just the sixth time since 1990 (the current playoff format) that both No. 6 seeds advanced to the Divisional Round (CBSSports).

Game Previews 

If you like watching teams run the football, Saturday’s lineup is for you. Four of the top six rushing units (including top three) will be on display: 1) Ravens, 2) 49ers, 3) Titans, and 6) Vikings. All four teams ranked in the top four in rush play percentage.

No. 6 Minnesota Vikings (11-6) at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

All-time Divisional Round: Vikings (10-12), 49ers (16-8)

Strange but true: The Vikings lost a fumble on their opening drive last weekend against the Saints. The last three teams to lose a fumble on the opening drive of a playoff game went on to win the Super Bowl - 2017 Eagles, 2013 Seahawks, and the 2012 Ravens (NFLResearch).

The matchup: Two teams with an old school mentality of running the football and playing great defense. A matchup that pits two of the top three teams that are run-heavy, Minnesota and San Francisco ranked second (49.4%) and third (49.2%) respectively in rush play percentage. Not surprisingly, both ranked in the top eight in scoring defense (Vikings 5th, 49ers 8th) and tied for fifth in sacks (48). 

The Vikings utilized that philosophy to dispatch the Saints in overtime, rushing for 136 yards on 40 attempts (56.3% of plays) against the league’s fourth-ranked rush defense. Having a healthy Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen did wonders for the offense, especially QB Kirk Cousins (19-of-31, 242 yards, TD, no turnovers). Cook returned to form, totaling 130 yards and two scores on 31 touches (28 carries), while Thielen added 129 yards on seven receptions. Meanwhile, the defense held the red-hot Saints (who came into the game averaging 36.3 points in their last seven) to 20 points and 324 yards at home, including three sacks and two key takeaways. Next up? The Niners fourth-ranked offense (381.1 yards per game) averaging 30 points per game. Shortening the game by sustaining drives will be critical to the Vikings success.

Outlook: The Vikings go as their running game goes, as it benefits both the defense and passing game. Certainly a recipe for success, Zimmer’s Vikings are now 10-0 when carrying the ball at least 30 times in a game this season (1-6 when they do not). Establishing that will be the key on the road in yet another hostile environment.

TE George Kittle could be the x-factor on Saturday (ninersnation).

On the other side, QB Jimmy Garoppolo finally gets his shot in what will be his first postseason start. The 49ers enter the postseason for the first time since 2013, claiming the number one seed for the first time since 1997. They bring with it one of the best overall units, ranking in the top four in both offense (4th) and defense (2nd). Boasting the league’s best pass defense (169.2 ypg), the Niners game plan will be based on slowing RB Cook and the Vikings sixth-ranked rushing attack. Easier said than done. Especially considering that Shanahan’s group has been susceptible to the run at times, allowing 112.6 yards (17th) on the ground per game. Forcing the game into the hands of Kirk Cousins (7-30 in career vs. winning teams) should be the main focus.

Outlook: Shanahan’s creativity in play-calling has given defenses fits all season. It starts and ends with the running game, where the Niners three-pronged attack combined to rush for 1,939 yards on 397 carries (Raheem Mostert 137 for 772 yards, Tevin Coleman 137 for 544, and Matt Breida 123 for 623). Each one brings a different yet valuable asset that makes them tough to defend. If that’s not enough, Garoppolo is a franchise QB more than capable of shouldering the load. The sixth-year QB orchestrated four game-winning drives this season and tied for fifth in touchdown passes (27). He welcomes a healthy group of playmakers, including favorite target TE George Kittle and WR Emmanuel Sanders - both difficult match-ups for defenses.

In a game featuring two teams with similar philosophies, don't be surprised if it comes down to the final possession. Unlike last week, the 49ers have a much better ground game that the Vikings have to worry about. That opens up the Niners passing game for Garoppolo and co. to do just enough to advance.

Prediction: San Francisco 23, Minnesota 20


No. 6 Tennessee Titans (10-7) at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens (14-2)

All-time Divisional Round: Titans (4-9), Ravens (4-5)

Strange but true: The Titans 71 pass yards were the fewest by any team in a playoff win since the 2009 Ravens (34) - also against the Patriots in the Wild Card Round (NFLResearch).

The matchup: This might end up being the quickest game in playoff history. With both teams predicated on running the football, each will try to impose their will by wearing down the defense. The Titans bring the rushing champ, while the Ravens counter with the league’s top ground attack featuring a transcendent talent. It will mark the fourth time in NFL history that the leading rusher faces the number one ranked rush offense in the playoffs. The leading rusher is 3-0 (NFL).

It’s no secret for Tennessee, especially this time of the year. The offense runs through Derrick Henry. That was showcased last week against New England, when the Titans attempted a mere 16 passes (to 40 rushes) and Henry rumbled his way to 182 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 34 carries. It was the most rushing yards ever allowed by the Patriots in a playoff game under Belichick. The 6-foot-3, 238-pounder has been nearly unstoppable as the season has worn on, totaling 1,078 yards in his last seven games (including Saturday), with at least 150 in five of those. On the road against a team that hasn’t lost since September, Tennessee will need another heavy dose of Henry to have a chance.

Outlook: Baltimore ranked fifth in the league in stopping the run in the regular season (93.4 ypg). But a lot of that had to do with having big leads, controlling the clock, and forcing their opponent into throwing the ball. A look closer and the Ravens allowed 4.4 yards per carry (21st in the league). The Titans have to keep this game close. Their best chance comes in the form of their red-hot running game, which will also keep #8 and co. off the field.

Jackson has taken the league by storm in just his second season (YahooSports). 

Baltimore enters this game winners of 12 straight, with eight of those coming in the form of one-sided, double-digit victories. Boasting the league’s number one offense and fourth-ranked defense, the Ravens have looked the part all season. It’s hard to target a weakness when this team has the ball. MVP favorite Lamar Jackson leads an offense that has been virtually unstoppable - the first team in NFL history to average 200 passing yards and 200 rushing yards per game (NFL.com). The dual-threat signal caller is the equivalent of a video-game-like highlight reel that possesses rare athletic ability at the QB position. In just his second season (first as a full starter), Jackson broke the single season record for rushing yards by a QB (1,206) and led the league with 36 passing TDs (43 total). Stopping him, let alone containing him, might be the toughest ask of any opposing defense to date.

Outlook: Keep on keeping on. The Ravens rushed for an NFL-record 3,296 yards as a team, surpassing the New England Patriots mark of 3,165 set in 1978 (top three were teams from 1970s)! It has led them to this point. While the Titans ranked 12th in stopping the run (104.5 ypg) they haven’t seen anything like what they’ll see Saturday night. Meanwhile, on defense they must sell out to stop the run and make the Titans one-dimensional.

Mike Vrabel will have his team ready to shock the world. And with a long layoff for the Ravens, it might be a perfect opportunity to jump on them early to put the pressure on a young QB. But to beat the Patriots and Ravens in back to back weeks on the road? That’d be near-statue worthy. Titans keep it close, but Jackson and co. pull away late.

Prediction: Baltimore 26, Tennessee 21