2020 NFC Championship Preview: Historic Franchises Seek Return to SB

Welcome to Championship Sunday. Three of the four remaining teams - Green Bay, San Francisco and Tennessee - are in the Championship game a season after missing the playoffs.

A changing of the guard? For the first time since 2002, the AFC Title game will not feature Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger.

Both games are rematches from the regular season. That’s good news for Titans and 49ers fans. In the last five seasons, seven conference title games have been rematches, and the team that won the regular season matchup has gone 6-1 in the playoff rematches (FoxSports).

Each game features a QB making his first appearance in a Conference Championship - Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill and San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo. Can they knock off two of the best?

Four teams, two tickets. One dream of playing in the Super Bowl.

Game Preview

No. 2 Green Bay Packers (14-3) at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

All-time NFC Championship: Packers (5-4), 49ers (6-9)

Strange but true: Per NFL Research, Aaron Rodgers' last 5 playoff losses all came to teams he also lost to that regular season: at ATL (2016 NFC Championship), at ARI (2015 NFC Divisional), at SEA (2014 NFC Championship), vs SF (2013 NFC Wild Card), and at SF (2012 NFC Divisional). The 49ers beat the Packers in Week 12.

The matchup: Two storied franchises with a combined SB record of 9-2 (SF 5-1, GB 4-1), this will be the eighth postseason meeting between the two - the second in a Conference Championship. The Packers hold a 4-3 advantage, but the Niners have won the last two, including the most recent in the Wild Card round in 2013. This is a rematch from the regular season in which the Niners obliterated the Pack on National television, 37-8, in Week 12. Fast forward nearly two months later and Green Bay hasn’t lost since (6-0), bringing a determined  Aaron Rodgers and first-year HC Matt LaFleur back to the scene of the crime.

The Underdog

Mr. Rodgers gave us a glimpse into his greatness a week ago, when he dropped a 32-yard dime to DeVante Adams on a key 3rd-and-8 with a little over two minutes to go. With a beautiful flick of the wrist, the play secured a Packers win and reminded us all that #12 can still be as dangerous as years past. Can he ride that momentum against the best defense in the league? That’s where this team starts and ultimately ends.

Packers strength: Aaron Rodgers. One of the most talented to ever play the position, Rodgers’ effortless ability to throw into tight windows and lead his team with the game on the line is second to none. In 17 career postseason games, Rodgers has 38 touchdown passes - good for fifth-most in NFL history. He is one of four quarterbacks to appear in at least 10 postseason games and maintain a passer rating of 100 or higher, joining Bart Starr (104.8 rating in 10 games), Kurt Warner (102.8 rating in 13 games), and Matt Ryan (100.8 rating in 10 games, NFLOps). In Week 12, the 49ers held the former MVP to a mere 104 yards. Lacking depth of playmakers outside of DeVante Adams (8 catches, 160 yards, 2 TD vs. SEA) and Aaron Jones (21 TDs this season, second-most in franchise history), Rodgers will need to be elite in order to down the league’s best defense - one that allowed only 7 first downs against the Vikings. If the past is any indication, he is more than capable.

Area of concern: Run Defense/Covering TE. The Packers D will have its work cut out for them. This is a defense that ranked 23rd against the run in the regular season (120.1 ypg). They'll be going up against a 49ers offense that ranked 2nd in rushing (144 ypg) and one coming off 186 yards on a whopping 47 carries in the Divisional round. In addition, another challenge comes in covering George Kittle. Against elite TEs this season, GB has had a tough time keeping them in check: T. Kelce (4 for 63, TD), D. Waller (7 for 126, 2 TD), Z. Ertz (7 for 65). Meanwhile, Kittle corralled six catches for 129 yards and a score in the first matchup. Can the Packers front-seven do enough to slow down both the run and Garoppolo’s favorite target? That will be key in determining the outcome.

The Packers will win if: they stop the run.

Easier said than done. But it’s no secret. The 49ers go as their running game goes. It benefits the defense and play-action pass. If the Packers can contain it just enough, their chances to pull off the upset increase substantially. Green Bay is 12-0 this season when their opponent attempts more than 30 passes, including last week (Seattle attempted 31). When they force their opponent to abandon the run, it allows the Smith’s (Za’Darius and Preston, combined 4 sacks last week) to do damage. Garoppolo was asked to do very little a week ago with just 19 pass attempts. In what will be his second postseason start, making him air it out is the recipe for the Pack to advance.

Does Rodgers have enough magic in him to send the Pack to the SB (Madison.com)?

The Favorite

Fresh off a blowout win over Minnesota in the Divisional round, San Francisco is looking like the team to beat. Leaning on the same recipe that got them to this point, the Niners dominated with a strong running game coupled with a lights-out defensive effort. Can they keep it rolling against one of the hottest teams in the league?

49ers Strength: Defense. Robert Saleh’s group has been consistent all season long. They rank in the top 10 in just about every statistical category: 1st in pass defense (169.2 ypg), 2nd in total defense (281.8 ypg), 6th in sacks (48) and takeaways (27), and 8th in points allowed (19.4 ppg). In the divisional round, they were absolutely dominant, recording six sacks & two takeaways, while giving up a total of 147 yards, 10 points, and seven first downs. They held Dalvin Cook and the Vikings running game to 21 yards on 10 carries. In Week 12, the Niners held the Packers offense in check, allowing 198 yards on 70 plays (average of 2.8 yards per play). Led by a defensive line consisting of four first-round picks - Dee Ford, Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Defensive Rookie of the Year Favorite Nick Bosa - the 49ers defense is as good as it gets.

Area of concern: Red zone offense. The 49ers ranked 21st in red zone percentage this season, scoring TDs on 53 percent of trips. Why does that matter? In a game of this magnitude - one that is sure to be a one-possession game - scoring a TD (6) instead of a FG (3) inside the 20-yard line could be all the difference in determining the outcome. Not to mention, the Packers ranked 2nd in said category. 

The 49ers will win if: they carry the ball at least 30 times.

The game is won or lost in the trenches. As much as the Packers will need to stop the run, the 49ers will need to lean on the run to secure yet another victory. San Francisco is 9-0 this season, including playoffs, when carrying the ball at least 30 times in a game (a pedestrian 5-3 when they don’t). Headed by a three-pronged attack of Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida - all rushed for over 540 yards this season - the 49ers have the depth to grind it out.

Nick Bosa leads a ferocious front-seven into the NFC title game (latimes). 

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers has the Pack riding high after a win over Seattle in the Divisional round. But facing number one pass defenses has not been kind to #12. Against #1 pass defenses (including playoffs): Rodgers is 1-4 (0-4 on the road), with 4 pass TD, 4 INT, and a passer rating of 72.2. The 49ers are as complete a team as they come. They advance in a close one.

San Francisco 24, Green Bay 22

2020 AFC Championship Preview: Can the Titans Slay Another Giant?

Welcome to Championship Sunday. Three of the four remaining teams - Green Bay, San Francisco and Tennessee - are in the Championship game a season after missing the playoffs.

A changing of the guard? For the first time since 2002, the AFC Title game will not feature Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger.

Both games are rematches from the regular season. That’s good news for Titans and 49ers fans. In the last five seasons, seven conference title games have been rematches, and the team that won the regular season matchup has gone 6-1 in the playoff rematches (FoxSports).

Each game features a quarterback making his first appearance in a Conference Championship - Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill and San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo. Can they knock off two of the best?

Four teams, two tickets. One dream of playing in the Super Bowl.

Game Preview

No. 6 Tennessee Titans (11-7) at No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

All-time AFC Championship: Titans (1-4), Chiefs (2-2)

Strange but true: The Titans became the third team to win multiple games with fewer than 100 yards passing (in both games) in the same postseason. The other two to do it - Miami (1972 & 1973) and Pittsburgh (1974) - won the Super Bowl (NFL). 

The matchup: Two years removed from the Titans upset of the Chiefs in the Wild Card Round (2017), these two meet again with much more at stake - a trip to the Super Bowl. It’s a rematch from Week 10, when Tennessee overcame a nine-point fourth quarter deficit to stun the visitors, 35-32, on a TD pass from Ryan Tannehill to Adam Humphries with 23 seconds remaining. In a game that featured five lead changes, the teams combined for 901 yards and 47 first downs. Fast forward two months later, and the Titans bring an unstoppable force in rushing champ Derrick Henry, while the Chiefs counter with a passing attack led by one of the best in the game, Patrick Mahomes.

The Underdog

Road warriors led by an unprecedented running back, the Titans continue to ride Derrick Henry to the unlikeliest of postseason runs. The fourth-year workhorse has carried his teammates to this point, racking up 377 yards on 64 attempts - becoming the first player in NFL history with two games of at least 175 yards rushing in the same postseason (NFLResearch). Coach Mike Vrabel has turned back the clock to the old days of smash-mouth football - with a ‘run-until-they-stop-us’ mentality. Henry is the perfect suitor for such a philosophy, especially this time of year. And everyone still wants to sleep on QB Ryan Tannehill. Since Patrick Mahomes returned in Week 10, here are the two QBs numbers in comparison (including playoffs):

Tannehill: 134-of-200 (67%), 1,916 yards, 20 TD, 3 INT
Mahomes: 185-of-278 (66%), 2,108 yards, 16 TD, 4 INT

Tannehill is a major reason why the Titans are in the playoffs to begin with. Can he slay a third top QB in as many weeks to punch Tennessee’s ticket to the Super Bowl?

Titans strength: It’s no secret. It’s #22 and the ground game. The Titans rushing attack has been second to none this postseason. Henry is averaging 188.5 rushing yards per game, the most by a player in a single postseason in the Super Bowl era (min. 2 games, NFLResearch). Despite facing the most stacked boxes (8+ defenders) of any RB in the league, the 6-foot-3, 247-pound bulldozer ranks first in rushes (135), yards (729), and TDs (13) against such alignments. Behind an unheralded offensive line, the Titans continue to feed the beast, having dialed up 77 runs to only 31 passes - a rush play percentage of 71.3 percent - while averaging 209 yards on the ground (in the playoffs). In the first meeting, Kansas City struggled to find an answer in defending Henry and company, allowing 225 yards in the run game. Expect the Titans to lean on what has gotten them to this point.

Area of concern: Defense. This group has held their own each of the past two weeks, giving up a combined 25 points to the Patriots and Ravens. But neither of those teams possess the amount of offensive firepower or speed than the team they’ll see on Sunday - one they surrendered 530 yards of offense to, in Week 10. Even more so, the defense has logged 151 plays (not including penalties) the last two weeks, including 92 a week ago. This will be the Titans fourth straight road game. Answering the bell against the Chiefs will be their greatest challenge yet.

The Titans will win if: they run the ball at least 30 times.

Henry, Henry, Henry. Sounds simple, but the key is sticking to the run even if they fall behind. In their last three games (including playoffs), Tennessee has piled up the following stats via the ground, respectively: 39 carries for 245 yards, 40 for 201, and 37 for 217. Astounding. In fact, the Titans are 6-0 in their last eight games when recording at least 30 carries. The two times they failed to reach that number, they lost.

An absolute force, Henry will look to continue his playoff dominance against the Chiefs (MusicCityMiracles.com).

The Favorite

Kansas City counters with arguably the most talented QB in the league, Patrick Mahomes. The third-year pro continues to defy logic after leading his team back from a 24-0 deficit last week against the Texans (became the first team in NFL history to win a playoff game by 20+ points after trailing in that game by 20+ points, NFLR). His passer rating of 113.2 in three career playoff games is the highest of any player with at least 100 pass attempts since 1950 (NFL). Winners of seven straight (coincidentally, their last loss was to the Titans), the Chiefs have been red-hot, averaging 31.1 ppg. - having outscored their opponents, 218-100, over that span. Now they welcome a defense that just gave up 530 yards on 92 plays to the Ravens (albeit a portion of that was in garbage time). With Mahomes and his full complement of weapons healthy, this might be the most dangerous team (if not, offense) in the field.

Chiefs strength: Play-makers/Offense. Fresh off a 51-point outburst, this is a team booming with confidence. It obviously starts with Mahomes, who became the first player in NFL history with 300+ pass yards, 5+ pass TD & 50+ rush yards in a playoff game (NFLResearch). Loaded with weapons, the third-year QB can turn to tight-end Travis Kelce (10 catches, 134 yards, 3 TD) - became the third player in the Super Bowl era with three receiving TDs in a playoff game (NFLR), burner Tyreek Hill - corralled a career-high 11 passes for 157 yards in Week 10, or dual-threat (and underrated) RB Damien Williams - scored three TDs against Texans to become the fourth player since 1950 with multiple postseason games with at least three touchdowns (NFLOps). That’s not to mention speedsters Sammy Watkins (3 touches for 90) and Mecole Hardman who have both shined at times this season. With so many players that can create mismatches, expect Andy Reid to expose the Titans D come Sunday.

Area of concern: Run defense. Kansas City ranked 26th in stopping the run (128 ypg) and gave up 188 and two TDs to Henry the first time around. The Chiefs have drastically improved since, allowing an average of 94.9 in their last seven games. That’s why getting a lead early will be paramount in aiding to stop, or at least contain, King Henry.

The Chiefs will win if: they rush for 100 yards.

Ok, ok. With Mahomes at the helm, does this team really need to run for 100 yards to win? Probably not, but the analytics would suggest that their odds increase exponentially if they do. The Chiefs are 8-0 this season when rushing for at least 100 yards, including last week when they tallied 118 on just 21 carries. It's funny how it always seems to come down to winning the battle in the trenches. Giving Mahomes an added element of a running game makes KC all the more dangerous.

Travis Kelce scored three TDs last week against the Texans. He will be a main focus of the Titans D (Chiefswire).

Prediction: Tennessee can become the third team since 1990 to defeat the top three seeds in its conference in a single postseason, joining the 2005 Steelers and 2010 Packers (NFLOps). They’ve been great, and seem primed to stun yet another top seed. But no one deserves a trip to the Super Bowl more than Andy Reid - who has 220 wins (including playoffs), the most by any head coach to not win a Super Bowl (NFLR). If not for that fact alone, I'd go with the Titans. But Kansas City averages 37.7 PPG in the playoffs with Patrick Mahomes, the most by any team with any starting QB since 1950 (NFLR). It's hard to imagine Tennessee getting to 30 in this one. Behind Mahomes magic, the Chiefs advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in 50 years.

Kansas City 34, Tennessee 28

2020 Divisional Round Preview (Part II): Young, Veteran QBs seek Return to Conference Championships

After a night that saw the Titans stun the Ravens, can either of the underdogs do the same today?

Game Previews  

No. 4 Houston Texans (11-6) at No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)

All-time Divisional Round: Texans (0-3), Chiefs (3-8)

Strange but true: The Texans have never advanced past the Divisional Round. They’ve also never hosted the Divisional Round game.

The matchup: A rematch from earlier this season that features two of the most electric up-and-coming franchise quarterbacks (both 24 years old) that were selected two picks apart in the 2017 draft. In week 6, the two combined for 593 yards and six touchdowns, with Watson’s Texans outlasting Mahomes’ Chiefs. The winner will now host the AFC Championship via the Titans upset of the Ravens.

Deshaun Watson showed his grit yet again, leading the Texans to a comeback win in OT against the Bills (down 16-0 in the third) last weekend, including one of the plays of the year on the deciding drive. He finished an efficient 20-of-25 passing for 247 yards and a touchdown, adding 55 yards and another score on the ground - becoming the third player in NFL history to record a passing TD, a rushing TD, no turnovers, and a fourth-quarter comeback in a playoff game (TexansPR). He’s a special talent and he lives for the big stage. Now comes an even tougher challenge: beating Mahomes on the road for the second time this season. An x-factor could be RB Duke Johnson. Kansas City’s defense enters giving up 951 receiving yards, most in the NFL, and 100 receptions to RBs this season (NFL.com).

Outlook: This will be a difficult matchup for the Texans defense, one that entered Week 17 ranked No. 22 in Football Outsiders' DVOA, worst among any team that had qualified for the playoffs (ESPN). Especially considering the opposing offense and QB are far superior to that of the Bills. But an offense spearheaded by Watson and DeAndre Hopkins always gives this team a chance. Even more so, if he can beat the defense with his legs. The Texans will have to stop the running game to have a shot - the Chiefs are 7-0 when rushing for over 100 yards in a game, and 5-4 when they don’t.

Mahomes leads the Chiefs high-octane offense into the postseason (si.com).

No one seems to be talking about Kansas City, who might just be the most dangerous team in the AFC. A year after being an off-sides penalty away from making it to the Super Bowl, the Chiefs return with a group peaking at the right time. Winners of six straight, they head into this matchup with confidence, ranking fifth in scoring (28.2 ppg) and sixth in total offense (379.2 ypg). In the week 6 loss to the Texans, KC surrendered a season-high 472 yards and 35 first downs on a whopping 83 offensive plays. But that is long in the rear-view as the Chiefs have turned the corner since, allowing an average of 11.5 points per game over their last six - best in the league over that span. Watson and co. certainly present challenges, but the Chiefs should be much more aligned to stop them this time around.

Outlook: Despite missing two games, Patrick Mahomes tied for eighth in the league with 26 TD passes (to only five interceptions) and ranked second in QBR (76.5). He’s so hard to stop when he is in a groove. He’s even harder to stop when the Chiefs run the ball. Mahomes and co. are 9-1 this season when they run the ball at least 25 times in a game. A pedestrian 3-3 when they don’t. Also, look for third downs to be a factor. The Texans ranked 31st in the NFL on stopping third-downs in 2019, while the Chiefs had the best third-down conversion rate in the NFL all season (NFL.com). Facing a team that surrendered 425 yards a week ago (253 passing, 172 rushing) to a mediocre Bills offense, the Chiefs should have no problem moving the ball in this one.

Watson vs. Mahomes, part II. It Looks like this is destined to become a rivalry for years to come. Sunday, KC and Mahomes get redemption.

Prediction: Kansas City 30, Houston 23


No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (12-5) at No. 2 Green Bay Packers (13-3)

All-time Divisional Round: Seahawks (4-8), Packers (9-10)

Strange but true: Russell Wilson has never won a game at Lambeau Field (0-3).

The matchup: Aaron Rodgers vs. Russell Wilson. Two veterans trying to add another Lombardi to their resume, they meet as the only two quarterbacks in the field to have won a Super Bowl - and the only two to have reached one (NFL.com).

It doesn’t get any easier for the Seahawks heading into Green Bay. With an ever-evolving roster (due to injuries), the Hawks relied on a strong defensive effort coupled with the play of MVP-candidate Wilson (370 total yards, TD) and rookie WR D.K Metcalf (7 catches, 160 yards, TD) to advance. Against the Packers, they will need a similar recipe to down Rodgers and company, a team with only one blemish at home (7-1). Leaning on the ground game should be at the forefront. Going up against the league’s 23rd-ranked rush defense (120.1 ypg) should help. The defense has struggled at times, but ranked third in takeaways with 32. Forcing a turnover could be the difference in a game of this magnitude.

Outlook: How well can the Seahawks protect #3? Per Next Gen Stats, the Packers' pressure rate was 33.0 percent -- the best in the NFL. Last week, Wilson completed 5-of-11 for 137 yards under duress, but that window of opportunity may shrink against the Packs’ stout front. Running the football successfully will open up the passing game enough for Wilson to be at his best. In fact, the Packers three losses this season came when their opponent attempted fewer than 30 passes in a game. When the Seahawks attempted fewer than 30 passes? They were 6-0.

A breakout season for Jones has the Packers looking good heading into the playoffs (packers.com).

Much like Kansas City in the AFC, noone is taking Green Bay seriously as a contender in the NFC. But with Rodgers leading an offense with a host of underrated playmakers, backed by a defense with great potential, the opportunity is there for the taking. Rodgers has had an above-average season, but has flashed at times (429 yards, 6 TD against OAK). Backfield mate, RB Aaron Jones, has been a touchdown vulture (16 - tied for first) able to take a game over with his dual-threat ability (1,558 yards - 1,084 rushing, 474 receiving). A healthy DeVante Adams is a legit go-to number 1 (83 catches, 997 yards, 5 TD). On defense, the pass rush has been superb. The Smithsonians (Za’Darius Smith & Preston Smith) have wreaked havoc on opposing QBs - combining for 25.5 sacks, third among any teammate duo (NFL.com). Za'Darius' 14.8 pressure rate was first and Preston's 11.7 was 10th (NFL). Against a hobbled offensive line, the Pack should have a major advantage up front.       

Outlook: As is the case with most teams this time of the year, the team that runs the ball with more success usually wins. Green Bay is 5-0 this season when Jones rushes for over 100 yards. Can they get a lead and force the Seahawks into a one-dimensional offense? The Packers are 11-0 this season when they force their opponent to attempt more than 30 passes.

The Seahawks are facing an uphill battle with injuries and depth concerns. There’s only so much Wilson can cover up of that. In a game featuring two of the best veteran signal callers in the game, Rodgers’ Packers seem to be in a better spot. Green Bay wins a close one (8-1 in games decided by one score).

Prediction: Green Bay 21, Seattle 17  

2020 Divisional Round Preview (Part I): Historical Ground Games Clash

And then there were eight. The heavyweights now get their chance to show they belong and move one step closer to hoisting the Lombardi. If last week were any indication - every game was determined by one possession, including two in OT - this week should be a wild ride.

History favors the top seeds. Eleven out of the last 12 number one seeds have made it to Conference Championship weekend, with nine out of the last 12 making it to the Super Bowl.

After a rough wildcard weekend (0-4), I give it another shot. Here’s a look into the match-ups, including how I think they’ll shake out.

Fun fact: This is just the sixth time since 1990 (the current playoff format) that both No. 6 seeds advanced to the Divisional Round (CBSSports).

Game Previews 

If you like watching teams run the football, Saturday’s lineup is for you. Four of the top six rushing units (including top three) will be on display: 1) Ravens, 2) 49ers, 3) Titans, and 6) Vikings. All four teams ranked in the top four in rush play percentage.

No. 6 Minnesota Vikings (11-6) at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (13-3)

All-time Divisional Round: Vikings (10-12), 49ers (16-8)

Strange but true: The Vikings lost a fumble on their opening drive last weekend against the Saints. The last three teams to lose a fumble on the opening drive of a playoff game went on to win the Super Bowl - 2017 Eagles, 2013 Seahawks, and the 2012 Ravens (NFLResearch).

The matchup: Two teams with an old school mentality of running the football and playing great defense. A matchup that pits two of the top three teams that are run-heavy, Minnesota and San Francisco ranked second (49.4%) and third (49.2%) respectively in rush play percentage. Not surprisingly, both ranked in the top eight in scoring defense (Vikings 5th, 49ers 8th) and tied for fifth in sacks (48). 

The Vikings utilized that philosophy to dispatch the Saints in overtime, rushing for 136 yards on 40 attempts (56.3% of plays) against the league’s fourth-ranked rush defense. Having a healthy Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen did wonders for the offense, especially QB Kirk Cousins (19-of-31, 242 yards, TD, no turnovers). Cook returned to form, totaling 130 yards and two scores on 31 touches (28 carries), while Thielen added 129 yards on seven receptions. Meanwhile, the defense held the red-hot Saints (who came into the game averaging 36.3 points in their last seven) to 20 points and 324 yards at home, including three sacks and two key takeaways. Next up? The Niners fourth-ranked offense (381.1 yards per game) averaging 30 points per game. Shortening the game by sustaining drives will be critical to the Vikings success.

Outlook: The Vikings go as their running game goes, as it benefits both the defense and passing game. Certainly a recipe for success, Zimmer’s Vikings are now 10-0 when carrying the ball at least 30 times in a game this season (1-6 when they do not). Establishing that will be the key on the road in yet another hostile environment.

TE George Kittle could be the x-factor on Saturday (ninersnation).

On the other side, QB Jimmy Garoppolo finally gets his shot in what will be his first postseason start. The 49ers enter the postseason for the first time since 2013, claiming the number one seed for the first time since 1997. They bring with it one of the best overall units, ranking in the top four in both offense (4th) and defense (2nd). Boasting the league’s best pass defense (169.2 ypg), the Niners game plan will be based on slowing RB Cook and the Vikings sixth-ranked rushing attack. Easier said than done. Especially considering that Shanahan’s group has been susceptible to the run at times, allowing 112.6 yards (17th) on the ground per game. Forcing the game into the hands of Kirk Cousins (7-30 in career vs. winning teams) should be the main focus.

Outlook: Shanahan’s creativity in play-calling has given defenses fits all season. It starts and ends with the running game, where the Niners three-pronged attack combined to rush for 1,939 yards on 397 carries (Raheem Mostert 137 for 772 yards, Tevin Coleman 137 for 544, and Matt Breida 123 for 623). Each one brings a different yet valuable asset that makes them tough to defend. If that’s not enough, Garoppolo is a franchise QB more than capable of shouldering the load. The sixth-year QB orchestrated four game-winning drives this season and tied for fifth in touchdown passes (27). He welcomes a healthy group of playmakers, including favorite target TE George Kittle and WR Emmanuel Sanders - both difficult match-ups for defenses.

In a game featuring two teams with similar philosophies, don't be surprised if it comes down to the final possession. Unlike last week, the 49ers have a much better ground game that the Vikings have to worry about. That opens up the Niners passing game for Garoppolo and co. to do just enough to advance.

Prediction: San Francisco 23, Minnesota 20


No. 6 Tennessee Titans (10-7) at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens (14-2)

All-time Divisional Round: Titans (4-9), Ravens (4-5)

Strange but true: The Titans 71 pass yards were the fewest by any team in a playoff win since the 2009 Ravens (34) - also against the Patriots in the Wild Card Round (NFLResearch).

The matchup: This might end up being the quickest game in playoff history. With both teams predicated on running the football, each will try to impose their will by wearing down the defense. The Titans bring the rushing champ, while the Ravens counter with the league’s top ground attack featuring a transcendent talent. It will mark the fourth time in NFL history that the leading rusher faces the number one ranked rush offense in the playoffs. The leading rusher is 3-0 (NFL).

It’s no secret for Tennessee, especially this time of the year. The offense runs through Derrick Henry. That was showcased last week against New England, when the Titans attempted a mere 16 passes (to 40 rushes) and Henry rumbled his way to 182 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 34 carries. It was the most rushing yards ever allowed by the Patriots in a playoff game under Belichick. The 6-foot-3, 238-pounder has been nearly unstoppable as the season has worn on, totaling 1,078 yards in his last seven games (including Saturday), with at least 150 in five of those. On the road against a team that hasn’t lost since September, Tennessee will need another heavy dose of Henry to have a chance.

Outlook: Baltimore ranked fifth in the league in stopping the run in the regular season (93.4 ypg). But a lot of that had to do with having big leads, controlling the clock, and forcing their opponent into throwing the ball. A look closer and the Ravens allowed 4.4 yards per carry (21st in the league). The Titans have to keep this game close. Their best chance comes in the form of their red-hot running game, which will also keep #8 and co. off the field.

Jackson has taken the league by storm in just his second season (YahooSports). 

Baltimore enters this game winners of 12 straight, with eight of those coming in the form of one-sided, double-digit victories. Boasting the league’s number one offense and fourth-ranked defense, the Ravens have looked the part all season. It’s hard to target a weakness when this team has the ball. MVP favorite Lamar Jackson leads an offense that has been virtually unstoppable - the first team in NFL history to average 200 passing yards and 200 rushing yards per game (NFL.com). The dual-threat signal caller is the equivalent of a video-game-like highlight reel that possesses rare athletic ability at the QB position. In just his second season (first as a full starter), Jackson broke the single season record for rushing yards by a QB (1,206) and led the league with 36 passing TDs (43 total). Stopping him, let alone containing him, might be the toughest ask of any opposing defense to date.

Outlook: Keep on keeping on. The Ravens rushed for an NFL-record 3,296 yards as a team, surpassing the New England Patriots mark of 3,165 set in 1978 (top three were teams from 1970s)! It has led them to this point. While the Titans ranked 12th in stopping the run (104.5 ypg) they haven’t seen anything like what they’ll see Saturday night. Meanwhile, on defense they must sell out to stop the run and make the Titans one-dimensional.

Mike Vrabel will have his team ready to shock the world. And with a long layoff for the Ravens, it might be a perfect opportunity to jump on them early to put the pressure on a young QB. But to beat the Patriots and Ravens in back to back weeks on the road? That’d be near-statue worthy. Titans keep it close, but Jackson and co. pull away late.

Prediction: Baltimore 26, Tennessee 21 

2020 NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview (Part II): Saints, Eagles Hoping to Turn the Tide

After two great AFC games on Saturday, Wildcard Weekend continues with two tasty NFC match-ups today. Can Brees continue his mastery at home? Can Wentz deliver in his first postseason appearance?

Game Previews 

No. 6 Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at No. 3 New Orleans Saints (13-3)

All-time Wild Card Round: Vikings (6-7), Saints (4-5)

Strange but true: In his career, Kirk Cousins is 0-15 against teams that finished with at least 12 wins in a season (ESPN).

Two years removed from the Minneapolis Miracle, these teams meet again - this time in the Big Easy.

Kirk Cousins first postseason start as a member of the purple and yellow. Not an ideal situation having to go against one of the best to ever do it - let alone in his own building. But don’t sleep on the team up north. The Vikings were one of three teams this season that finished in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to Football Outsiders (the other two are enjoying first round byes - BAL & SF). The offense gets a boost as it welcomes back RB Dalvin Cook, who finished 10th in rushing (1,135 yards) and fourth in touchdowns (13) despite missing the final two games of the season. Cook helped establish the league’s sixth-ranked rushing attack (133.3 per game) and eighth-ranked scoring offense (25.4 ppg).

Minnesota will need to run the ball successfully in order to keep the Saints high-octane offense (28.4 ppg) at bay. Coach Zimmer’s group is 9-0 when recording at least 30 carries in a game, 1-6 when they fail to reach that number. It won’t be easy against the Saints run defense, but having Cook back should make for better odds.       

The all-time leader in career TD passes & yards, Brees looks to add to his legacy with another SB (SBNation). 

Drew Brees and co. have been clicking on all cylinders heading into the postseason. In their last seven, the Saints have averaged 36.3 points per game. That includes putting up 46 against the 49ers’ second-ranked defense (282 ypg and 19 ppg). Brees feasts at home (6-1 in the playoffs). Having arguably the best wide receiver in the game - Michael Thomas - is a major advantage. The fourth-year pro set the single season record for catches in a season (149), and led the league with 1,725 yards. With the Vikings down two starting cornerbacks, it will be a mighty challenge to try to slow this connection. Minnesota’s front seven could boast a problem, but the creativity of Sean Payton will counter such a reality.

On defense, it will be strength on strength - the Vikings rushing attack (6th) against the Saints stout front (4th in run defense). Allowing an average of 91.3 yards on the ground, the Saints will need to contain Cook first and foremost, putting the game in the hands of Cousins.

The playoffs have not been kind to the Saints the last two seasons - first the aforementioned Minneapolis Miracle, then last year’s no call (pass interference) debacle against the Rams. Payton’s group is determined to finish what they started last year. Saints get one step closer.

Prediction: Saints 31, Vikings 26


No. 5 Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at No. 4 Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)

All-time Wild Card Round: Seahawks (8-5), Eagles (8-8)

Strange but true: The Seahawks (7) and Eagles (9) combined to have 16 Week 1 starters miss Week 17. If those numbers hold, it would mark the most combined missing Week 1 starters in a playoff game since 1970, per NFL Research (NFL.com).

The only game on Wild Card weekend that pits a rematch from the regular season. In week 12, the Seahawks went into Philly and came out with a 17-9 victory. Both teams look much different this time around.

The Seahawks aren’t exactly riding high heading into this game, having lost three out of their final four games and being ravaged by injuries. But the Hawks did go 7-1 on the road this season (including the win at Philly), and with Russell Wilson under center, that alone gives this team a shot. Despite playing on a team with a run-first approach (fourth in rushing at 137.5 yards per game) and a woeful offensive line, the eight-year veteran ranked third in TD passes (31), and sixth in yards (4,110). His elite play will be needed sans a number of key starters on offense.

Wilson will be without his top lineman (LT Duane Brown), which is not the best news for him. In the first matchup, the Eagles were able to pressure the QB consistently to the tune of six sacks. That was with Brown. As a result, establishing the run will be paramount to the Seahawks success on Sunday. They’ll have to do it without their three RBs from the season - leading rusher Chris Carson (1,230 yards), backup Rashaad Penny (rushed for 129 against the Eagles), and reserve C.J. Prosise. As if that’s not hard enough, they'll be facing the league’s third-ranked rush defense (90.1 per game). Something to keep in mind: when the Seahawks attempt fewer than 30 passes in a game, they are 6-0, but 5-5 when having to rely heavily on the pass (more than 30 attempts). Can they do enough in the running game to result in success?

After watching the past two seasons from the sidelines, Wentz finally gets his first taste of the playoffs (NFL.com).

The Eagles, meanwhile, might be in a tougher situation injury wise. Especially on offense, where they’ve lost all three starting wide receivers (D. Jackson, A. Jeffery, N. Agholor), Pro Bowl G Brandon Brooks, and RBs Corey Clement & Jordan Howard. T Lane Johnson (missed weeks 15-17) and Zach Ertz (missed 17) are also banged up. Through it all, the one constant has been QB Carson Wentz, who led the Eagles to four straight wins (albeit against the dreadful NFC East) down the stretch, averaging over 300 yards passing and throwing 10 TDs to only 1 INT. The four-year pro became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for over 4,000 yards without having a single wide receiver with at least 500 yards (NFL). This will be his first playoff appearance in what figures to be a plus matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most statistical categories - 26th in yards allowed (381.6), 27th in passing (263.9), 22nd in points (24.9 ppg).

The one battle that Philly must win (or at least tie): turnovers. The Eagles are 8-2 when they win or tie in turnover margin (1-5 when they lose it). Seattle ranked fourth in the league in turnover margin (+12) with the third-most takeaways (32). The Eagles were 22nd (-3). Wentz tied for second with most fumbles lost (7). Philly must protect the ball in a game where each possession is heightened all the more.   

Under Pederson's tenure, Philly has won at least one game in each of the team's two postseason appearances. They make it a third, narrowly escaping the Hawks.   

Prediction: Eagles 24, Seahawks 23

2020 NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview (Part I): Young QBs, Legend take Center Stage

A new decade brings a new postseason in the NFL. It brings a number of teams turning back the clock to the days of old when running the football reigned supreme. In a pass happy league, it has been the teams that have turned to the run that have found the most success this season. In fact, the top four rushing teams in the league all made the playoffs (including both top seeds - BAL & SF), while the top four passing teams failed to make the field of 12. Over half (7) of the teams to make the postseason possess a top 10 rushing offense. Only three sport a top 10 passing offense. Will that success translate?

The road to Super Bowl LIV begins with Wild Card weekend, as eight teams hope to keep their dreams of hoisting the Lombardi alive. 2020 brings five new teams from that of a year ago (BUF, TEN, SF, GB, & MIN). The 49ers are making their first trip since 2013 and are a number one seed for the first time since 1997. It’s a youth movement in the AFC, as four of the six starting quarterbacks are 24 years of age or younger (L. Jackson, P. Mahomes, D. Watson, & J. Allen). On the opposite side, the NFC brings a more balanced group of veterans, with half of the teams sporting a QB with six or more years of playoff experience (R. Wilson 6, A. Rodgers 8, & D. Brees 8).  

The age old question: Will the New England emperor rule yet another year? Of the six teams in the AFC, five have a starting QB with one or zero years of postseason experience (Jackson 1, Mahomes 1, Watson 1, Allen 0, Tannehill 0). The outlier? Tom Brady, who will be making trip number 17. The Pats legend has more playoff wins (30) than the 11 other quarterbacks combined (26) (FoxSports).

How important is home field in the wild card round? In six out of the last seven seasons, at least one road team has won. Last season saw three teams (Colts, Chargers, Eagles) win away from home. The most likely candidates this season? The Seahawks, who went 7-1 away from Seattle, and the Bills, who went 6-2 away from New Era Field.  

Game Previews 

Saturday

No. 5 Buffalo Bills (10-6) at No. 4 Houston Texans (10-6)

All-time Wild Card Round: Bills (3-4), Texans (3-2)

Strange but true: The Texans have never played a wild card game on the road – they’ve hosted all six (including Saturday) first round games.

The first ever postseason meeting, this matchup pits two top-10 rushing offenses - Bills 8th (128.4), Texans 9th (125.6). 

Buffalo is making just its second playoff appearance in the last 20 seasons (1999). They bring with it an ever-evolving, yet promising, young QB backed by a strong defense. The Bills ranked third in total defense, including second in points allowed per game (16.2). They allowed 25+ points once all season - tying several teams for fewest such games in a season in the last 80 years, one of which being the 1964 Bills, who went 12-2 and won the AFL Championship (NFLResearch).

In order to duplicate that title, it starts and ends with QB Josh Allen. Making his first postseason appearance, Allen leads an offense that ranked in the latter half of the league in both yards (24th) and points (23rd) per game. The Bills were just 3-6 when failing to score more than 17 points this season. The good news? They play a defense that surrendered an average of 24 points per contest.

Allen can continue to silence the doubters with a win on Saturday (bleacherreport). 

Stop if you've seen this before: A Houston first round playoff game. The Texans enter the postseason for the fourth time in the last five seasons. Yet the only thing to show for it… one playoff win, never having advanced past the divisional round. It begs to question, which team will show up? The one that defeated Kansas City and New England, or the one that lost to Carolina and got throttled by Denver at home? A season ago, the Texans mustered only seven points in yet another first round exit (21-7 loss to the Colts).

Enter 2020, and Houston brings a middling offense (ranked 13th in yards, 14th in points) behind an elite young quarterback in Deshaun Watson, but a struggling defense that surrendered 30+ points six times this season - one that entered Week 17 ranked No. 22 in Football Outsiders' DVOA, worst among any team that had qualified for the playoffs (ESPN). Watson ranked eighth in TD passes with 26, and seventh in QBR (68.9). He will have to be excellent in order for the hosts to advance. The challenge: finding a way to score more than 24 points, something the Bills have allowed only one team to do all season. When Watson and co. reach more than 24, they are 6-1 (4-5 when they don’t).

Which Watson will show up? If it’s primetime Watson, watch out. Otherwise, it could spell yet another disappointing end for Houston. Buffalo hasn’t lost a game this season (7-0) when scoring more than 17 points. They should reach that against the Texans 28th ranked defense to advance to the divisional round, winning their first playoff game since 1995.

Prediction: Bills 24, Texans 21

No. 6 Tennessee Titans (9-7) at No. 3 New England Patriots (12-4)

All-time Wild Card Round: Titans (8-5), Patriots (4-4)

Strange but true: Despite all of the success in the Brady/Belichick era, in the three times New England has failed to achieve a first round bye, they’ve also failed to make it to the Super Bowl. In fact, the franchise has never won a Super Bowl when having to play in the wild card round.

A matchup of lopsided proportions: A QB making his 41st postseason start against a QB making his first. Not to mention, Brady is 20-3 at home in the playoffs and won his last 10.

Obviously not an easy task, but there is reason for optimism for the visitors. After a rocky start to the season had them sitting at 2-4, Tennessee turned to seven-year veteran Ryan Tannehill (his first season with the team) to man the ship. He instantly sparked the offense, leading the Titans to a 7-3 mark and the final wild card spot. He led the league’s fourth-ranked scoring offense during that stretch, completing an impressive 70.3% of his passes (ranked third) with 22 touchdowns to only six interceptions. Add in the league’s rushing champ in workhorse Derrick Henry (303 carries for 1,540 yards) and this is an offense clicking at the right time.

Can the offense keep it up against the league’s number one ranked defense? Since Tannehill took over, Tennessee has flourished in the red zone, finishing the regular season ranked first in the NFL - converting touchdowns on three out of every four (75.6%) trips inside the 20 (usatoday). On the flip side, New England excels in forcing opponents to settle for field goals inside the red zone, stopping teams on 48.3% of trips, fourth-best in the NFL (usa). Sure sustaining drives is key, but the Titans must score six instead of three on opportunities inside the 20-yard line in order to leave Gillette with a win.

Can the Titans ride the rushing champ to another upset victory? (titansized.com)

For the first time in ten seasons (2009), Tom Brady and co. enter the playoffs without having a first-round bye. If Brady wants to get to that elusive 10th Super Bowl, he’ll have to do something he’s never done: win three consecutive conference playoff games. Would anything surprise you with #12 behind center? Not in January, not when Belichick will have his team playing at their best.

The Patriots formula has been reversed from that of most seasons, as the defense has carried them much of the way - ranked first in both total defense (276 YPG) and scoring defense (14.1 PPG). Brady has been a shell of years past, completing just 60 percent of passes (27th) with a QB rating of 88.0 (19th). But playoff Brady is a different animal.

If one thing is certain over the years, it’s Belichick taking away the offense’s top threat. Can the defense contain Henry and the Titans third-ranked rushing attack (139 YPG)? One matchup to watch: running the ball outside. The Titans ranked third in the NFL in yards per carry on runs toward both the left end (6.7 yards per play) and the right end (7.1) (usatoday). Meanwhile, the Patriots ranked 27th in stopping rushes to the right end (6.3). If the Titans can exploit that, look out. But if history is any indication, Belichick will have his defense ready and able to stop the run.

With speculation this could be Brady’s final season in New England (I’ll believe it when I see it), there’s no way he could lose what would be his final home game. The Patriots always seem to find a way. They advance to their 10th consecutive Divisional round.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Titans 17