2018 NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview

January football has arrived. And if the 2017 regular season was any indication, the postseason is about to be wild. 

The NFL playoff picture has seen a seismic shift from a season ago as eight new teams enter the postseason field, tying 2003 for the most turnover in the current 12-team format (ESPN). And it all starts this weekend, as six of the eight will be in action. 

Does home field matter? In four out of the last five seasons, at least one away team has won a game in the Wild Card Round. In 2015, all four road teams advanced, while last season saw every home team come away victorious. Of this year's home teams, the Rams are the only team that didn't have much success as hosts in the regular season (4-4). The Chiefs and Jaguars were 6-2, while the Saints were 7-1 (7 straight). Of the away teams, the Bills & Titans were 3-5 on the road, while the Falcons and Panthers were a more promising 5-3.

(NFL.com)

Fun Fact: Wild Card Weekend will feature four rookie RB’s who tallied over 1,000 yards from scrimmage – Chiefs’ Kareem Hunt (1,782), Saints’ Alvin Kamara (1,554), Jaguars’ Leonard Fournette (1,342), and Panthers’ Christian McCaffrey (1,086).

Game Previews

Saturday

No. 5 Tennessee Titans (9-7) at No. 4 Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

All-time Wild Card Round: Titans 7-5, Chiefs 3-7

Strange but true: The Chiefs have the second-worst postseason win percentage (.346) in NFL history (9-17).

Tennessee is making its first postseason appearance since 2008 and seeking its first win since 2003. They enter the field losing three out of their last four and have yet to find an identity (or creativity) on offense. A season after ranking third in rushing (136 YPG), the Titans have plummeted to 15^th (114.6) in 2017, including 23^rd in total offense. On the flip side, the defense has been stout against the run, allowing just 88.8 yards per game (4^th), but susceptible against the pass -- ranking 25^th (239.3). They’ll need to contain the Chiefs playmakers and establish offensive consistency to steal a win on the road.

After orchestrating a career year, Smith is hoping to lead the Chiefs on a deep playoff run (sbnation).

Kansas City enters this game on the banks of a roller-coaster season. After starting 5-0, the Chiefs lost six of their next 7, before winning four consecutive to wrap up the AFC West. Behind the arm - and career year - of QB Alex Smith (tops in the league with 104.7 passer rating) & legs of surprise rookie RB sensation Kareem Hunt (the league leader in rushing), the Chiefs ranked fifth in total offense (7^th in passing & 9^th in rushing). Add in the dynamic threats of TE Travis Kelce (1^st in Rec, 2^nd in yards and TD among TE) and WR Tyreek Hill (7^th in receiving yards) and this is one of the more difficult offenses to defend. On the other hand however, the defense has struggled (28^th) throughout the course of the season. They’ve made up for it with 26 takeaways (12 in their last four) - including a +15 turnover margin (ranked 2^nd). 

For Tennessee to have a chance, they’ll have to open up the playbook and go stride for stride with a Kansas City team that is riding high (and at home). It’s hard to see such a scenario.

Prediction: Kansas City 27, Tennessee 20

No. 6 Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at No. 3 Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

All-time Wild Card Round: Falcons 3-4, Rams 3-5

Strange but true: HC Sean McVay wasn’t even born the last time the Rams hosted a playoff game in Los Angeles (January 4, 1986). In fact, only two players on the roster were born at the time: center John Sullivan & LT Andrew Whitworth (NFLResearch).

Under the lights at the Coliseum. There isn’t a better setup all weekend as the defending NFC Champions travel to LA to take on the league’s highest scoring offense (29.9 PPG). For what it's worth, in each of the last two seasons, the team to lead the league in scoring (Carolina, Atlanta) has made it to the Super Bowl. 

Making their second consecutive playoff appearance (only NFC returnee), Atlanta is hoping to ignite an underwhelming offense. For whatever reason, they’ve been unable to sustain any consistency, particularly in scoring, averaging just 22.1 PPG (compared to a league best 33.8 last season). They’ll need to find some rhythm in order to keep pace with the league’s highest scoring offense. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have quietly put together a strong defense (9^th in total yards, 8^th in points allowed) especially as of late, holding their final six opponents to an average of 17.5 PPG (4-2 in those games). Ultimately, the objective in this game: score 20 points. The Dirty Birds are 10-0 when scoring 20 or more points this season, and 0-6 when failing to reach that plateau.

Matt Ryan and co. are hoping to shake the ghosts of last season's SB loss (AtlantaFalcons.com).

The Rams are making their first appearance since 2004 (first as LA since 1989)! They bring with it the youngest coach in the league (McVay) and just four players on the roster with playoff experience. Nonetheless, the turnaround has been astounding, as QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley have led an offensive resurgence – going from worst to first in points per game from last season to this season (14 to 29.9), just the second team in NFL history to do so (1965 49ers). Gurley – the third player in league history to tally at least 2,000 scrimmage yards, 10 rushing TD’s, and more than 5 receiving scores (NFL) – will have to make his presence known in order for the Rams to advance. The defense (under Wade Phillips) has improved as the season has progressed. Despite ranking 19^th in total defense, the Rams have totaled 28 takeaways (5^th), which will be a key factor come Saturday.  

In a matchup of teams with explosive playmakers, this has the potential to be the highest scoring game on the slate. In the end, the experience of the Falcons will be too much for the youthful Rams. Cue the 20-point unbeaten streak.  

Prediction: Atlanta 30, Los Angeles 24

Sunday

No. 6 Buffalo Bills (9-7) at No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

All-time Wild Card Round: Bills 3-3, Jaguars 3-2

Strange but true: Only four teams in the Super Bowl era have made the playoffs with a worse point differential than the 2017 Bills (-57). All four of them won a game in the playoffs (NFL).

A matchup of two postseason newcomers. And a coach – Doug Marrone – that abandoned ship in Buffalo (by opting out of his contract two years ago) only to be the head man in Jacksonville. 

Buffalo comes in having broken the longest active playoff drought in American (pro) sports, making its first appearance since 1999. In order to avoid a one-and-done scenario, they’ll have to find success against one of the best defenses in the league. A tall task for an offense that ranks 29^th in total offense and 22^nd in scoring (18.9). Leaning on their 6^th ranked ground attack (126.1 YPG) is important, as the Jags have surrendered 116.3 rushing yards per game (21st). QB Tyrod Taylor will have to extend drives with his legs in order to have a chance in this one.

Behind a suffocating defense (2nd in total D, sacks, and scoring D), the Jags are out to silence the doubters (Yahoo sports).

Jacksonville is making its first appearance since 2007. They’ve done it by dominating the trenches, boasting the number one rushing offense (141.4 YPG) and tallying the second most sacks (55) in the league. On paper, that script should continue, as the Jaguars welcome the 29^th ranked rush defense (124.6) and an offense that has surrendered 47 sacks (7^th most in the league). But as we’ve seen time and time again, the success begins and ends with QB Blake Bortles. He’ll have to be smart (& effective) to secure the Jags first playoff win in ten years.

Ultimately, the Bills chances diminish if LeSean McCoy isn't fully healthy (ankle injury). But even with him available, the Jags stifling defense (2^nd in the league) and top rushing attack should be too much.  

Prediction: Jacksonville 20, Buffalo 10

No. 5 Carolina Panthers (11-5) at No. 4 New Orleans Saints (11-5)

All-time Wild Card Round: Panthers 3-0, Saints 3-5

Strange but true: Since 2011, Cam Newton’s 58.5 completion percentage ranks last in the NFL (min. 1,500 attempts). In that same span, Drew Brees has completed a league best 68.8 percent of his passes (NFLResearch).

As if two meetings weren’t enough, the final game on the slate brings a third matchup between NFC South rivals. The Saints dominated the season’s previous meetings (34-13 in Carolina & 31-21 at home).  

Two seasons removed from a Super Bowl appearance, Carolina returns (after a one-year hiatus). Super Cam is hoping for a different result this time around. The playoffs haven’t quite brought out his best however. Despite a 3-3 postseason record (and a SB appearance), Newton has completed just 59.8 percent of his passes with a TD-INT ratio of 8-7. In a matchup against a high-powered Saints offense (28 PPG), he’ll have to be much better. Per usual, the key for the Panthers comes down to the trenches: control the football with the running game & contain Sean Payton's two-headed backfield. Something few have been able to accomplish. 

Ingram & Kamara are leading an explosive offensive attack in the Big Easy (nola.com).

The Saints are making their first appearance since 2013 headed by a dynamic RB duo & a future HOF QB. Alvin Kamara (1,554) and Mark Ingram (1,540) - the first running back teammates in NFL history to each record at least 1,500 yards from scrimmage in the same season (NFL) - spearhead the league's number two ranked offense. Containing them is hard enough. Then, there is QB Drew Brees, who completed an NFL record 72 percent of his passes this season. He’s even better on the bigger stage, as no QB in the Super Bowl era has averaged more passing yards per game (321.3) in the playoffs (NFL). Digging deeper, Brees’ favorite target – WR Michael Thomas – ranked 3rd in catches (104) and 6th in yards (1,245). A tall task for any team to stop, let alone contain. Even tougher at the Superdome. 

Few things go together better than Drew Brees and the Big Easy. The veteran QB is 4-0 with 10 TD passes and 0 INT in home playoff games with the Saints (NFL). The unbeaten streak continues as they take down the Panthers for a third time this season.  

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Carolina 24