Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 16

Ten nuggets from the week
The Seahawks became the first team to win a game having recorded more penalty yards (142) than total yards (136) since the 1966 Eagles (ESPNStats&Info)…

The Eagles clinched the #1 seed and home field throughout the playoffs. They are the only team to win every game at home so far this season (7-0)...

The Jaguars clinched their first division title since 1999 while the Rams clinched their first since 2003...

The Browns clinched the #1 draft pick for the second consecutive season...

Saints QB Drew Brees became the third quarterback in NFL history to throw for 70,000 yards, joining Peyton Manning and Brett Favre (ESPNStats)...

Rams’ Sean McVay became the youngest head coach in NFL history to lead his team to the playoffs...

Seattle’s Russell Wilson became the first QB in NFL history to have a winning record in each of his first six seasons (NFLResearch)…

Steelers CB Mike Hilton became the first cornerback with 3 sacks in a game since sacks became official in 1982 (NFLResearch)…

The Vikings beat the Packers 16-0, recording their first shutout since 1993. They went 386 games between shutouts, the third longest streak in NFL history (ESPNStats)…

2017 will mark the first time in the Super Bowl era that the Cowboys, Giants, Redskins, Packers, and 49ers all missed the playoffs (NFLResearch).

Five Takeaways

5. Who is the favorite in the NFC?
This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting postseasons in recent memory, particularly in the NFC. Even more so if it has to go through Minnesota (the host for Super Bowl LII). Currently, the top four seeds in the NFC - Philadelphia, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and New Orleans - all rank in the top ten in total offense. The top two seeds (Philadelphia, Minnesota) also boast top ten (top 5) defenses.

Philadelphia seems to have lost a step since losing Carson Wentz behind center, but still remain unbeaten at home. The Vikings seem to be the most complete team, although it remains to be seen just how far journeyman-turned-star - Case Keenum - can take them. The Rams are young and inexperienced (first playoff app in 13 seasons) with a first year head coach and just six players (on the roster) who have played in a playoff game. Meanwhile, the Saints boast a Sean Payton-Drew Brees combination that has been there before. And a lethal backfield duo (Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram) which creates a number of mismatches for opposing defenses. But playing away from home has never been a forte for the Saints over the years (This season: 3-3 in true road games, and 7-1 at home with 7 straight wins).

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11 seasons in the making, Brees-Payton represent one of the best QB-HC duos in the league (sportingnews.com).
With so many quality teams in the NFC, it may be hard to find a distinct favorite. But one thing is for certain come January: the NFC is bound to live up to the hype.
          
4. Browns hit historic low
How is it even possible to be this bad for this long?

The Cleveland Browns are on the wrong side of re-writing history. With Sunday’s loss to Chicago (a 20-3 drubbing), the Browns remained winless on the season (0-15), and are now a horrendous (and unbelievable) 1-30 under Hue Jackson. Even more staggering… in their last 52 games, they are 4-48. For a franchise with one of the most loyal fan bases in all of the NFL, the product the Browns have put on the field has been consistently porous year after year. And with one more loss, they will become just the second team in NFL history to finish a season 0-16.

Fun Fact: The Browns are the first team to pick no. 1 overall in consecutive drafts since 1999-2000 (also the Browns).

3. Jimmy G climbing up the ranks of the elite?
Okay, it's early. But what a start to the career of Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco. The Eastern Illinois product is reviving a once dire franchise (1-10) with his astounding play -- resulting in four consecutive wins. On Sunday, he scorched the league’s number one passing/scoring defense to the tune of 242 yards, three touchdowns and 44 points (the most the Jags have allowed all season). He tallied the highest completion percentage and passer rating of any QB against the Jaguars all season:  
         
                Quarterbacks vs. Jaguars Defense
Weeks 1-15 Jimmy G (Week 16)
Comp Pct 56.7 70.0
Pass YPG 174 242
TD-INT 10-18 2-1
Passer Rtg 63.2 102.4

And don't forget, Garoppolo is doing this with unheralded players (George Kittle, Trent Taylor, Kyle Juszczyk, and Marquise Goodwin). In other words, he is elevating the play of his supporting cast - a significant factor in elite QB play. The combination of Shanahan-Garoppolo looks like a lethal one for years to come.

Fun Fact: Jimmy Garoppolo is 6-0 as a starter (4-0 w/ Niners, 2-0 w/ Pats) becoming the first QB to win each of his first six starts since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. 

2. Gurley continues MVP surge
Rams RB Todd Gurley continued his MVP campaign by tallying 276 yards from scrimmage (118 rushing & 158 receiving on 10 catches) and two touchdowns, becoming the first player to record 100 rushing yards and 150 receiving yards in a game since Herschel Walker in 1986 (SportsCenter). In addition, the dual-threat became the third player in NFL history to tally more than 2000 yards from scrimmage, 10+ rushing TD’s and 5+ receiving TD’s in a season (NFLNetwork). All while leading the Rams to their first division title since 2003. In a pass-heavy league, Gurley continues to dazzle as the feature back in McVay's offense, serving as a game-changer for the LA franchise.

The last time a RB won the MVP? Adrian Peterson in 2012. You could argue Gurley is having a superior season (than that of Peterson's):

Image result for todd gurley vs adrian peterson MVP season
(yahoosports)
The ultra-sensation appears to be getting stronger as the season wears on, which can only bode well for a team seeking to make a deep postseason run.

1. Diamond in the rough
Oftentimes, injuries behind center derail a teams' hope for success (i.e. Packers). Other times, it just so happens to act as a blessing in disguise. In the off-season, the Vikings signed QB Case Keenum as a serviceable backup to the oft-injured Sam Bradford. They needed depth in a QB room that included Teddy Bridgewater coming off a year-long injury.

As the story goes, Bradford didn't last more than one full game. And with Bridgewater still on the mend, the next man up was an undrafted journeyman from Houston who had limited success in his two previous stints (9-15).

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The Keenum-led Vikings are hoping to be the first team ever to play a SB at home (WSJ). 
All the fifth-year product has done since is flourish, leading Skol nation to the AFC North title and a number two seed in the playoffs. Sometimes all it takes is a great opportunity in a great situation. Which is exactly what the Vikings offered, with OC Pat Shurmur being the catalyst.
                       
     What a Turnaround: Keenum's Career at a Glance
2012-16 (Texans, Rams) 2017 (Vikings)
Record 9-15 10-3
Comp/Att 454/777 (58.4%) 304/452 (67.3%)
YDS 5,224 3,358
TD-INT 24-20 21-7
QB Rating 78.6 98.1

Keenum's perseverance has ignited not only his career, but a Vikings fan base seeking its first ever Super Bowl title. Leading to one of the best stories of the 2017 football season.

Fun Fact: Keenum has more wins this season (10) than he had in his previous five seasons combined (9).

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