NFL Championship Sunday: A Chance at History

Four teams. Only two tickets to Minneapolis. One thing is certain: At least one team will have a shot at hoisting the Lombardi for the first time in franchise history (Jaguars, Vikings and Eagles). And the Vikings? They can become the first team in league history to play in a Super Bowl at home. Not your everyday scenario.

One of the most immaculate NFL stadiums awaits the winners (usbankstadium.com). Will the Vikings make history?

It has long been the notion that a franchise signal caller is the backbone to making a Super Bowl run. And while few could argue such an idea, three of the four remaining teams may suggest a new theory: defense trumps all. This weekend will mark the first time since the 1970 merger that all four teams in the conference championship games enter with a Top 5 scoring defense from the regular season (NFL.com):

1.) Vikings (15.8 PPG)

2.) Jaguars (16.8 PPG)

4.) Eagles (18.4 PPG)

5.) Patriots (18.5 PPG)

More remarkably, three of the four teams didn’t even record winning seasons in 2016 (Jaguars 3-13, Eagles 7-9, and Vikings 8-8). Not to mention, their QBs sport a combined five playoff starts behind center. It’s rarefied territory. Something the Patriots can only be smiling at.

If history is any indication, it favors the one’s: in the last five postseasons, number one seeds are 7-0 on championship Sunday.

So with that, let's get to it. 

(NFL.com)

No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 1 New England Patriots

All-time AFC Championship: Jaguars 0-2, Patriots 9-4

Head-to-head in postseason: Patriots lead 3-1

Talk about a historical mismatch of epic proportions. Since the Jaguars entered the NFL in 1995, they are 1-10 (.091) against the Patriots (including playoffs) – the worst winning percentage of any team vs. one opponent (NFL). A matchup of a team that has never reached the Super Bowl against a team seeking its tenth trip. Even more, the Patriots are making their seventh consecutive AFC Championship appearance and riding a seven-game playoff win streak at home with an average margin of victory of 18.3 points in those games (usatoday). In the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots are 10-0 in the playoffs against AFC South teams in Foxboro. On paper, another walk in the park for New England.

Historical notes aside, this matchup pits two teams that ranked in the top five in both scoring offense and scoring defense in the regular season. The Jaguars ranked second in scoring defense (16.8) and fifth in scoring offense (26.1 PPG) while the Patriots were the opposite: second in scoring offense (28.6 PPG) and fifth in scoring defense (18.5).

The Jags will need a heavy dose of Fournette in order to advance (SBNation).

Jaguars will win if: they win the turnover battle & run the ball 25+ times.

Aside from getting pressure on Brady, the recipe for the Jags is simple: run the football and don’t turn the ball over. New England is a sub-par 8-9 in the playoffs when they surrender 25 or more carries to its opponent. In fact, in each of the Pats three regular season losses, their opposition tallied at least 25 rushes (and over 100 yards). Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 12-4 (including playoffs) this season when reaching that plateau, including 4-0 when Fournette alone reaches 25, and 5-1 when he rushes for 100 yards or more. 

The difficulty here is that the Patriots are known for taking away the opposition’s best weapon – in this case Fournette – meaning this game will surely be in the hands of Blake Bortles. Not a sight most Jags fans want to see. Jacksonville is 8-0 (including playoffs) this season when Bortles doesn’t turn the ball over and 4-6 when he has at least one turnover. All the more reason, that sticking to the ground game is paramount, even if it amounts to little success early. It shortens the game and allows the Jags suffocating defense to unleash. Oh yeah, and keep this in mind: the Patriots are 18-0 when the opposition fails to reach 25 carries.

Patriots will win if: they keep on keeping on (play disciplined football).

In the divisional round, the Patriots went to the hurry-up offense, gashing the overwhelmed Titans to the tune of 438 yards (337 passing) on 80 offensive snaps (53 pass attempts). Not surprisingly, Brady relied on the short passing game, as 20 of his 35 completions went to his running backs or tight ends, and 11 went to Amendola in the slot. A similar philosophy should be tougher to execute against the Jaguars number one ranked pass defense. 

Which means a heavy dose of the running game (441 yards on 103 carries in their last three) could be in store, as the Jags surrendered 116.3 rushing yards per game (21^st) in the regular season (106.5 per game so far in the postseason). In fact, the Patriots are 8-0 when RB Dion Lewis tallies 100+ scrimmage yards. Expect him to be a staple on Sunday. Another key will be getting a lead early. It will not only cause the inconsistent Bortles to force the issue, but also take the Jaguars strength – running the football – out of the game plan.

Prediction

The young and confident Jags are peaking at the right time behind a ferocious defense - mimicking the Seahawks of old. But it's hard envisioning Bortles going three straight games without a turnover. The Patriots experience will be too much. 

Patriots 31, Jaguars 16

   

(NFL.com)

No. 2 Minnesota Vikings at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles

All-time NFC Championship: Vikings 4-5, Eagles 2-4

Head-to-head in postseason: Eagles lead 3-0

Case Keenum vs. Nick Foles. Former teammates. Backups forced into starting roles. Just like everyone scripted. It marks the first time since at least 1970 that two quarterbacks will meet in the conference championship after neither QB started in Week 1 of that season (NFL). 

The winner will have a shot at breaking their teams’ long-standing SB droughts, as the Vikings and Eagles are the only two franchises to have a winning record in the Super Bowl era but no Super Bowl victories (NFL). They also boast the most playoff wins of any team in that span without a title (Vikings 20, Eagles 16). It has been even worse for Minnesota, who is 0-5 in its last five conference championship games.

Keenum is hoping to bring the Vikes home to SB LII (athlonsports.com).

Vikings will win if: they win the battle of the trenches & force a turnover.

This will be the toughest defensive front the Vikings have seen all season. Ranked number one in rush defense (79.2 YPG), the Eagles held the Falcons to 86 yards on the ground. Minnesota often leans on its 7th-ranked rushing attack (122.3 YPG) to take control of games, meaning Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon (27 carries for 84 yards against Saints) will be pivotal in opening up the passing game. More importantly, the O-line will need to stand its ground more effectively than it did last weekend. In the divisional round, Keenum went 3-of-11 with 1 INT and a passer rating of 5.1 against pressure (NFL). The Eagles led the NFL with 271 QB pressures this season. In what is sure to be poor conditions, controlling the line of scrimmage will be huge. 

On the other side, Minnesota needs to make Philadelphia one-dimensional by forcing Foles to beat them. In the four games since Wentz’s injury, the Eagles have averaged 277.5 total YPG. If applied over the full 2017 season, that would give them the NFL’s worst total offense (NFL). Enter Minnesota, who boasts the number one ranked defense (from the regular season), who just held the dynamic duo of Alvin Kamara & Mark Ingram to 68 yards rushing on 21 attempts. Shutting down the Eagles backfield will force the Eagles to turn to the passing game where Foles has struggled. In all, the Vikings are 10-1 this season (including playoffs) when forcing a turnover and 12-1 when rushing for at least 100 yards. Both will be key come Sunday. 

Eagles will win if: they run the ball 30+ times and win third down.

Going up against the league’s number one ranked defense won’t be easy. Especially with a back-up QB. So riding their third-ranked rushing attack (132.2 YPG) is the best recipe for success. Even against the Vikings second-ranked rush defense (83.6 YPG). In each of Minnesota’s losses this season, the opponent rushed for at least 100 yards on 30 or more attempts. 

The Eagles, behind one of the best offensive lines in football (All-Pro Center Jason Kelce, Pro Bowl RG Brandon Brooks, and All-Pro LT Lane Johnson) and a bruising set of backs (Jay Ajayi & LeGarrette Blount) are 10-0 this season when rushing the ball 30 or more times (4-3 when failing to reach 30). Reaching that plateau coupled with converting on third down will be important. The Vikings defense ranks first in third-down defense, allowing a mere 25 percent conversion rate. After converting just 6-of-13 (46%) in the divisional round, the Eagles need to find ways to extend drives in order to have a chance.

Prediction

The Eagles are 8-1 (8-0 with full unit - rested some starters Week 17) at home this season. But there isn’t a more complete team than the one in Minnesota. And after last week’s ‘Minneapolis Miracle’, this team seems destined to be the first team ever to host a Super Bowl. 

Vikings 17, Eagles 16