Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Super Bowl LII: History Awaits

Experience vs. inexperience. A first-timer making just his fourth career playoff start vs. an eight-timer making his 37th (eighth SB start). A backup-turned-starter vs. a legend. A team looking for its first title in franchise history vs. a team looking to make history with its sixth (which would tie Pittsburgh for most all-time). Eagles vs. Patriots. Part two. Winner take all – to reach the pinnacle of professional football.   

Image result for super bowl logo
(NFL.com)

What does history say?
This will be the sixth Super Bowl rematch (Patriots defeated Eagles in SB XXXIX). In the last three rematches (and four of the last five), the team that won the first meeting also won the second.

Defense over offense? In each of the last five Super Bowls, the team with the higher ranked total offense has lost (ATL, CAR, SEA, DEN, and SF). Meanwhile, the team with the higher ranked total defense has won three of the last five (two consecutive). The Patriots enter with the higher ranked offense (#1), while the Eagles enter with the higher ranked defense (#4).

Favorite or Underdog? The underdog has won seven of the last ten Super Bowls, including five out of the last six (last year broke the streak). The Patriots are favored once again (1-2 in the last three in which they were favored).  

Uniforms? Oddly enough, a factor that has increasingly become a predictor over the years is uniforms. 12 out of the last 13 (each of the last six) Super Bowl winners have worn white jerseys (including the Pats previous victory over the Eagles). New England will once again don the whites. In the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots are 3-0 in the SB when wearing white tops.

Can Brady be the first? No player to lead the NFL in passing yards has ever won the Super Bowl (0-5) that same season (NFLResearch). Tom Brady led the league in passing yards this season (4,577). In fact, the last time he went to the Super Bowl after accomplishing that feat, he lost (Giants 2007).

The Matchup

Image result for super bowl
History will be made on Sunday with a first title or a sixth (minneapolis.org). 
The Favorite: New England Patriots
The continuity is astounding. The success is unbelievable. And here they are again for a shot at yet another Super Bowl. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have defied the odds of turnover in today's game, earning the most playoff wins by any head coach/quarterback combination in NFL history (27) - 13 more than the next closest tandem (NFL). On Sunday, they make their eighth appearance in the big game with a shot at history... a sixth Lombardi. 

The offense continues to hum behind #12 - even at his old age - ranking second in points (28.6 PPG) and first in yards (394.2 YPG). With no elite talent (aside from Gronk), it’s an offense that finds success from every component doing its job, with Brady often finding a mismatch and exploiting it (i.e. Danny Amendola against the Jaguars). 

Going up against the number one rush defense (79.2 YPG) and arguably the best defensive line in football, the Pats will more than likely turn to the quick passing game and no-huddle offense to minimize the pass rush (and keep the Eagles from subbing). Moreover, Brady loves utilizing his running backs out of the backfield (White/Lewis/Burkhead caught a league-best nine TD passes this season). Philly’s D allowed opposing RBs to score five TDs on receptions, tied for second most in the NFL (ESPN) – meaning a heavy dose of flooding the backs with passes could be in store. And if the Eagles decide to bring pressure? Brady is even better, boasting the third-best QBR against the blitz this season.

If there’s any weakness in New England, it’s the defense. The Pats rank 29th in yards allowed (366) and 24th in defensive efficiency – giving up the second-most yards per play. Remarkably, the unit ranks fifth in scoring defense (18.5 PPG) thanks to stiffening inside the red zone and holding its opponents to FGs (over TDs). The Eagles, who rank ninth in offensive efficiency, boast a group of great athletes – with no true standout – so defending them will be a tall task (certainly the toughest of the playoffs). It starts up front where the Patriots ranked seventh in sacks (42) in the regular season (recorded eight in the Divisional Round). Expect the defense to take away the running game and key in on QB Nick Foles. Getting pressure will be key in slowing the Philly offense, as Foles ranks 32nd in QBR and 42nd in yards per play when the heat is on (ESPN). 

Ultimately, regardless of how the defense performs, one thing is certain: when you have Brady in your back pocket, it’s easier to take chances and get away with mistakes.

The Underdog: Philadelphia Eagles
Underdog at home against a #6 seed? Underdog at home a week later against the Vikings? The beat goes on for the underrated Eagles as they continue to silence the doubters in the wake of [superstar-in-the-making] Carson Wentz’ absence. Up next? The modern era dynasty and five-time champions. In other words, another mountain to climb. If not, Mt. Everest. 

Riding the coattails of backup QB Nick Foles, the Philly offense hit its stride in the NFC championship. They’ll need to duplicate that effort in order to take down the gold standard. A big reason for the success: the Run-Pass Option. On such plays, Foles is completing an absurd 93.8 percent of his passes with a QBR of 96.6 (NFL). It could be a game-changer come Sunday, as the Patriots allowed 5.6 yards per play on RPOs this season - fifth most in the NFL. 

Foles' career compares quite well to his superstar teammate (Sportscenter). 
Ranking seventh in total offense (365.8 YPG) and third in points per game (28.6), the Eagles offense is heating up – averaging 395 yards and 26.5 points in the postseason (including 456 yards against the number one ranked defense). It begins up front, where an athletic offensive line (two first team All-Pros) leads the way (for Jay Ajayi-LeGarrette Blount) with its third-ranked rushing attack (132.2 YPG). The Patriots – who allowed a whopping 4.71 yards per carry in the regular season (3.5 in the playoffs) – will have its work cut out for them as Ajayi averaged 5.8 YPC since coming over in a trade from Miami (3.9 in the postseason). 

An X-factor could be third-string RB Corey Clement, particularly in the passing game -- where the Pats have struggled against shifty RBs on the outside. In the end, the most important key for the Eagles will be staying aggressive – not letting the moment get too big. Something HC Doug Pederson has successfully illustrated all season long (up to this point).  

Meanwhile, the defense has been stellar, picking up right where it left off in the regular season. Through two postseason games, the unit has allowed just 17 points (8.5 per). Much like the offense, it starts with the hog mollies up front. The Eagles D-line is loaded with depth - led the league with 271 QB pressures - hurrying the opposition on 41 percent of drop-backs in the regular season (PFF). 

In strolls one of the all-time greats behind center (and an offense with a bevy of options) – a whole new beast for a defense looking to impose its will. Something to keep in mind: in the Patriots two SB losses to the Giants, the defensive front generated pressure on over 40 percent of Brady’s drop-backs. The Eagles have the pieces, but can they execute on the biggest stage? Especially in the fourth quarter with the game on the line? Time will tell. 

So... how can a team like the Eagles do something so few have been able to accomplish?

The Blueprint to beating the Patriots:
1. Run the ball! New England is 9-9 when surrendering 25+ carries to the opposition in the postseason, while the Eagles are 14-1 when tallying 25+ rushes this season.  

2. Score 25 points. The Patriots are 5-6 when allowing the opposition to score 25+ in the playoffs. The Eagles averaged 28.6 in the regular season (26.5 in the postseason) and are 13-0 when reaching that plateau this season.  

3. Win the turnover battle. In the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots are a mediocre 10-9 when they lose the TO battle in the postseason.

4. Keep New England under 20. Easier said than done. But the Pats are 2-7 when held under 20 points. The Eagles are 8-1 when holding their opponent under 20 this season (lone loss was when they rested starters in finale).

5. Sack the QB. The Patriots are 4-4 when Brady goes down three or more times. Philly is 6-1 this season when recording three or more sacks.

Obviously accomplishing all of these sounds nearly impossible. Sounds more like executing a perfect game. But sometimes that's what it takes to knock off a juggernaut. Completing 1 and 2 is a must, as it would mean keeping #12 on the sidelines and scoring touchdowns over field goals. Not surprisingly, that's when the Eagles have had the most success this season.

Prediction
Everyone is on the Patriots. And how could you blame them? After all, entering SB LII, Tom Brady has played in seven Super Bowls in his career, as many as the entire Eagles roster combined (NFLResearch). That alone makes them a heavy favorite. But there’s just something about being an underdog in the big game. And keep this in mind: only two QBs have started in a Super Bowl after having fewer regular season starts than Nick Foles (3) - Redskins Doug Williams (1987) and Giants Jeff Hostetler (1990) who both started two games in the regular season (NFL)… Both won the Super Bowl… Both defeated Hall of Fame QBs -- John Elway and Jim Kelly. 

Foles and the Eagles shock the world, capturing the franchise’s first Lombardi. Fly, Eagles, Fly! Eagles 31, Patriots 30

No comments:

Post a Comment