And then there were eight. After an entertaining wild card
weekend, the match-ups are set for an intriguing divisional round. One that is
wildly lopsided in playoff experience (behind center).
Career playoff starts by the eight starting QBs in the
second round (by matchup):
Nick Foles (1) vs. Matt Ryan (9)
Marcus Mariota (1) vs. Tom Brady (34)
Blake Bortles (1) vs. Ben Roethlisberger (20)
Case Keenum (0) vs. Drew Brees (12)
Not surprisingly, three of the four teams led by the inexperienced signal caller are underdogs (Keenum & the Vikings are favored).
Just one of the many story-lines heading into another football filled weekend.
Game Previews
For what it's worth: in four out of the last five postseasons, at least one road team has advanced to Championship weekend (last season saw two).
Saturday
No. 6 Atlanta Falcons
at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles
All-time Divisional Round: Falcons 4-5, Eagles 7-6
Strange but true:
Since 1998, 10 quarterbacks have started a playoff game with 3-or-fewer starts
in that regular season (Nick Foles will be the 11th). Those QBs
combined to go 0-10 in the playoffs (NFL.com).
It’s the battle of the birds, with one limping and the other
flying high.
Fresh off a dominating performance against the league’s
highest scoring offense (26-13), the Falcons look to continue the momentum when
they travel to Philadelphia. Another tall task awaits, as the Eagles offense ranked
third in both rushing (132.2 YPG) and scoring (28.6 PPG) in the regular season.
And while the Atlanta offense has yet to reach its full potential (at least
compared to last season), the defense has been leading the charge – allowing
just 23 points in its last two games while holding opposing QB’s to a paltry 48%
completion percentage (38/79). The offense has turned into more of a
ground-and-pound attack which will be a challenge on the road against the
league’s number one rush defense (79.2 YPG). Ultimately, it comes down to two
metrics to determine the Falcons success: time of possession & scoring 20
points. The Dirty Birds are 9-1 when possessing the ball more than the opposition
and 11-0 when reaching the 20-point plateau.
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| Matty Ice has a QB rating of 100+ in each of his last five playoff games (sportingnews.com) |
The Eagles enter this matchup on the back of a middling QB
who has yet to find his footing. Ever since losing MVP candidate Carson Wentz (ACL),
Philly’s explosiveness & offensive production have plummeted behind QB Nick
Foles. In his last two games (both at home), the six-year signal caller
completed just 46.9 percent of his passes with one TD and two INTs. It won’t
get any easier against a suffocating Falcons secondary. Nonetheless, the Eagles
are predicated on an old-school type of football – winning the battle of the
trenches – ranking first in rush defense and third in rush offense. Meaning one
thing: with Foles behind center, the recipe for success will surely be the
same. Wearing the Falcons down on the ground with the Ajayi-Blount-Clement
combination (on what is bound to be frigid conditions) will be a key indicator
of success for the Eagles.
With two top-10 defenses, this game could come down to the
passing game and special teams. Advantage, Falcons.
Prediction: Falcons
23, Eagles 17
No. 5 Tennessee
Titans at No. 1 New England Patriots
All-time Divisional Round: Titans 4-8, Patriots 14-6
Strange but true:
This game will feature the largest age gap between starting QBs (Brady 40,
Mariota 24) in NFL postseason history (Elias).
The ultimate David-Goliath matchup. It marks just the third
playoff game for the Titans since 2008; it will be the Patriots 17th. Worse
yet, New England has won the past six meetings between the two, winning the
last three by a combined margin of 126-29.
The Titans finally gave a full workload to RB Derek Henry in
the wild card round and it paid off in a big way: 23 carries, 156 yards and a
TD. They’ll need that and much more to have any chance in Foxboro. And it
starts with the man behind center. Going up against the number one offense in
the league, it will be up to Mariota to keep pace. A tall task for a QB making
just his second career playoff start. One sliver of hope for Titans fans:
having a mobile QB. Outside of the division this season, the Patriots were 1-2
against such QB’s (Alex Smith, Cam Newton, & Deshaun Watson), giving up an
average of 36 points in those contests. All played at Gillette Stadium. Yes,
those games were early in the season, but for a defense that ranked 29th
in total yards surrendered, the Pats are not invincible. And Mariota has the
tools to be successful given the right opportunities. After all, he even has
the rare ability to catch his own passes for touchdowns.
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| Henry and the Titans are hoping to duplicate last week's performance (Titans.com) |
On the other sideline – amid rumors regarding tensions
within the organization (which just happened to timely come afloat before the
playoffs to be used as motivation) – the Patriots are seeking their seventh
consecutive trip to the AFC Championship. And even though Tom Brady has
struggled in December (throwing just 6 touchdowns to 5 interceptions), he should
have no problem picking apart a Titans secondary that surrendered the 25th
most passing yards per game this season.
The Titans style of play actually matches up well. The
Patriots – 9-1 in divisional games at home – just pose too much fire power. Not
to mention, quarterbacks making their first or second career playoff start are
0-7 all-time against New England.
Prediction: Patriots
38, Titans 16
Sunday
No. 3 Jacksonville
Jaguars at No. 2 Pittsburgh Steelers
All-time Divisional Round: Jaguars 2-2, Steelers 16-9
Strange but true:
Only one team has beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh twice within the same
season, including playoffs: the 2007 Jaguars (NFLResearch).
This pits a rematch of a lopsided week 5 regular season tilt
(Jacksonville 30-9). Subsequently, the Steelers ensued to win eight straight
and 10 of their next 11.
Jacksonville continues to impress on the defensive side of
the ball. Coming in having allowed just three points in their wild card win
over the Bills (first postseason win since 2007), the Jags are soaring with
confidence, particularly on defense. Their top ranked pass defense (169.9 YPG)
will once again be put to the test against Pitt’s number three ranked pass
offense (273.8 YPG) – a matchup the Jaguars exposed in the previous meeting (by corralling five interceptions). That is unlikely to happen this time around,
so it will be up to Blake Bortles to lead an offense that has struggled as of
late. In his last two games (against bottom 12 pass defenses), Bortles has
completed a mere 47 percent of his passes (27/57) for 245 yards (122.5 YPG),
one TD and two interceptions. Fournette seems to be slowing down as well,
having failed to reach 70 yards rushing in any of his last three games (58 for
174). Not promising for a team looking to advance to the AFC championship for
the first time since 1999.
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| AB is back in the lineup just in time for a playoff run (usatoday). |
On the Pittsburgh end, it is very reminiscent of last year. In
the 2016 regular season, the Steelers got throttled by the Dolphins, 30-15,
surrendering 204 yards (the most they gave up all season) to RB Jay Ajayi. The
black-and-yellow returned the favor in the playoffs, 30-12, holding Ajayi to 33
yards. Enter 2017, and it looks like deja vu, as the Pitt defense gave up 181
yards to Jags rookie Leonard Fournette (in week 5) – the most rushing yards
they’ve allowed all season to any RB. Yes, the Jaguars are substantially better on
defense (than that Dolphins team), but the point here is that the Steelers (&
HC Mike Tomlin) take these things personal. They will be as motivated as ever
to avenge that week 5 beat down. And it starts behind center, where
Roethlisberger has thrown multiple TD passes in seven consecutive games. To his
avail, he welcomes back Antonio Brown, restoring the league’s most explosive offensive
weaponry.
Pittsburgh is a different beast come January. The Steelers
avenge that ugly October loss.
Prediction: Steelers
24, Jaguars 13
No. 3 New Orleans
Saints at No. 2 Minnesota Vikings
All-time Divisional Round: Saints 2-3, Vikings 9-12
Strange but true: The
Saints rank 2nd in total offense while the Vikings rank 1st
in total defense. Since 1990, a top 2 total offense has faced a top 2 total
defense in the playoffs seven times. Six of those seven (including the last
three) were won by the defense (NFL.com).
A true matchup of offense vs. defense. For instance, Mark
Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined for the most scrimmage yards (3,094) and
touchdowns (25) of any teammate RB duo in the NFL this season. No team allowed
fewer scrimmage yards (1,584) or scrimmage touchdowns (8, tied) to running
backs this season than the Minnesota Vikings (NFL).
Against Carolina, Sean Payton seemed to turn back the clock
to the days of old, going pass-heavy. Drew Brees responded by dissecting the Panthers
defense to the tune of 376 yards (2nd most he’s thrown for all
season). It was a far cry from the usual script, as Alvin Kamara and Mark
Ingram combined for just 45 yards rushing on 19 attempts. Fortunately, it led
to a win. Come Sunday, it will be interesting to see the game plan as the
Saints go on the road in a hostile environment to face the number one ranked
defense. Finding balance in the run game will be important, especially against
a superior secondary (than what they saw in the wild card round).
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| The Vikings are trying to become the first team ever to play a Super Bowl at home (VikingsTwitter). |
Minnesota enters this game as arguably the most complete
team in the NFL. Behind a ferocious front seven (led by Anthony Barr and
Everson Griffen), a shutdown corner (Xavier Rhodes) and the most dynamic safety
tandem in the league (Harrison Smith & Andrew Sendejo), it’s hard to find a
weakness across the board on defense. On the other side of the ball, the
offense has been consistent all season behind the career year from Case Keenum.
Under the direction of OC Pat Shurmur, the six-year signal caller has been
spectacular, ranking 2nd in completion percentage (67.6) and 7th
in QB rating. His supporting cast is easily the most underrated in the league. RBs
Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon rival the duo they’ll be up against on
Sunday, while WRs Adam Thielen (5th in receiving yards) and Stefon
Diggs (4th in receiving TDs) provide big-time play-making ability. The
biggest question will be how Keenum responds in his first career playoff start against one of the all-time greats.
Would there be a better story than a journeyman QB leading a
team that has never won a Super Bowl to the title? Not to mention, on their
home turf? The Vikings take one step closer.
Prediction: Vikings 27,
Saints 23
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