Super Bowl LII: History Awaits

Experience vs. inexperience. A first-timer making just his fourth career playoff start vs. an eight-timer making his 37^th (eighth SB start). A backup-turned-starter vs. a legend. A team looking for its first title in franchise history vs. a team looking to make history with its sixth (which would tie Pittsburgh for most all-time). Eagles vs. Patriots. Part two. Winner take all – to reach the pinnacle of professional football.   

(NFL.com)

What does history say?

This will be the sixth Super Bowl rematch (Patriots defeated Eagles in SB XXXIX). In the last three rematches (and four of the last five), the team that won the first meeting also won the second.

Defense over offense? In each of the last five Super Bowls, the team with the higher ranked total offense has lost (ATL, CAR, SEA, DEN, and SF). Meanwhile, the team with the higher ranked total defense has won three of the last five (two consecutive). The Patriots enter with the higher ranked offense (#1), while the Eagles enter with the higher ranked defense (#4).

Favorite or Underdog? The underdog has won seven of the last ten Super Bowls, including five out of the last six (last year broke the streak). The Patriots are favored once again (1-2 in the last three in which they were favored).  

Uniforms? Oddly enough, a factor that has increasingly become a predictor over the years is uniforms. 12 out of the last 13 (each of the last six) Super Bowl winners have worn white jerseys (including the Pats previous victory over the Eagles). New England will once again don the whites. In the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots are 3-0 in the SB when wearing white tops.

Can Brady be the first? No player to lead the NFL in passing yards has ever won the Super Bowl (0-5) that same season (NFLResearch). Tom Brady led the league in passing yards this season (4,577). In fact, the last time he went to the Super Bowl after accomplishing that feat, he lost (Giants 2007).

The Matchup

History will be made on Sunday with a first title or a sixth (minneapolis.org). 

The Favorite: New England Patriots

The continuity is astounding. The success is unbelievable. And here they are again for a shot at yet another Super Bowl. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have defied the odds of turnover in today's game, earning the most playoff wins by any head coach/quarterback combination in NFL history (27) - 13 more than the next closest tandem (NFL). On Sunday, they make their eighth appearance in the big game with a shot at history... a sixth Lombardi. 

The offense continues to hum behind #12 - even at his old age - ranking second in points (28.6 PPG) and first in yards (394.2 YPG). With no elite talent (aside from Gronk), it’s an offense that finds success from every component doing its job, with Brady often finding a mismatch and exploiting it (i.e. Danny Amendola against the Jaguars). 

Going up against the number one rush defense (79.2 YPG) and arguably the best defensive line in football, the Pats will more than likely turn to the quick passing game and no-huddle offense to minimize the pass rush (and keep the Eagles from subbing). Moreover, Brady loves utilizing his running backs out of the backfield (White/Lewis/Burkhead caught a league-best nine TD passes this season). Philly’s D allowed opposing RBs to score five TDs on receptions, tied for second most in the NFL (ESPN) – meaning a heavy dose of flooding the backs with passes could be in store. And if the Eagles decide to bring pressure? Brady is even better, boasting the third-best QBR against the blitz this season.

If there’s any weakness in New England, it’s the defense. The Pats rank 29^th in yards allowed (366) and 24^th in defensive efficiency – giving up the second-most yards per play. Remarkably, the unit ranks fifth in scoring defense (18.5 PPG) thanks to stiffening inside the red zone and holding its opponents to FGs (over TDs). The Eagles, who rank ninth in offensive efficiency, boast a group of great athletes – with no true standout – so defending them will be a tall task (certainly the toughest of the playoffs). It starts up front where the Patriots ranked seventh in sacks (42) in the regular season (recorded eight in the Divisional Round). Expect the defense to take away the running game and key in on QB Nick Foles. Getting pressure will be key in slowing the Philly offense, as Foles ranks 32^nd in QBR and 42^nd in yards per play when the heat is on (ESPN). 

Ultimately, regardless of how the defense performs, one thing is certain: when you have Brady in your back pocket, it’s easier to take chances and get away with mistakes.

The Underdog: Philadelphia Eagles

Underdog at home against a #6 seed? Underdog at home a week later against the Vikings? The beat goes on for the underrated Eagles as they continue to silence the doubters in the wake of [superstar-in-the-making] Carson Wentz’ absence. Up next? The modern era dynasty and five-time champions. In other words, another mountain to climb. If not, Mt. Everest. 

Riding the coattails of backup QB Nick Foles, the Philly offense hit its stride in the NFC championship. They’ll need to duplicate that effort in order to take down the gold standard. A big reason for the success: the Run-Pass Option. On such plays, Foles is completing an absurd 93.8 percent of his passes with a QBR of 96.6 (NFL). It could be a game-changer come Sunday, as the Patriots allowed 5.6 yards per play on RPOs this season - fifth most in the NFL. 

Foles' career compares quite well to his superstar teammate (Sportscenter). 

Ranking seventh in total offense (365.8 YPG) and third in points per game (28.6), the Eagles offense is heating up – averaging 395 yards and 26.5 points in the postseason (including 456 yards against the number one ranked defense). It begins up front, where an athletic offensive line (two first team All-Pros) leads the way (for Jay Ajayi-LeGarrette Blount) with its third-ranked rushing attack (132.2 YPG). The Patriots – who allowed a whopping 4.71 yards per carry in the regular season (3.5 in the playoffs) – will have its work cut out for them as Ajayi averaged 5.8 YPC since coming over in a trade from Miami (3.9 in the postseason). 

An X-factor could be third-string RB Corey Clement, particularly in the passing game -- where the Pats have struggled against shifty RBs on the outside. In the end, the most important key for the Eagles will be staying aggressive – not letting the moment get too big. Something HC Doug Pederson has successfully illustrated all season long (up to this point).  

Meanwhile, the defense has been stellar, picking up right where it left off in the regular season. Through two postseason games, the unit has allowed just 17 points (8.5 per). Much like the offense, it starts with the hog mollies up front. The Eagles D-line is loaded with depth - led the league with 271 QB pressures - hurrying the opposition on 41 percent of drop-backs in the regular season (PFF). 

In strolls one of the all-time greats behind center (and an offense with a bevy of options) – a whole new beast for a defense looking to impose its will. Something to keep in mind: in the Patriots two SB losses to the Giants, the defensive front generated pressure on over 40 percent of Brady’s drop-backs. The Eagles have the pieces, but can they execute on the biggest stage? Especially in the fourth quarter with the game on the line? Time will tell. 

So... how can a team like the Eagles do something so few have been able to accomplish?

The Blueprint to beating the Patriots:

1. Run the ball! New England is 9-9 when surrendering 25+ carries to the opposition in the postseason, while the Eagles are 14-1 when tallying 25+ rushes this season.  

2. Score 25 points. The Patriots are 5-6 when allowing the opposition to score 25+ in the playoffs. The Eagles averaged 28.6 in the regular season (26.5 in the postseason) and are 13-0 when reaching that plateau this season.  

3. Win the turnover battle. In the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots are a mediocre 10-9 when they lose the TO battle in the postseason.

4. Keep New England under 20. Easier said than done. But the Pats are 2-7 when held under 20 points. The Eagles are 8-1 when holding their opponent under 20 this season (lone loss was when they rested starters in finale).

5. Sack the QB. The Patriots are 4-4 when Brady goes down three or more times. Philly is 6-1 this season when recording three or more sacks.

Obviously accomplishing all of these sounds nearly impossible. Sounds more like executing a perfect game. But sometimes that's what it takes to knock off a juggernaut. Completing 1 and 2 is a must, as it would mean keeping #12 on the sidelines and scoring touchdowns over field goals. Not surprisingly, that's when the Eagles have had the most success this season.

Prediction

Everyone is on the Patriots. And how could you blame them? After all, entering SB LII, Tom Brady has played in seven Super Bowls in his career, as many as the entire Eagles roster combined (NFLResearch). That alone makes them a heavy favorite. But there’s just something about being an underdog in the big game. And keep this in mind: only two QBs have started in a Super Bowl after having fewer regular season starts than Nick Foles (3) - Redskins Doug Williams (1987) and Giants Jeff Hostetler (1990) who both started two games in the regular season (NFL)… Both won the Super Bowl… Both defeated Hall of Fame QBs -- John Elway and Jim Kelly. 

Foles and the Eagles shock the world, capturing the franchise’s first Lombardi. Fly, Eagles, Fly! Eagles 31, Patriots 30

NFL Championship Sunday: A Chance at History

Four teams. Only two tickets to Minneapolis. One thing is certain: At least one team will have a shot at hoisting the Lombardi for the first time in franchise history (Jaguars, Vikings and Eagles). And the Vikings? They can become the first team in league history to play in a Super Bowl at home. Not your everyday scenario.

One of the most immaculate NFL stadiums awaits the winners (usbankstadium.com). Will the Vikings make history?

It has long been the notion that a franchise signal caller is the backbone to making a Super Bowl run. And while few could argue such an idea, three of the four remaining teams may suggest a new theory: defense trumps all. This weekend will mark the first time since the 1970 merger that all four teams in the conference championship games enter with a Top 5 scoring defense from the regular season (NFL.com):

1.) Vikings (15.8 PPG)

2.) Jaguars (16.8 PPG)

4.) Eagles (18.4 PPG)

5.) Patriots (18.5 PPG)

More remarkably, three of the four teams didn’t even record winning seasons in 2016 (Jaguars 3-13, Eagles 7-9, and Vikings 8-8). Not to mention, their QBs sport a combined five playoff starts behind center. It’s rarefied territory. Something the Patriots can only be smiling at.

If history is any indication, it favors the one’s: in the last five postseasons, number one seeds are 7-0 on championship Sunday.

So with that, let's get to it. 

(NFL.com)

No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 1 New England Patriots

All-time AFC Championship: Jaguars 0-2, Patriots 9-4

Head-to-head in postseason: Patriots lead 3-1

Talk about a historical mismatch of epic proportions. Since the Jaguars entered the NFL in 1995, they are 1-10 (.091) against the Patriots (including playoffs) – the worst winning percentage of any team vs. one opponent (NFL). A matchup of a team that has never reached the Super Bowl against a team seeking its tenth trip. Even more, the Patriots are making their seventh consecutive AFC Championship appearance and riding a seven-game playoff win streak at home with an average margin of victory of 18.3 points in those games (usatoday). In the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots are 10-0 in the playoffs against AFC South teams in Foxboro. On paper, another walk in the park for New England.

Historical notes aside, this matchup pits two teams that ranked in the top five in both scoring offense and scoring defense in the regular season. The Jaguars ranked second in scoring defense (16.8) and fifth in scoring offense (26.1 PPG) while the Patriots were the opposite: second in scoring offense (28.6 PPG) and fifth in scoring defense (18.5).

The Jags will need a heavy dose of Fournette in order to advance (SBNation).

Jaguars will win if: they win the turnover battle & run the ball 25+ times.

Aside from getting pressure on Brady, the recipe for the Jags is simple: run the football and don’t turn the ball over. New England is a sub-par 8-9 in the playoffs when they surrender 25 or more carries to its opponent. In fact, in each of the Pats three regular season losses, their opposition tallied at least 25 rushes (and over 100 yards). Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 12-4 (including playoffs) this season when reaching that plateau, including 4-0 when Fournette alone reaches 25, and 5-1 when he rushes for 100 yards or more. 

The difficulty here is that the Patriots are known for taking away the opposition’s best weapon – in this case Fournette – meaning this game will surely be in the hands of Blake Bortles. Not a sight most Jags fans want to see. Jacksonville is 8-0 (including playoffs) this season when Bortles doesn’t turn the ball over and 4-6 when he has at least one turnover. All the more reason, that sticking to the ground game is paramount, even if it amounts to little success early. It shortens the game and allows the Jags suffocating defense to unleash. Oh yeah, and keep this in mind: the Patriots are 18-0 when the opposition fails to reach 25 carries.

Patriots will win if: they keep on keeping on (play disciplined football).

In the divisional round, the Patriots went to the hurry-up offense, gashing the overwhelmed Titans to the tune of 438 yards (337 passing) on 80 offensive snaps (53 pass attempts). Not surprisingly, Brady relied on the short passing game, as 20 of his 35 completions went to his running backs or tight ends, and 11 went to Amendola in the slot. A similar philosophy should be tougher to execute against the Jaguars number one ranked pass defense. 

Which means a heavy dose of the running game (441 yards on 103 carries in their last three) could be in store, as the Jags surrendered 116.3 rushing yards per game (21^st) in the regular season (106.5 per game so far in the postseason). In fact, the Patriots are 8-0 when RB Dion Lewis tallies 100+ scrimmage yards. Expect him to be a staple on Sunday. Another key will be getting a lead early. It will not only cause the inconsistent Bortles to force the issue, but also take the Jaguars strength – running the football – out of the game plan.

Prediction

The young and confident Jags are peaking at the right time behind a ferocious defense - mimicking the Seahawks of old. But it's hard envisioning Bortles going three straight games without a turnover. The Patriots experience will be too much. 

Patriots 31, Jaguars 16

   

(NFL.com)

No. 2 Minnesota Vikings at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles

All-time NFC Championship: Vikings 4-5, Eagles 2-4

Head-to-head in postseason: Eagles lead 3-0

Case Keenum vs. Nick Foles. Former teammates. Backups forced into starting roles. Just like everyone scripted. It marks the first time since at least 1970 that two quarterbacks will meet in the conference championship after neither QB started in Week 1 of that season (NFL). 

The winner will have a shot at breaking their teams’ long-standing SB droughts, as the Vikings and Eagles are the only two franchises to have a winning record in the Super Bowl era but no Super Bowl victories (NFL). They also boast the most playoff wins of any team in that span without a title (Vikings 20, Eagles 16). It has been even worse for Minnesota, who is 0-5 in its last five conference championship games.

Keenum is hoping to bring the Vikes home to SB LII (athlonsports.com).

Vikings will win if: they win the battle of the trenches & force a turnover.

This will be the toughest defensive front the Vikings have seen all season. Ranked number one in rush defense (79.2 YPG), the Eagles held the Falcons to 86 yards on the ground. Minnesota often leans on its 7th-ranked rushing attack (122.3 YPG) to take control of games, meaning Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon (27 carries for 84 yards against Saints) will be pivotal in opening up the passing game. More importantly, the O-line will need to stand its ground more effectively than it did last weekend. In the divisional round, Keenum went 3-of-11 with 1 INT and a passer rating of 5.1 against pressure (NFL). The Eagles led the NFL with 271 QB pressures this season. In what is sure to be poor conditions, controlling the line of scrimmage will be huge. 

On the other side, Minnesota needs to make Philadelphia one-dimensional by forcing Foles to beat them. In the four games since Wentz’s injury, the Eagles have averaged 277.5 total YPG. If applied over the full 2017 season, that would give them the NFL’s worst total offense (NFL). Enter Minnesota, who boasts the number one ranked defense (from the regular season), who just held the dynamic duo of Alvin Kamara & Mark Ingram to 68 yards rushing on 21 attempts. Shutting down the Eagles backfield will force the Eagles to turn to the passing game where Foles has struggled. In all, the Vikings are 10-1 this season (including playoffs) when forcing a turnover and 12-1 when rushing for at least 100 yards. Both will be key come Sunday. 

Eagles will win if: they run the ball 30+ times and win third down.

Going up against the league’s number one ranked defense won’t be easy. Especially with a back-up QB. So riding their third-ranked rushing attack (132.2 YPG) is the best recipe for success. Even against the Vikings second-ranked rush defense (83.6 YPG). In each of Minnesota’s losses this season, the opponent rushed for at least 100 yards on 30 or more attempts. 

The Eagles, behind one of the best offensive lines in football (All-Pro Center Jason Kelce, Pro Bowl RG Brandon Brooks, and All-Pro LT Lane Johnson) and a bruising set of backs (Jay Ajayi & LeGarrette Blount) are 10-0 this season when rushing the ball 30 or more times (4-3 when failing to reach 30). Reaching that plateau coupled with converting on third down will be important. The Vikings defense ranks first in third-down defense, allowing a mere 25 percent conversion rate. After converting just 6-of-13 (46%) in the divisional round, the Eagles need to find ways to extend drives in order to have a chance.

Prediction

The Eagles are 8-1 (8-0 with full unit - rested some starters Week 17) at home this season. But there isn’t a more complete team than the one in Minnesota. And after last week’s ‘Minneapolis Miracle’, this team seems destined to be the first team ever to host a Super Bowl. 

Vikings 17, Eagles 16

2018 NFL Divisional Round Preview: Experience (or lack there of) Takes Center Stage

And then there were eight. After an entertaining wild card weekend, the match-ups are set for an intriguing divisional round. One that is wildly lopsided in playoff experience (behind center).

Career playoff starts by the eight starting QBs in the second round (by matchup):

Nick Foles (1) vs. Matt Ryan (9)

Marcus Mariota (1) vs. Tom Brady (34)   

Blake Bortles (1) vs. Ben Roethlisberger (20)

Case Keenum (0) vs. Drew Brees (12)

Not surprisingly, three of the four teams led by the inexperienced signal caller are underdogs (Keenum & the Vikings are favored). 

Just one of the many story-lines heading into another football filled weekend. 

Game Previews

For what it's worth: in four out of the last five postseasons, at least one road team has advanced to Championship weekend (last season saw two).

Saturday

No. 6 Atlanta Falcons at No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles

All-time Divisional Round: Falcons 4-5, Eagles 7-6

Strange but true: Since 1998, 10 quarterbacks have started a playoff game with 3-or-fewer starts in that regular season (Nick Foles will be the 11^th). Those QBs combined to go 0-10 in the playoffs (NFL.com).

It’s the battle of the birds, with one limping and the other flying high.

Fresh off a dominating performance against the league’s highest scoring offense (26-13), the Falcons look to continue the momentum when they travel to Philadelphia. Another tall task awaits, as the Eagles offense ranked third in both rushing (132.2 YPG) and scoring (28.6 PPG) in the regular season. And while the Atlanta offense has yet to reach its full potential (at least compared to last season), the defense has been leading the charge – allowing just 23 points in its last two games while holding opposing QB’s to a paltry 48% completion percentage (38/79). The offense has turned into more of a ground-and-pound attack which will be a challenge on the road against the league’s number one rush defense (79.2 YPG). Ultimately, it comes down to two metrics to determine the Falcons success: time of possession & scoring 20 points. The Dirty Birds are 9-1 when possessing the ball more than the opposition and 11-0 when reaching the 20-point plateau.

Matty Ice has a QB rating of 100+ in each of his last five playoff games (sportingnews.com)

The Eagles enter this matchup on the back of a middling QB who has yet to find his footing. Ever since losing MVP candidate Carson Wentz (ACL), Philly’s explosiveness & offensive production have plummeted behind QB Nick Foles. In his last two games (both at home), the six-year signal caller completed just 46.9 percent of his passes with one TD and two INTs. It won’t get any easier against a suffocating Falcons secondary. Nonetheless, the Eagles are predicated on an old-school type of football – winning the battle of the trenches – ranking first in rush defense and third in rush offense. Meaning one thing: with Foles behind center, the recipe for success will surely be the same. Wearing the Falcons down on the ground with the Ajayi-Blount-Clement combination (on what is bound to be frigid conditions) will be a key indicator of success for the Eagles.

With two top-10 defenses, this game could come down to the passing game and special teams. Advantage, Falcons.

Prediction: Falcons 23, Eagles 17    

No. 5 Tennessee Titans at No. 1 New England Patriots

All-time Divisional Round: Titans 4-8, Patriots 14-6

Strange but true: This game will feature the largest age gap between starting QBs (Brady 40, Mariota 24) in NFL postseason history (Elias).

The ultimate David-Goliath matchup. It marks just the third playoff game for the Titans since 2008; it will be the Patriots 17th. Worse yet, New England has won the past six meetings between the two, winning the last three by a combined margin of 126-29. 

The Titans finally gave a full workload to RB Derek Henry in the wild card round and it paid off in a big way: 23 carries, 156 yards and a TD. They’ll need that and much more to have any chance in Foxboro. And it starts with the man behind center. Going up against the number one offense in the league, it will be up to Mariota to keep pace. A tall task for a QB making just his second career playoff start. One sliver of hope for Titans fans: having a mobile QB. Outside of the division this season, the Patriots were 1-2 against such QB’s (Alex Smith, Cam Newton, & Deshaun Watson), giving up an average of 36 points in those contests. All played at Gillette Stadium. Yes, those games were early in the season, but for a defense that ranked 29^th in total yards surrendered, the Pats are not invincible. And Mariota has the tools to be successful given the right opportunities. After all, he even has the rare ability to catch his own passes for touchdowns.  

Henry and the Titans are hoping to duplicate last week's performance (Titans.com)

On the other sideline – amid rumors regarding tensions within the organization (which just happened to timely come afloat before the playoffs to be used as motivation) – the Patriots are seeking their seventh consecutive trip to the AFC Championship. And even though Tom Brady has struggled in December (throwing just 6 touchdowns to 5 interceptions), he should have no problem picking apart a Titans secondary that surrendered the 25^th most passing yards per game this season.

The Titans style of play actually matches up well. The Patriots – 9-1 in divisional games at home – just pose too much fire power. Not to mention, quarterbacks making their first or second career playoff start are 0-7 all-time against New England.  

Prediction: Patriots 38, Titans 16

Sunday

No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 2 Pittsburgh Steelers

All-time Divisional Round: Jaguars 2-2, Steelers 16-9

Strange but true: Only one team has beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh twice within the same season, including playoffs: the 2007 Jaguars (NFLResearch).

This pits a rematch of a lopsided week 5 regular season tilt (Jacksonville 30-9). Subsequently, the Steelers ensued to win eight straight and 10 of their next 11.

Jacksonville continues to impress on the defensive side of the ball. Coming in having allowed just three points in their wild card win over the Bills (first postseason win since 2007), the Jags are soaring with confidence, particularly on defense. Their top ranked pass defense (169.9 YPG) will once again be put to the test against Pitt’s number three ranked pass offense (273.8 YPG) – a matchup the Jaguars exposed in the previous meeting (by corralling five interceptions). That is unlikely to happen this time around, so it will be up to Blake Bortles to lead an offense that has struggled as of late. In his last two games (against bottom 12 pass defenses), Bortles has completed a mere 47 percent of his passes (27/57) for 245 yards (122.5 YPG), one TD and two interceptions. Fournette seems to be slowing down as well, having failed to reach 70 yards rushing in any of his last three games (58 for 174). Not promising for a team looking to advance to the AFC championship for the first time since 1999.  

AB is back in the lineup just in time for a playoff run (usatoday). 

On the Pittsburgh end, it is very reminiscent of last year. In the 2016 regular season, the Steelers got throttled by the Dolphins, 30-15, surrendering 204 yards (the most they gave up all season) to RB Jay Ajayi. The black-and-yellow returned the favor in the playoffs, 30-12, holding Ajayi to 33 yards. Enter 2017, and it looks like deja vu, as the Pitt defense gave up 181 yards to Jags rookie Leonard Fournette (in week 5) – the most rushing yards they’ve allowed all season to any RB. Yes, the Jaguars are substantially better on defense (than that Dolphins team), but the point here is that the Steelers (& HC Mike Tomlin) take these things personal. They will be as motivated as ever to avenge that week 5 beat down. And it starts behind center, where Roethlisberger has thrown multiple TD passes in seven consecutive games. To his avail, he welcomes back Antonio Brown, restoring the league’s most explosive offensive weaponry.

Pittsburgh is a different beast come January. The Steelers avenge that ugly October loss.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Jaguars 13

No. 3 New Orleans Saints at No. 2 Minnesota Vikings

All-time Divisional Round: Saints 2-3, Vikings 9-12

Strange but true: The Saints rank 2^nd in total offense while the Vikings rank 1^st in total defense. Since 1990, a top 2 total offense has faced a top 2 total defense in the playoffs seven times. Six of those seven (including the last three) were won by the defense (NFL.com).

A true matchup of offense vs. defense. For instance, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined for the most scrimmage yards (3,094) and touchdowns (25) of any teammate RB duo in the NFL this season. No team allowed fewer scrimmage yards (1,584) or scrimmage touchdowns (8, tied) to running backs this season than the Minnesota Vikings (NFL).

Against Carolina, Sean Payton seemed to turn back the clock to the days of old, going pass-heavy. Drew Brees responded by dissecting the Panthers defense to the tune of 376 yards (2^nd most he’s thrown for all season). It was a far cry from the usual script, as Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combined for just 45 yards rushing on 19 attempts. Fortunately, it led to a win. Come Sunday, it will be interesting to see the game plan as the Saints go on the road in a hostile environment to face the number one ranked defense. Finding balance in the run game will be important, especially against a superior secondary (than what they saw in the wild card round).

The Vikings are trying to become the first team ever to play a Super Bowl at home (VikingsTwitter). 

Minnesota enters this game as arguably the most complete team in the NFL. Behind a ferocious front seven (led by Anthony Barr and Everson Griffen), a shutdown corner (Xavier Rhodes) and the most dynamic safety tandem in the league (Harrison Smith & Andrew Sendejo), it’s hard to find a weakness across the board on defense. On the other side of the ball, the offense has been consistent all season behind the career year from Case Keenum. Under the direction of OC Pat Shurmur, the six-year signal caller has been spectacular, ranking 2^nd in completion percentage (67.6) and 7^th in QB rating. His supporting cast is easily the most underrated in the league. RBs Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon rival the duo they’ll be up against on Sunday, while WRs Adam Thielen (5^th in receiving yards) and Stefon Diggs (4^th in receiving TDs) provide big-time play-making ability. The biggest question will be how Keenum responds in his first career playoff start against one of the all-time greats.

Would there be a better story than a journeyman QB leading a team that has never won a Super Bowl to the title? Not to mention, on their home turf? The Vikings take one step closer.

Prediction: Vikings 27, Saints 23

   

2018 NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview

January football has arrived. And if the 2017 regular season was any indication, the postseason is about to be wild. 

The NFL playoff picture has seen a seismic shift from a season ago as eight new teams enter the postseason field, tying 2003 for the most turnover in the current 12-team format (ESPN). And it all starts this weekend, as six of the eight will be in action. 

Does home field matter? In four out of the last five seasons, at least one away team has won a game in the Wild Card Round. In 2015, all four road teams advanced, while last season saw every home team come away victorious. Of this year's home teams, the Rams are the only team that didn't have much success as hosts in the regular season (4-4). The Chiefs and Jaguars were 6-2, while the Saints were 7-1 (7 straight). Of the away teams, the Bills & Titans were 3-5 on the road, while the Falcons and Panthers were a more promising 5-3.

(NFL.com)

Fun Fact: Wild Card Weekend will feature four rookie RB’s who tallied over 1,000 yards from scrimmage – Chiefs’ Kareem Hunt (1,782), Saints’ Alvin Kamara (1,554), Jaguars’ Leonard Fournette (1,342), and Panthers’ Christian McCaffrey (1,086).

Game Previews

Saturday

No. 5 Tennessee Titans (9-7) at No. 4 Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

All-time Wild Card Round: Titans 7-5, Chiefs 3-7

Strange but true: The Chiefs have the second-worst postseason win percentage (.346) in NFL history (9-17).

Tennessee is making its first postseason appearance since 2008 and seeking its first win since 2003. They enter the field losing three out of their last four and have yet to find an identity (or creativity) on offense. A season after ranking third in rushing (136 YPG), the Titans have plummeted to 15^th (114.6) in 2017, including 23^rd in total offense. On the flip side, the defense has been stout against the run, allowing just 88.8 yards per game (4^th), but susceptible against the pass -- ranking 25^th (239.3). They’ll need to contain the Chiefs playmakers and establish offensive consistency to steal a win on the road.

After orchestrating a career year, Smith is hoping to lead the Chiefs on a deep playoff run (sbnation).

Kansas City enters this game on the banks of a roller-coaster season. After starting 5-0, the Chiefs lost six of their next 7, before winning four consecutive to wrap up the AFC West. Behind the arm - and career year - of QB Alex Smith (tops in the league with 104.7 passer rating) & legs of surprise rookie RB sensation Kareem Hunt (the league leader in rushing), the Chiefs ranked fifth in total offense (7^th in passing & 9^th in rushing). Add in the dynamic threats of TE Travis Kelce (1^st in Rec, 2^nd in yards and TD among TE) and WR Tyreek Hill (7^th in receiving yards) and this is one of the more difficult offenses to defend. On the other hand however, the defense has struggled (28^th) throughout the course of the season. They’ve made up for it with 26 takeaways (12 in their last four) - including a +15 turnover margin (ranked 2^nd). 

For Tennessee to have a chance, they’ll have to open up the playbook and go stride for stride with a Kansas City team that is riding high (and at home). It’s hard to see such a scenario.

Prediction: Kansas City 27, Tennessee 20

No. 6 Atlanta Falcons (10-6) at No. 3 Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

All-time Wild Card Round: Falcons 3-4, Rams 3-5

Strange but true: HC Sean McVay wasn’t even born the last time the Rams hosted a playoff game in Los Angeles (January 4, 1986). In fact, only two players on the roster were born at the time: center John Sullivan & LT Andrew Whitworth (NFLResearch).

Under the lights at the Coliseum. There isn’t a better setup all weekend as the defending NFC Champions travel to LA to take on the league’s highest scoring offense (29.9 PPG). For what it's worth, in each of the last two seasons, the team to lead the league in scoring (Carolina, Atlanta) has made it to the Super Bowl. 

Making their second consecutive playoff appearance (only NFC returnee), Atlanta is hoping to ignite an underwhelming offense. For whatever reason, they’ve been unable to sustain any consistency, particularly in scoring, averaging just 22.1 PPG (compared to a league best 33.8 last season). They’ll need to find some rhythm in order to keep pace with the league’s highest scoring offense. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have quietly put together a strong defense (9^th in total yards, 8^th in points allowed) especially as of late, holding their final six opponents to an average of 17.5 PPG (4-2 in those games). Ultimately, the objective in this game: score 20 points. The Dirty Birds are 10-0 when scoring 20 or more points this season, and 0-6 when failing to reach that plateau.

Matt Ryan and co. are hoping to shake the ghosts of last season's SB loss (AtlantaFalcons.com).

The Rams are making their first appearance since 2004 (first as LA since 1989)! They bring with it the youngest coach in the league (McVay) and just four players on the roster with playoff experience. Nonetheless, the turnaround has been astounding, as QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley have led an offensive resurgence – going from worst to first in points per game from last season to this season (14 to 29.9), just the second team in NFL history to do so (1965 49ers). Gurley – the third player in league history to tally at least 2,000 scrimmage yards, 10 rushing TD’s, and more than 5 receiving scores (NFL) – will have to make his presence known in order for the Rams to advance. The defense (under Wade Phillips) has improved as the season has progressed. Despite ranking 19^th in total defense, the Rams have totaled 28 takeaways (5^th), which will be a key factor come Saturday.  

In a matchup of teams with explosive playmakers, this has the potential to be the highest scoring game on the slate. In the end, the experience of the Falcons will be too much for the youthful Rams. Cue the 20-point unbeaten streak.  

Prediction: Atlanta 30, Los Angeles 24

Sunday

No. 6 Buffalo Bills (9-7) at No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

All-time Wild Card Round: Bills 3-3, Jaguars 3-2

Strange but true: Only four teams in the Super Bowl era have made the playoffs with a worse point differential than the 2017 Bills (-57). All four of them won a game in the playoffs (NFL).

A matchup of two postseason newcomers. And a coach – Doug Marrone – that abandoned ship in Buffalo (by opting out of his contract two years ago) only to be the head man in Jacksonville. 

Buffalo comes in having broken the longest active playoff drought in American (pro) sports, making its first appearance since 1999. In order to avoid a one-and-done scenario, they’ll have to find success against one of the best defenses in the league. A tall task for an offense that ranks 29^th in total offense and 22^nd in scoring (18.9). Leaning on their 6^th ranked ground attack (126.1 YPG) is important, as the Jags have surrendered 116.3 rushing yards per game (21st). QB Tyrod Taylor will have to extend drives with his legs in order to have a chance in this one.

Behind a suffocating defense (2nd in total D, sacks, and scoring D), the Jags are out to silence the doubters (Yahoo sports).

Jacksonville is making its first appearance since 2007. They’ve done it by dominating the trenches, boasting the number one rushing offense (141.4 YPG) and tallying the second most sacks (55) in the league. On paper, that script should continue, as the Jaguars welcome the 29^th ranked rush defense (124.6) and an offense that has surrendered 47 sacks (7^th most in the league). But as we’ve seen time and time again, the success begins and ends with QB Blake Bortles. He’ll have to be smart (& effective) to secure the Jags first playoff win in ten years.

Ultimately, the Bills chances diminish if LeSean McCoy isn't fully healthy (ankle injury). But even with him available, the Jags stifling defense (2^nd in the league) and top rushing attack should be too much.  

Prediction: Jacksonville 20, Buffalo 10

No. 5 Carolina Panthers (11-5) at No. 4 New Orleans Saints (11-5)

All-time Wild Card Round: Panthers 3-0, Saints 3-5

Strange but true: Since 2011, Cam Newton’s 58.5 completion percentage ranks last in the NFL (min. 1,500 attempts). In that same span, Drew Brees has completed a league best 68.8 percent of his passes (NFLResearch).

As if two meetings weren’t enough, the final game on the slate brings a third matchup between NFC South rivals. The Saints dominated the season’s previous meetings (34-13 in Carolina & 31-21 at home).  

Two seasons removed from a Super Bowl appearance, Carolina returns (after a one-year hiatus). Super Cam is hoping for a different result this time around. The playoffs haven’t quite brought out his best however. Despite a 3-3 postseason record (and a SB appearance), Newton has completed just 59.8 percent of his passes with a TD-INT ratio of 8-7. In a matchup against a high-powered Saints offense (28 PPG), he’ll have to be much better. Per usual, the key for the Panthers comes down to the trenches: control the football with the running game & contain Sean Payton's two-headed backfield. Something few have been able to accomplish. 

Ingram & Kamara are leading an explosive offensive attack in the Big Easy (nola.com).

The Saints are making their first appearance since 2013 headed by a dynamic RB duo & a future HOF QB. Alvin Kamara (1,554) and Mark Ingram (1,540) - the first running back teammates in NFL history to each record at least 1,500 yards from scrimmage in the same season (NFL) - spearhead the league's number two ranked offense. Containing them is hard enough. Then, there is QB Drew Brees, who completed an NFL record 72 percent of his passes this season. He’s even better on the bigger stage, as no QB in the Super Bowl era has averaged more passing yards per game (321.3) in the playoffs (NFL). Digging deeper, Brees’ favorite target – WR Michael Thomas – ranked 3rd in catches (104) and 6th in yards (1,245). A tall task for any team to stop, let alone contain. Even tougher at the Superdome. 

Few things go together better than Drew Brees and the Big Easy. The veteran QB is 4-0 with 10 TD passes and 0 INT in home playoff games with the Saints (NFL). The unbeaten streak continues as they take down the Panthers for a third time this season.  

Prediction: New Orleans 34, Carolina 24