Thursday, January 19, 2017

The Final Four: The Road to Houston Awaits

For the first time in the last four seasons, the Super Bowl will not be a matchup of #1 seeds. Championship weekend has arrived, bringing with it four of the top eight offenses from the regular season. Three of the four teams rank in the top-four all-time in postseason wins (1. PIT 36, 2. GB 34, and 4. NE 30). Better yet, the remaining QB’s have combined to win 7 Super Bowls (Brady 4, Roethlisberger 2, Rodgers 1) – the most on any Championship weekend since the 1970 merger (ESPN Stats & Info). The one without a ring? He's playing just as well if not better than the other three. This very well might be the greatest matchup of quarterbacks ever in this round.

         
Green Bay (4) at Atlanta (2)
Head-to-head postseason: Green Bay leads 2-1


NFC Championship all-time: Green Bay 5-3, Atlanta 1-2
Saving the best for last. The last game ever at the Georgia Dome will feature two of the highest scoring teams in the league – Atlanta 1st (33.8/gm) and Green Bay 4th (27/gm). When these two met in week 8, they combined for 55 points and 700 yards of total offense in a last second thriller. Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan put on a clinic per usual, combining for 7 touchdowns – the last of which was the game-winner from Ryan with seconds left. This time, the encore should live up to the hype as the two MVP frontrunners – who ranked #1 & #2 in TD passes – go head-to-head with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
It’s a similar scenario for the cheese heads. In 2010, the last time these two met in the playoffs, Green Bay was the wildcard going on the road to Atlanta in the Divisional round. Rodgers went off (surprise) for 366 yards and 3 TDs as the Pack dominated 48-21. They went on to win the Super Bowl. Enter 2016 (season) and the Pack are one win away from securing another spot in the title game.
Ever since Green Bay’s signal caller declared “I feel like we can run the table”, the Pack have reeled off eight straight. And as we all know, Rodgers has been the catalyst. It doesn’t matter what this team is dealing with (specifically injuries), as long as Mr. Rodgers is behind center, all is well. Even with virtually no running game – currently consists of a fullback and converted wide receiver – and currently without top target Nelson, he has still led the offense to thirty or more points in six straight. He is simply in a zone, and it’s special to watch. His secret to success must come down to one thing... he’s the only quarterback in the league that sports the original vintage one-buckle chinstrap. On the other side, the defense did just enough last weekend against Dallas, but will need a much more effective plan against the number one scoring attack. Turnovers could be the x-factor.
Meanwhile, under the radar Matt Ryan is enjoying the best season of his credible career. A team that has no shortage of star power, the Falcons have scored at least 33 points in six of their last seven, averaging a ridiculous 36.6 in those contests. Just how explosive is this offense? In the two games without Julio Jones (turf toe), the Falcons scored 42 and 41 points, respectively. They’ve recorded 40+ points on five occasions. So come Sunday, there shouldn’t be anything slowing this Falcons team, as Green Bay’s defense ranked in the bottom half in yards and points allowed, and will be without several starters in the secondary. It will be interesting to see if the experience factor comes into play for a relatively young Atlanta team.
Offenses will be on full display in this one. This feels like a game that should come down to the final possession. Last game in the dome... Something says advantage dirty birds.  
Prediction: Atlanta 41, Green Bay 38

    
Pittsburgh (3) at New England (1)
Head-to-head postseason: New England leads 3-1
AFC Championship all-time: Pittsburgh 8-7, New England 8-4
Two legends trying to put a stamp on their storied legacies. Including the playoffs, Tom Brady & Ben Roethlisberger have combined for 342 wins, 839 TD passes, and 121,113 passing (NFL Research). Along the way, a total of six Super Bowls have been captured. This is as good as it gets for a Conference Championship.  
The Patriots have never lost a game with RB Dion Lewis on the field (15-0). Talk about an important piece to the puzzle. Ever since he returned, Lewis has added another weapon to Brady’s arsenal. While the Patriots didn’t look the part in its divisional round win over Houston, they still won by three scores (18). That’s scary. And it was Lewis’s 98-yard kick return that sparked an otherwise dull first half performance (one of three TD’s on the night). This is a team that puts so much pressure on the opposition because they do everything so fundamentally sound.
Brady prides himself on being perfect (and the biggest cry baby in the league) which stems from his preparation and it shows. His numbers were once again off the charts as he led this offense to another top five finish (4th). The defense ranked number one in the league in points allowed (15.6) although half of their games were against the seven worst offenses in the league (LA, SF, CLE, HOU, DEN, and NYJ 2). This will definitely be their biggest test of the year as it will be just the second game all year facing a top-10 quarterback – the first was a loss to Russell Wilson and the Hawks.
The Steelers enter this contest tying the record for most conference championship appearances (16). And unlike the previous two meetings with New England in this round (losses), they’re hoping the third time is a charm, and with good reason. This is one of the more complete offenses from seasons past, as it pairs the most dynamic versatile runner (Bell) with arguably the most complete wide receiver (Brown). Not to mention one of the all-time greats behind center in Big Ben. It’s worth noting that Bell is the only running back in the league that plays every offensive snap every series. It’s remarkable. He never comes off the field which in turn never gives the defense a break. And after recording the most rushing yards ever in a player’s first two postseason games, it will be interesting to see if he can have the same success against Belichick’s game plan.
Winners of nine straight, the black and yellow are hitting their stride at just the right time. The defense has been especially hot during the streak, compiling thirty-one sacks and allowing just 16.5 points per contest. Usually it’s the offense that fuels the D. Right now, it’s the other way around, and the Steelers are just fine with that. Against New England however, the offense must score touchdowns instead of field goals and apply pressure on Brady to have a chance.
The winner will be playing in the Super Bowl for a league record ninth time. Brady has never lost to Pittsburgh at home (4-0, including postseason) and has a passer rating of 127.5 with 19 TDs/0 INT against Tomlin coached Steelers (NFL Research). Patriots with ease, right?
It’s going to take a perfect game plan to knock off the Belichickians. When it comes down to it, there’s nothing worse than watching the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Prediction: Steelers 29, Patriots 27



  

No comments:

Post a Comment