One Shining Moment: Super Bowl LI

After 266 games, it all comes down to one. Four quarters. 60 minutes. In a postseason that has seen an average margin of victory of 15.7 points - with all but two games (out of 10) decided by at least two scores – the season finale will try to break that trend. With it comes the juggernaut and the afterthought. A team expected to be there against a team defying the odds. The gold standard vs. the rookies. A seven-timer vs. a first-timer. One final time, the Patriots and Falcons will lace em up for the ultimate prize – the Lombardi Trophy.

(Sportslogos.net)

What does history say?

For just the sixth time in Super Bowl history, the number one scoring offense will square off against the number one scoring defense. Of the previous five such matchups, the team with the top defense has been the victor on all but one occasion (the most recent being Seattle dismantling the Broncos in 2014). Having the better defense doesn’t always translate to success however. In the last ten Super Bowls, the team that has boasted the better scoring defense has lost on seven occasions (3-7). The difference in this one though is that of New England’s top ranked offense (3^rd) as well.

Favorite or the underdog? The underdog has won the last four Super Bowls (’15 SB between Seattle & New England was even), and six of the last eight. The Patriots have lost the past two Super Bowls in which they were favored.  

And oddly enough, another factor that has become a key predictor… uniforms. Eleven of the last twelve teams to wear white have won the Super Bowl. Patriots will don the whites.

Super Bowl Fun Fact: Matt Ryan will become the first starting QB to wear No. 2 in the Super Bowl (Lukas).

The Matchup

The Favorite: New England Patriots

Defensive Ranks			Offensive Ranks
PPG	1st		PPG	3rd
YPG	8th		YPG	4th
RYPG	3rd		RYPG	7th
PYPG	12th		PYPG	4th

This will be the seventh Super Bowl for Brady and Belichick, most all-time for a QB-Coach duo. That alone makes them the favorite. For Brady, he can further supplant his legacy as the greatest ever by becoming the only quarterback in league history to win five titles (currently tied with Bradshaw and Montana at 4). Aside from that, he holds every significant postseason record. It’s also interesting to note that he has never lost to Atlanta in his career (4-0) with every game having been decided by at least ten points.  

The offense once again ranks among the elite. It’s an offense that finds success from every component doing their job. They run ‘strategic’ pick plays for receivers to gain separation. They use chop blocks to cut down pass rushers on short routes. Anything they can do to gain a competitive advantage, they will. It really comes down to Brady finding the mismatch and attacking it. This is where Atlanta could struggle, especially being without their top corner. Without pressure, Brady will pick apart the Atlanta defense which could spell doom for a team looking to capture their first title. And bringing an extra guy might not be the best idea either. This season alone, Brady went 61-of-99 for 838 yards, 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions, with a passer rating of 125.7 against the blitz (ESPN). Over the past three seasons, Brady has been sacked on just 2.7 percent of blitzes, easily the best in the league. It’s safe to say the Falcons will have their hands full.

And then there is the Patriots defense. After leading the league in scoring in the regular season, they’ve allowed just 33 points in the postseason (16.5 per game). A defense that doesn’t have any true standouts, the Pats field efficient and intelligent players that do their job at a high level. They pride themselves on not giving up the big play – gave up the fewest plays of 40 yards or more – and forcing field goals when teams enter the red zone. Atlanta will pose a whole new challenge as they ranked fourth in big play percentage (defined as a rushing play of more than 10 yards and a passing play of more than 25 yards) during the season by converting a big play on almost 10% of their snaps (9.35). Not only do the Pats take away the big play, but the opposing teams best player as well. Can they do it against the best offense they’ve seen all year? That will be a major key in slowing one of the league’s best.  

The Underdog: Atlanta Falcons

Defensive Ranks			Offensive Ranks
PPG	27th		PPG	1st
YPG	25th		YPG	2nd
RYPG	17th		RYPG	5th
PYPG	28th		PYPG	3rd

Before the season began, the Cleveland Browns received more bets to win the Super Bowl than… you guessed it. The Atlanta Falcons. Let that sink in. The Birds were further off the radar than one of the worst teams ever in league history. While we may have to wait forever for the former to become a reality, the Falcons have rode a surreal hot streak to claim a spot in the big game for just the second time in franchise history. And they’ve done it riding a high-octane offense led by the MVP no one saw coming, Matt Ryan.

Every great offense starts with a great signal caller. In what has been a career year, Ryan has obliterated defenses all season long. His numbers in his last six games (inc. playoffs) are off the charts:

	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	Y/Att	TD	INT	Rating	QBR
Ryan	142	195	72.8%	1,861	9.5	18	0	133.3	92.5

He has orchestrated an offense that led the league in scoring during the regular season with 540 points, good for eighth best all-time. They’ve carried that into the playoffs with 80 points in two games. It’s an offense that is so dynamic thanks to a multitude of playmakers. Aside from arguably the league’s best wide out in Julio Jones (only receiver in the league to average triple digits in receiving yards per game, 100.6), the Falcons also boast the best complimentary backfield duo in the league in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. The two combined for a league best 2,482 yards from scrimmage (1,599 rushing & 883 receiving) and 24 TD’s. Coleman averaged a remarkable 13.6 yards per catch. And don’t sleep on the other receivers either. Free agent pickups Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel turned in career seasons, combining for 94 receptions, 1,232 yards and 10 TD’s. They’ve been counted on all year when teams have decided to double Julio – which will surely be a part of Belichick’s game plan – and they’ve delivered.

The defense comes in playing much better as of late. They held Russell Wilson and the Hawks to 309 yards and 20 points. A week later, they contained a red hot Aaron Rodgers led offense to 21 points, a team that had been averaging 34.8 in the previous six. They have given up 21 points or fewer in five of their last six. Fielding the youngest defense in the league, the Birds are hitting their stride at just the right time. They’ve had success with pressure and creating turnovers. In the postseason, they’ve totaled five sacks and four turnovers. New England poses a much greater threat thanks to a better offensive line and a quicker passing game. But for Atlanta to hoist the Lombardi, or even have a chance, continuing the trend of pressure along with winning the turnover battle is a must.

Prediction

The Falcons and Patriots finished one-two in scoring margin for the season. They’ve carried that trend into the playoffs, as Atlanta has outscored its opponents by 39 points, New England by 37. This is a game that will feature the highest combined passer rating, 114.9, by opposing QB’s in Super Bowl history, which should set up for a high scoring affair.  

Something tells me this is a LeGarrette Blount game and he goes off for over a hundred yards and a couple of scores and Brady contributes to win his elusive fifth. Everything says advantage Patriots. So much so that I feel like they could score on every possession. But what makes it fun if what’s expected to happen actually happens? There’s just something about being the underdog that brings out the best in a team…

In one of the largest underdog stories in the history of sports, the legendary Herb Brooks said it best before the United States stunned the Soviets in the miracle on ice, “Great moments are born from great opportunity, and that’s what you have here tonight, boys. That’s what you’ve earned here tonight. One game; if we played them ten times, they might win nine. But not this game, not tonight… this is your time. Their time is done. It’s over. I’m sick and tired of hearing about what a great [football] team the [Patriots] have. Screw ‘em. This is your time. Now go out there and take it!!”

Well, that’s enough to persuade me. Falcons capture their first ever Lombardi.

Atlanta 31, New England 30