NFL Divisional Round Preview: Can the Momentum be stopped?

And then there were eight. With the wild-card round in the rearview – a round that saw a 19-point average margin of victory (the largest in thirty-five years) – it’s time to look ahead to this weekend’s matchups. Thankfully, the divisional round should be much more competitive. Coincidentally, every game is a rematch from the regular season.     

                                                  

Seattle (3) at Atlanta (2)

Head-to-head postseason: Atlanta leads 1-0

All-time in divisional round: Seattle 4-7, Atlanta 3-5

The battle of the birds. The only time these two squared off in the playoffs was 2012, also the last time Atlanta made the postseason. This time, it will feature the league’s best scoring offense against arguably the best defense. What a prelude to the divisional round.

Seahawks Defense		Falcons Offense
3rd	PPG	1st
5th	Yards PG	2nd
4th	Yds. Per Play	1st

One of the most underrated teams in the league, the Atlanta Falcons could finally silence the doubters by defeating the playoff prominent Hawks. Even more under the radar than anyone is Falcons signal caller Matt Ryan, who lead the league in QB rating (117.1) and Yds./Att. (9.26), was 2^nd in yards (4,944) and TD’s (38), and 3^rd in completion pct. (69.9) in the regular season. He heads arguably the league’s best offensive attack, and with no Earl Thomas for Seattle this time around, Atlanta has to like their chances of putting up some points in this one.  

Leaning on their running game in the first round against Detroit, the Seahawks may be able to find similar success this weekend. The Falcons defense ranked 17^th in rushing yards allowed and 25^th overall. No doubt Seattle will try to ride Rawls again (and C.J. Prosise, if available), as keeping Atlanta’s high octane offense on the sideline would be a huge advantage. Similarly, just as Thomas is out, the Falcons will be without its top corner Desmond Trufant, opening things up for Russell Wilson and the passing game.

If the first meeting was any indication (26-24), this has all the makings of a classic.

Prediction: Atlanta 34, Seattle 28

Houston (4) at New England (1)

Head-to-head postseason: New England leads 1-0

All-time in divisional round: New England 13-6, Houston 0-2

This is a matchup that really comes down to one key component: experience vs. inexperience. This will be the Patriots sixth consecutive postseason appearance in the divisional round. They’ve advanced to championship weekend the past five. On the other side, Houston has never advanced past the divisional round - this is just their third trip in franchise history. That in itself should be the difference in this one.

The Pats dismantled Houston back in Week 3 by a score of 27-0. That performance was without QB Tom Brady. That doesn’t bode well for the Texans. With the franchise QB available in this one, New England has all but assured themselves another spot in the AFC title game. Brady holds a career postseason record of 15-3 at home and already has the all-time record for most playoff wins (22).  

Meanwhile, Houston is on the opposite side of the spectrum when it comes to the quarterback position. Although he played pretty well in his debut, Brock Osweiler will be making just his second career postseason start. On the road, in Foxborough, in inclement weather. This will be the toughest of tasks for a quarterback that has highly underwhelmed in his first full year as a starter. Houston’s strong defense would have to make an astronomical amount of plays to even keep this close. Patriots cruise.

Prediction: New England 31, Houston 10

Pittsburgh (3) at Kansas City (2)

Head-to-head postseason: Kansas City leads 1-0

All-time in divisional round: Pittsburgh 15-9, Kansas City 2-7

Patience: it’s hard to find a more effective component to Le’Veon Bell’s game. His patience at the line of scrimmage is one of the more bizarre yet remarkable tactics this season has seen, and has added yet another piece to an already potent offense. Just when you think he’s going to be stopped behind the line, he bursts through for yardage.

Patience also represents something the Steelers are coming to appreciate as of late. After beginning the season 4-5, the Steelers have reeled off eight straight. Better yet, Pittsburgh has waited three long seasons to be healthy at this stage of the playoffs. For the first time in their careers, the killer B’s (Ben, Bell, Brown) made their debut together in a playoff game. And if it’s a sign of things to come, opponents are in trouble. The Steelers dismantled an undermanned Miami squad to the tune of 367 yards (Ben 197 passing, Bell 167 rushing, Brown 124 receiving) and 4 TD’s. This weekend presents another juicy matchup on paper as the Chiefs surrender the 24^th most yards a game. Don’t forget about the defense either in the Steel City. They have compiled a league best thirty sacks in the last eight contests, while only allowing 15.5 points per game.  

After a relatively slow start (2-2), Kansas City comes in having won ten of their last twelve. They’ve been especially hot in their last six, averaging 27.8 points/game. The emergence of dynamic threat Tyreek Hill (accounted for 12 TD’s - 6 receiving, 3 rushing, 2 punt return, and 1 kickoff return) has been a major reason why. His ability to affect the game in multiple ways is a huge x-factor. Another thing to keep in mind: Andy Reid is 19-2 in his career coming off a bye. He is a master with extra time to prepare. And a key stat that could determine the winner: turnovers – the Chiefs lead the league in turnover margin in the regular season (+16), while the Steelers have recorded at least one turnover in eleven straight.

Going to Kansas City is no easy task and the Chiefs should have extra motivation having lost 43-14 in Pittsburgh earlier this season. But the men in black are hitting their stride at just the right time. The Steelers keep the bus rolling in a tight one.   

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Kansas City 23

Green Bay (4) at Dallas (1)

Head-to-head postseason: Dallas leads 4-3

All-time in divisional round: Green Bay 8-10, Dallas 15-10

Aaron Rodgers has been otherworldly during the Pack’s seven game winning streak – completing 69.5% of his passes for 2,029 yards, 19 TD, and 0 INT. The guy threw for 362 yards and 4 TD’s in sub-zero conditions without his leading target Jordy Nelson (who left with injury). He has lead Green Bay to 31.9 points/game in their last seven, which includes scoring at least 30 in five straight. If the Packers reach thirty in this one, no doubt they'll be advancing.

If there is one thing that can stop a high powered offense, it’s ball control. Dallas was second in the league in time of possession/drive thanks to having the best running game and O-line in football. Lead by the all-rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys will need to do more of the same to win on Sunday. Thankfully, Elliott is no stranger to big games. He helped the Buckeyes win the title over Bama in 2015 (230 yards, 2 TD). And all he did in his first season as a pro was rush for a league high 1,631 yards. Can he be the difference in the Playoffs? He’s going to have to be if the Boys want to advance.     

Momentum is a hard thing to stop, let alone contain. Mr. Rodgers and co. keep the streak rolling in Big D.

Prediction: Green Bay 30, Dallas 24