Wild-Card Round
Over the
past four seasons, at least one away (lower seeded) team has advanced on
wild-card weekend. Incredibly, last year, all four lower seeded teams won. This
year represents three re-matches of teams that squared off in the regular season.
Oakland (5) at Houston (4)
Head-to-head
postseason: First ever meeting
The Raiders
went from being the number one overall seed to a wild-card in a matter of
weeks, in large part to losing their franchise quarterback and MVP candidate
Derek Carr for the season. In turn, it virtually erased all chances of a Super
Bowl run. Still, Oakland is making its first playoff appearance since 2002. And
now, they turn to rookie Connor Cook, who will be making his first career start in an elimination
game, becoming the first player ever to make his initial start in the playoffs. Does it get any better than that?
Meanwhile,
Houston’s quarterback situation isn’t any better. They respond with
outrageously overpaid and underperforming Brock Osweiler. Quite possibly the
biggest free agent bust in the history of the NFL, he has been anything but
effective. He ended the season 27th in yards, 27th in TD
passes, 29th in QB rating, and last in yards per attempt. And yet
here the Texans are thanks to a porous division and solid defense. Overall, not
a good situation to be in for a playoff run.
This is a
game that will more than likely come down to the running game, controlling the
ball, and defense. Houston’s defense ranked number one in total yards allowed
per game (301.3), while Oakland tied for the lead in turnover margin (+16). With
two relatively inexperienced clubs, the victor may be decided by the team that
capitalizes on the other’s mistakes.
The Raiders won 27-20 in
week 11, but this is a team that is reeling without their star signal caller. In
a toss-up, Houston wins in the least exciting game on the slate.
Season
Ranks
|
|||||
Offense
|
Defense
|
||||
Oakland
|
Houston
|
Oakland
|
Houston
|
||
R Yds./G
|
6th
|
8th
|
23rd
|
12th
|
|
Pass Yds./G
|
13th
|
29th
|
24th
|
2nd
|
|
Scoring
|
7th
|
28th
|
20th
|
11th
|
|
Prediction: Houston 20, Oakland 16
Detroit (6) at Seattle (3)
Head-to-head
postseason: First ever meeting
Is there any
way Detroit goes into the land of the 12’s and shocks the Hawks? It’d be hard
to see such a scenario. Seattle has won nine straight postseason games at home,
the 3rd longest streak in NFL history. In addition, QB Russell
Wilson is 4-0 at the Link in the playoffs, and 38-5 as a starter at home.
Neither team
has been playing particularly well, as Seattle is coming in losing three of
their last six, and Detroit has lost its last three, blowing their chances at
both a division crown and hosting a first round game. A trip out west is the
worst possible draw the Lions could have landed, while the Seahawks are in
great position to snag another playoff win under Carroll.
Detroit hasn’t won
a playoff game since 1991. That drought continues.
Season
Ranks
|
|||||
Offense
|
Defense
|
||||
Detroit
|
Seattle
|
Detroit
|
Seattle
|
||
R Yds./G
|
30th
|
25th
|
18th
|
7th
|
|
Pass Yds./G
|
11th
|
10th
|
19th
|
8th
|
|
Scoring
|
20th
|
18th
|
13th
|
3rd
|
|
Prediction: Seattle 26, Detroit 17
Miami (6) at Pittsburgh (3)
Head-to-head
postseason: Miami leads 2-1
The
turnaround from first year Head Coach Adam Gase cannot be understated. He has
turned a once proud franchise into a contender again, even after an abysmal 1-4
start. As a result, Miami is making its first trip to the playoffs since 2008.
They haven’t advanced in the postseason in over fifteen years (2000)! Going to Pittsburgh
isn’t the best of draws to end the latter. It’s especially tougher having
already beat them earlier in the season, as beating a history rich franchise
twice in the same year isn’t the easiest of tasks. But that 30-15 throttling in
week six should give the Phins some confidence to build on. After all, this is
a group that has defied odds all season long. What may be tougher than anything
to overcome is the lack of depth at key defensive positions. Ravished by
injuries, Miami will have to win the turnover battle and force field goals in
order to have a shot at advancing.
On the other
side, Pittsburgh is one of the hottest teams in the league having won seven
straight after beginning the season 4-5. The big three - Ben, Bell & Brown
- is arguably the best QB/RB/WR trio in the league. And with a depleted Miami
defense, specifically at linebacker and in the secondary, the Steelers will
look to take full advantage come Sunday.
Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh has been to the postseason seven times, including the past three seasons. Experience and depth should be the difference in this one.
Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh has been to the postseason seven times, including the past three seasons. Experience and depth should be the difference in this one.
Season Ranks
|
|||||
Offense
|
Defense
|
||||
Miami
|
Pittsburgh
|
Miami
|
Pittsburgh
|
||
R
Yds./G
|
9th
|
14th
|
30th
|
13th
|
|
Pass
Yds./G
|
26th
|
5th
|
15th
|
16th
|
|
Scoring
|
17th
|
10th
|
18th
|
10th
|
|
Prediction: Pittsburgh 30, Miami 23
New York (5) at Green Bay (4)
Head-to-head
postseason: Green Bay leads 4-3
This will be
the first wild-card matchup in postseason history between two former Super Bowl
MVP QBs (Manning vs. Rodgers). It shouldn’t disappoint. Green Bay has won six
straight, while the G-men have won nine of their last eleven, including two
wins over the number one seeded Cowboys.
The good news for the Giants is that this
will be their second trip to Lambeau Field, which helps with the familiarity
side of things (lost 23-16 in week 5). On a larger scale, Green Bay will be dealing
with a decimated secondary which should bode well for Beckham and Co. The bad
news is that Aaron Rodgers stands in their way. During the Pack’s six game winning
streak, he has completed 71% (142/200) of his passes for 1,667, 15 TD’s and 0
INT, leading the offense to an average of 30.8 points/gm in that span. If the
Packers reach thirty in this one, forget about it (New York hasn’t scored 30 in
any game all season).
Even though all the momentum and odds seem to be in
Green Bay’s favor, there is just something about the New York Football Giants and
Eli Manning that screams upset. They win in a thriller.
Season
Ranks
|
|||||
Offense
|
Defense
|
||||
New
York
|
Green
Bay
|
New
York
|
Green
Bay
|
||
R Yds./G
|
29th
|
20th
|
3rd
|
8th
|
|
Pass Yds./G
|
17th
|
7th
|
23rd
|
31st
|
|
Scoring
|
26th
|
4th
|
2nd
|
21st
|
|
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