Sunday, December 3, 2017

The Resolution to the Great Debate: Expansion

Ohio State or Alabama?

A two-loss conference champion or a one-loss powerhouse?

Two polarizing teams, only one spot.

For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, history was to be made regardless of the decision: select a two-loss conference champion (OSU) or select two teams from the same conference (SEC - Georgia & Bama).

The committee chose the latter, and for the second consecutive season snubbed a two-loss BIG Ten champion for a one-loss at large. And now the fallout begins.

Which team deserved to make the College Football Playoff? 

OHIO STATE
ALABAMA
FPI Rank
2nd
1st
Chance to Make CFP<<
40%
28%
Strength of Record Rank
7th
4th
Strength of Schedule Rank
50th
46th
Conference Champ?
Yes
No
Ranked Wins
vs 4 Wisc, 9 PSU, 16 MSU
17 LSU, 25 Fresno
Losses
3 OU, at Iowa
at 2 Auburn
>>According to FiveThirtyEight (ESPN.com)

Obviously, it could be argued that both deserved a spot.

While Ohio State got throttled by both Oklahoma (at home) and a 7-5 Iowa squad (55-24), the Buckeyes captured the BIG Ten title – arguably the best conference in the country – including two top-5 wins over Penn State and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, Alabama failed to win (or even play for) its conference title, but was still dominant in the regular season – outscoring opponents 455-112 in their 11 victories, including 293-72 in SEC play. The Crimson Tide’s lone loss came at the hands of its bitter rival Auburn (the last week of the season) – a team that was ranked no. 2 in week 14 before its conference championship loss to Georgia.

Ultimately the committee felt that Bama deserved the final spot, creating a debate that will go on for weeks. Maybe Ohio State's 31-0 loss in last year's playoff to Clemson played into it. But regardless of where you stand, it's a situation that seems destined for change.  

The resolution: expansion. 

If five conferences have been given the "Power Five" designation, should the victor from each not get a shot at the national title? Just as March Madness sees its conference champions punch automatic tickets to the big dance (albeit on a larger scale), the CFP should follow suit with an 8-team playoff. 

Here's the breakdown:
- Each Power Five conference champion gets an automatic berth - seeded based on the final CFP rankings.
- Three at-large berths, including the highest ranked non-power five team. 

Here's what this year would look like:

More teams would create more hysteria in the college football playoffs.
The gift that keeps on giving? The best part about this layout would be that the No. 4 team would play No. 5 - in this case Bama-Ohio State, the two that made up this year's great debate. 

And remember. Last season saw Penn State - who many thought should have had a shot in the 4-team field - play USC in the Rose Bowl in the most entertaining game of the post-season. 

In the illustration above, most would argue a team like UCF wouldn't stand a chance against Clemson, but the same people argued Boise State didn't have a chance against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. It would allow that slim chance to hop on board a Cinderella and bring a once in a lifetime experience to a lesser known fan-base. 

College football is one of the most exciting sports in all of America. Expanding the playoff field to eight would make it that much better. 


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