The Final Four: The Road to Houston Awaits

For the first time in the last four seasons, the Super Bowl will not be a matchup of #1 seeds. Championship weekend has arrived, bringing with it four of the top eight offenses from the regular season. Three of the four teams rank in the top-four all-time in postseason wins (1. PIT 36, 2. GB 34, and 4. NE 30). Better yet, the remaining QB’s have combined to win 7 Super Bowls (Brady 4, Roethlisberger 2, Rodgers 1) – the most on any Championship weekend since the 1970 merger (ESPN Stats & Info). The one without a ring? He's playing just as well if not better than the other three. This very well might be the greatest matchup of quarterbacks ever in this round.

         

Green Bay (4) at Atlanta (2)
Head-to-head postseason: Green Bay leads 2-1

NFC Championship all-time: Green Bay 5-3, Atlanta 1-2

Saving the best for last. The last game ever at the Georgia Dome will feature two of the highest scoring teams in the league – Atlanta 1st (33.8/gm) and Green Bay 4th (27/gm). When these two met in week 8, they combined for 55 points and 700 yards of total offense in a last second thriller. Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan put on a clinic per usual, combining for 7 touchdowns – the last of which was the game-winner from Ryan with seconds left. This time, the encore should live up to the hype as the two MVP frontrunners – who ranked #1 & #2 in TD passes – go head-to-head with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

It’s a similar scenario for the cheese heads. In 2010, the last time these two met in the playoffs, Green Bay was the wildcard going on the road to Atlanta in the Divisional round. Rodgers went off (surprise) for 366 yards and 3 TDs as the Pack dominated 48-21. They went on to win the Super Bowl. Enter 2016 (season) and the Pack are one win away from securing another spot in the title game.

Ever since Green Bay’s signal caller declared “I feel like we can run the table”, the Pack have reeled off eight straight. And as we all know, Rodgers has been the catalyst. It doesn’t matter what this team is dealing with (specifically injuries), as long as Mr. Rodgers is behind center, all is well. Even with virtually no running game – currently consists of a fullback and converted wide receiver – and currently without top target Nelson, he has still led the offense to thirty or more points in six straight. He is simply in a zone, and it’s special to watch. His secret to success must come down to one thing... he’s the only quarterback in the league that sports the original vintage one-buckle chinstrap. On the other side, the defense did just enough last weekend against Dallas, but will need a much more effective plan against the number one scoring attack. Turnovers could be the x-factor.

Meanwhile, under the radar Matt Ryan is enjoying the best season of his credible career. A team that has no shortage of star power, the Falcons have scored at least 33 points in six of their last seven, averaging a ridiculous 36.6 in those contests. Just how explosive is this offense? In the two games without Julio Jones (turf toe), the Falcons scored 42 and 41 points, respectively. They’ve recorded 40+ points on five occasions. So come Sunday, there shouldn’t be anything slowing this Falcons team, as Green Bay’s defense ranked in the bottom half in yards and points allowed, and will be without several starters in the secondary. It will be interesting to see if the experience factor comes into play for a relatively young Atlanta team.

Offenses will be on full display in this one. This feels like a game that should come down to the final possession. Last game in the dome... Something says advantage dirty birds.  

Prediction: Atlanta 41, Green Bay 38

    

Pittsburgh (3) at New England (1)

Head-to-head postseason: New England leads 3-1

AFC Championship all-time: Pittsburgh 8-7, New England 8-4

Two legends trying to put a stamp on their storied legacies. Including the playoffs, Tom Brady & Ben Roethlisberger have combined for 342 wins, 839 TD passes, and 121,113 passing (NFL Research). Along the way, a total of six Super Bowls have been captured. This is as good as it gets for a Conference Championship.  

The Patriots have never lost a game with RB Dion Lewis on the field (15-0). Talk about an important piece to the puzzle. Ever since he returned, Lewis has added another weapon to Brady’s arsenal. While the Patriots didn’t look the part in its divisional round win over Houston, they still won by three scores (18). That’s scary. And it was Lewis’s 98-yard kick return that sparked an otherwise dull first half performance (one of three TD’s on the night). This is a team that puts so much pressure on the opposition because they do everything so fundamentally sound.

Brady prides himself on being perfect (and the biggest cry baby in the league) which stems from his preparation and it shows. His numbers were once again off the charts as he led this offense to another top five finish (4th). The defense ranked number one in the league in points allowed (15.6) although half of their games were against the seven worst offenses in the league (LA, SF, CLE, HOU, DEN, and NYJ 2). This will definitely be their biggest test of the year as it will be just the second game all year facing a top-10 quarterback – the first was a loss to Russell Wilson and the Hawks.

The Steelers enter this contest tying the record for most conference championship appearances (16). And unlike the previous two meetings with New England in this round (losses), they’re hoping the third time is a charm, and with good reason. This is one of the more complete offenses from seasons past, as it pairs the most dynamic versatile runner (Bell) with arguably the most complete wide receiver (Brown). Not to mention one of the all-time greats behind center in Big Ben. It’s worth noting that Bell is the only running back in the league that plays every offensive snap every series. It’s remarkable. He never comes off the field which in turn never gives the defense a break. And after recording the most rushing yards ever in a player’s first two postseason games, it will be interesting to see if he can have the same success against Belichick’s game plan.

Winners of nine straight, the black and yellow are hitting their stride at just the right time. The defense has been especially hot during the streak, compiling thirty-one sacks and allowing just 16.5 points per contest. Usually it’s the offense that fuels the D. Right now, it’s the other way around, and the Steelers are just fine with that. Against New England however, the offense must score touchdowns instead of field goals and apply pressure on Brady to have a chance.

The winner will be playing in the Super Bowl for a league record ninth time. Brady has never lost to Pittsburgh at home (4-0, including postseason) and has a passer rating of 127.5 with 19 TDs/0 INT against Tomlin coached Steelers (NFL Research). Patriots with ease, right?

It’s going to take a perfect game plan to knock off the Belichickians. When it comes down to it, there’s nothing worse than watching the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Prediction: Steelers 29, Patriots 27

  

NFL Divisional Round Preview: Can the Momentum be stopped?

And then there were eight. With the wild-card round in the rearview – a round that saw a 19-point average margin of victory (the largest in thirty-five years) – it’s time to look ahead to this weekend’s matchups. Thankfully, the divisional round should be much more competitive. Coincidentally, every game is a rematch from the regular season.     

                                                  

Seattle (3) at Atlanta (2)

Head-to-head postseason: Atlanta leads 1-0

All-time in divisional round: Seattle 4-7, Atlanta 3-5

The battle of the birds. The only time these two squared off in the playoffs was 2012, also the last time Atlanta made the postseason. This time, it will feature the league’s best scoring offense against arguably the best defense. What a prelude to the divisional round.

Seahawks Defense		Falcons Offense
3rd	PPG	1st
5th	Yards PG	2nd
4th	Yds. Per Play	1st

One of the most underrated teams in the league, the Atlanta Falcons could finally silence the doubters by defeating the playoff prominent Hawks. Even more under the radar than anyone is Falcons signal caller Matt Ryan, who lead the league in QB rating (117.1) and Yds./Att. (9.26), was 2^nd in yards (4,944) and TD’s (38), and 3^rd in completion pct. (69.9) in the regular season. He heads arguably the league’s best offensive attack, and with no Earl Thomas for Seattle this time around, Atlanta has to like their chances of putting up some points in this one.  

Leaning on their running game in the first round against Detroit, the Seahawks may be able to find similar success this weekend. The Falcons defense ranked 17^th in rushing yards allowed and 25^th overall. No doubt Seattle will try to ride Rawls again (and C.J. Prosise, if available), as keeping Atlanta’s high octane offense on the sideline would be a huge advantage. Similarly, just as Thomas is out, the Falcons will be without its top corner Desmond Trufant, opening things up for Russell Wilson and the passing game.

If the first meeting was any indication (26-24), this has all the makings of a classic.

Prediction: Atlanta 34, Seattle 28

Houston (4) at New England (1)

Head-to-head postseason: New England leads 1-0

All-time in divisional round: New England 13-6, Houston 0-2

This is a matchup that really comes down to one key component: experience vs. inexperience. This will be the Patriots sixth consecutive postseason appearance in the divisional round. They’ve advanced to championship weekend the past five. On the other side, Houston has never advanced past the divisional round - this is just their third trip in franchise history. That in itself should be the difference in this one.

The Pats dismantled Houston back in Week 3 by a score of 27-0. That performance was without QB Tom Brady. That doesn’t bode well for the Texans. With the franchise QB available in this one, New England has all but assured themselves another spot in the AFC title game. Brady holds a career postseason record of 15-3 at home and already has the all-time record for most playoff wins (22).  

Meanwhile, Houston is on the opposite side of the spectrum when it comes to the quarterback position. Although he played pretty well in his debut, Brock Osweiler will be making just his second career postseason start. On the road, in Foxborough, in inclement weather. This will be the toughest of tasks for a quarterback that has highly underwhelmed in his first full year as a starter. Houston’s strong defense would have to make an astronomical amount of plays to even keep this close. Patriots cruise.

Prediction: New England 31, Houston 10

Pittsburgh (3) at Kansas City (2)

Head-to-head postseason: Kansas City leads 1-0

All-time in divisional round: Pittsburgh 15-9, Kansas City 2-7

Patience: it’s hard to find a more effective component to Le’Veon Bell’s game. His patience at the line of scrimmage is one of the more bizarre yet remarkable tactics this season has seen, and has added yet another piece to an already potent offense. Just when you think he’s going to be stopped behind the line, he bursts through for yardage.

Patience also represents something the Steelers are coming to appreciate as of late. After beginning the season 4-5, the Steelers have reeled off eight straight. Better yet, Pittsburgh has waited three long seasons to be healthy at this stage of the playoffs. For the first time in their careers, the killer B’s (Ben, Bell, Brown) made their debut together in a playoff game. And if it’s a sign of things to come, opponents are in trouble. The Steelers dismantled an undermanned Miami squad to the tune of 367 yards (Ben 197 passing, Bell 167 rushing, Brown 124 receiving) and 4 TD’s. This weekend presents another juicy matchup on paper as the Chiefs surrender the 24^th most yards a game. Don’t forget about the defense either in the Steel City. They have compiled a league best thirty sacks in the last eight contests, while only allowing 15.5 points per game.  

After a relatively slow start (2-2), Kansas City comes in having won ten of their last twelve. They’ve been especially hot in their last six, averaging 27.8 points/game. The emergence of dynamic threat Tyreek Hill (accounted for 12 TD’s - 6 receiving, 3 rushing, 2 punt return, and 1 kickoff return) has been a major reason why. His ability to affect the game in multiple ways is a huge x-factor. Another thing to keep in mind: Andy Reid is 19-2 in his career coming off a bye. He is a master with extra time to prepare. And a key stat that could determine the winner: turnovers – the Chiefs lead the league in turnover margin in the regular season (+16), while the Steelers have recorded at least one turnover in eleven straight.

Going to Kansas City is no easy task and the Chiefs should have extra motivation having lost 43-14 in Pittsburgh earlier this season. But the men in black are hitting their stride at just the right time. The Steelers keep the bus rolling in a tight one.   

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Kansas City 23

Green Bay (4) at Dallas (1)

Head-to-head postseason: Dallas leads 4-3

All-time in divisional round: Green Bay 8-10, Dallas 15-10

Aaron Rodgers has been otherworldly during the Pack’s seven game winning streak – completing 69.5% of his passes for 2,029 yards, 19 TD, and 0 INT. The guy threw for 362 yards and 4 TD’s in sub-zero conditions without his leading target Jordy Nelson (who left with injury). He has lead Green Bay to 31.9 points/game in their last seven, which includes scoring at least 30 in five straight. If the Packers reach thirty in this one, no doubt they'll be advancing.

If there is one thing that can stop a high powered offense, it’s ball control. Dallas was second in the league in time of possession/drive thanks to having the best running game and O-line in football. Lead by the all-rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys will need to do more of the same to win on Sunday. Thankfully, Elliott is no stranger to big games. He helped the Buckeyes win the title over Bama in 2015 (230 yards, 2 TD). And all he did in his first season as a pro was rush for a league high 1,631 yards. Can he be the difference in the Playoffs? He’s going to have to be if the Boys want to advance.     

Momentum is a hard thing to stop, let alone contain. Mr. Rodgers and co. keep the streak rolling in Big D.

Prediction: Green Bay 30, Dallas 24

Wild-Card Weekend Preview

We’ve reached a new year which can only mean one thing in the NFL – the playoffs have arrived. The field of twelve is finally set, and for the first time since 2003, it will not include either of the Super Bowl teams (Carolina & Denver) from the previous season. In the NFC, it’s easy to make the case for any team other than Detroit. In the AFC, it looks like only three teams have a realistic shot at advancing to Super Bowl Sunday.

           

Wild-Card Round

Over the past four seasons, at least one away (lower seeded) team has advanced on wild-card weekend. Incredibly, last year, all four lower seeded teams won. This year represents three re-matches of teams that squared off in the regular season.

Oakland (5) at Houston (4)

Head-to-head postseason: First ever meeting

The Raiders went from being the number one overall seed to a wild-card in a matter of weeks, in large part to losing their franchise quarterback and MVP candidate Derek Carr for the season. In turn, it virtually erased all chances of a Super Bowl run. Still, Oakland is making its first playoff appearance since 2002. And now, they turn to rookie Connor Cook, who will be making his first career start in an elimination game, becoming the first player ever to make his initial start in the playoffs. Does it get any better than that?

Meanwhile, Houston’s quarterback situation isn’t any better. They respond with outrageously overpaid and underperforming Brock Osweiler. Quite possibly the biggest free agent bust in the history of the NFL, he has been anything but effective. He ended the season 27^th in yards, 27^th in TD passes, 29^th in QB rating, and last in yards per attempt. And yet here the Texans are thanks to a porous division and solid defense. Overall, not a good situation to be in for a playoff run.

This is a game that will more than likely come down to the running game, controlling the ball, and defense. Houston’s defense ranked number one in total yards allowed per game (301.3), while Oakland tied for the lead in turnover margin (+16). With two relatively inexperienced clubs, the victor may be decided by the team that capitalizes on the other’s mistakes.

The Raiders won 27-20 in week 11, but this is a team that is reeling without their star signal caller. In a toss-up, Houston wins in the least exciting game on the slate.

	Season Ranks
	Offense			Defense
	Oakland	Houston		Oakland	Houston
R Yds./G	6th	8th		23rd	12th
Pass Yds./G	13th	29th		24th	2nd
Scoring	7th	28th		20th	11th

 Prediction: Houston 20, Oakland 16

Detroit (6) at Seattle (3)

Head-to-head postseason: First ever meeting

Is there any way Detroit goes into the land of the 12’s and shocks the Hawks? It’d be hard to see such a scenario. Seattle has won nine straight postseason games at home, the 3^rd longest streak in NFL history. In addition, QB Russell Wilson is 4-0 at the Link in the playoffs, and 38-5 as a starter at home.

Neither team has been playing particularly well, as Seattle is coming in losing three of their last six, and Detroit has lost its last three, blowing their chances at both a division crown and hosting a first round game. A trip out west is the worst possible draw the Lions could have landed, while the Seahawks are in great position to snag another playoff win under Carroll. 

Detroit hasn’t won a playoff game since 1991. That drought continues.

	Season Ranks
	Offense			Defense
	Detroit	Seattle		Detroit	Seattle
R Yds./G	30th	25th		18th	7th
Pass Yds./G	11th	10th		19th	8th
Scoring	20th	18th		13th	3rd

 Prediction: Seattle 26, Detroit 17

Miami (6) at Pittsburgh (3)

Head-to-head postseason: Miami leads 2-1

The turnaround from first year Head Coach Adam Gase cannot be understated. He has turned a once proud franchise into a contender again, even after an abysmal 1-4 start. As a result, Miami is making its first trip to the playoffs since 2008. They haven’t advanced in the postseason in over fifteen years (2000)! Going to Pittsburgh isn’t the best of draws to end the latter. It’s especially tougher having already beat them earlier in the season, as beating a history rich franchise twice in the same year isn’t the easiest of tasks. But that 30-15 throttling in week six should give the Phins some confidence to build on. After all, this is a group that has defied odds all season long. What may be tougher than anything to overcome is the lack of depth at key defensive positions. Ravished by injuries, Miami will have to win the turnover battle and force field goals in order to have a shot at advancing.

On the other side, Pittsburgh is one of the hottest teams in the league having won seven straight after beginning the season 4-5. The big three - Ben, Bell & Brown - is arguably the best QB/RB/WR trio in the league. And with a depleted Miami defense, specifically at linebacker and in the secondary, the Steelers will look to take full advantage come Sunday.

Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh has been to the postseason seven times, including the past three seasons. Experience and depth should be the difference in this one.

	Season Ranks
	Offense			Defense
	Miami	Pittsburgh		Miami	Pittsburgh
R Yds./G	9th	14th		30th	13th
Pass Yds./G	26th	5th		15th	16th
Scoring	17th	10th		18th	10th

 Prediction: Pittsburgh 30, Miami 23

New York (5) at Green Bay (4)

Head-to-head postseason: Green Bay leads 4-3

This will be the first wild-card matchup in postseason history between two former Super Bowl MVP QBs (Manning vs. Rodgers). It shouldn’t disappoint. Green Bay has won six straight, while the G-men have won nine of their last eleven, including two wins over the number one seeded Cowboys.

The good news for the Giants is that this will be their second trip to Lambeau Field, which helps with the familiarity side of things (lost 23-16 in week 5). On a larger scale, Green Bay will be dealing with a decimated secondary which should bode well for Beckham and Co. The bad news is that Aaron Rodgers stands in their way. During the Pack’s six game winning streak, he has completed 71% (142/200) of his passes for 1,667, 15 TD’s and 0 INT, leading the offense to an average of 30.8 points/gm in that span. If the Packers reach thirty in this one, forget about it (New York hasn’t scored 30 in any game all season).

Even though all the momentum and odds seem to be in Green Bay’s favor, there is just something about the New York Football Giants and Eli Manning that screams upset. They win in a thriller.

	Season Ranks
	Offense			Defense
	New York	Green Bay		New York	Green Bay
R Yds./G	29th	20th		3rd	8th
Pass Yds./G	17th	7th		23rd	31st
Scoring	26th	4th		2nd	21st

Prediction: New York 26, Green Bay 24