Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 16

Ten nuggets from the week
The Seahawks became the first team to win a game having recorded more penalty yards (142) than total yards (136) since the 1966 Eagles (ESPNStats&Info)…

The Eagles clinched the #1 seed and home field throughout the playoffs. They are the only team to win every game at home so far this season (7-0)...

The Jaguars clinched their first division title since 1999 while the Rams clinched their first since 2003...

The Browns clinched the #1 draft pick for the second consecutive season...

Saints QB Drew Brees became the third quarterback in NFL history to throw for 70,000 yards, joining Peyton Manning and Brett Favre (ESPNStats)...

Rams’ Sean McVay became the youngest head coach in NFL history to lead his team to the playoffs...

Seattle’s Russell Wilson became the first QB in NFL history to have a winning record in each of his first six seasons (NFLResearch)…

Steelers CB Mike Hilton became the first cornerback with 3 sacks in a game since sacks became official in 1982 (NFLResearch)…

The Vikings beat the Packers 16-0, recording their first shutout since 1993. They went 386 games between shutouts, the third longest streak in NFL history (ESPNStats)…

2017 will mark the first time in the Super Bowl era that the Cowboys, Giants, Redskins, Packers, and 49ers all missed the playoffs (NFLResearch).

Five Takeaways

5. Who is the favorite in the NFC?
This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting postseasons in recent memory, particularly in the NFC. Even more so if it has to go through Minnesota (the host for Super Bowl LII). Currently, the top four seeds in the NFC - Philadelphia, Minnesota, Los Angeles, and New Orleans - all rank in the top ten in total offense. The top two seeds (Philadelphia, Minnesota) also boast top ten (top 5) defenses.

Philadelphia seems to have lost a step since losing Carson Wentz behind center, but still remain unbeaten at home. The Vikings seem to be the most complete team, although it remains to be seen just how far journeyman-turned-star - Case Keenum - can take them. The Rams are young and inexperienced (first playoff app in 13 seasons) with a first year head coach and just six players (on the roster) who have played in a playoff game. Meanwhile, the Saints boast a Sean Payton-Drew Brees combination that has been there before. And a lethal backfield duo (Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram) which creates a number of mismatches for opposing defenses. But playing away from home has never been a forte for the Saints over the years (This season: 3-3 in true road games, and 7-1 at home with 7 straight wins).

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11 seasons in the making, Brees-Payton represent one of the best QB-HC duos in the league (sportingnews.com).
With so many quality teams in the NFC, it may be hard to find a distinct favorite. But one thing is for certain come January: the NFC is bound to live up to the hype.
          
4. Browns hit historic low
How is it even possible to be this bad for this long?

The Cleveland Browns are on the wrong side of re-writing history. With Sunday’s loss to Chicago (a 20-3 drubbing), the Browns remained winless on the season (0-15), and are now a horrendous (and unbelievable) 1-30 under Hue Jackson. Even more staggering… in their last 52 games, they are 4-48. For a franchise with one of the most loyal fan bases in all of the NFL, the product the Browns have put on the field has been consistently porous year after year. And with one more loss, they will become just the second team in NFL history to finish a season 0-16.

Fun Fact: The Browns are the first team to pick no. 1 overall in consecutive drafts since 1999-2000 (also the Browns).

3. Jimmy G climbing up the ranks of the elite?
Okay, it's early. But what a start to the career of Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco. The Eastern Illinois product is reviving a once dire franchise (1-10) with his astounding play -- resulting in four consecutive wins. On Sunday, he scorched the league’s number one passing/scoring defense to the tune of 242 yards, three touchdowns and 44 points (the most the Jags have allowed all season). He tallied the highest completion percentage and passer rating of any QB against the Jaguars all season:  
         
                Quarterbacks vs. Jaguars Defense
Weeks 1-15 Jimmy G (Week 16)
Comp Pct 56.7 70.0
Pass YPG 174 242
TD-INT 10-18 2-1
Passer Rtg 63.2 102.4

And don't forget, Garoppolo is doing this with unheralded players (George Kittle, Trent Taylor, Kyle Juszczyk, and Marquise Goodwin). In other words, he is elevating the play of his supporting cast - a significant factor in elite QB play. The combination of Shanahan-Garoppolo looks like a lethal one for years to come.

Fun Fact: Jimmy Garoppolo is 6-0 as a starter (4-0 w/ Niners, 2-0 w/ Pats) becoming the first QB to win each of his first six starts since Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. 

2. Gurley continues MVP surge
Rams RB Todd Gurley continued his MVP campaign by tallying 276 yards from scrimmage (118 rushing & 158 receiving on 10 catches) and two touchdowns, becoming the first player to record 100 rushing yards and 150 receiving yards in a game since Herschel Walker in 1986 (SportsCenter). In addition, the dual-threat became the third player in NFL history to tally more than 2000 yards from scrimmage, 10+ rushing TD’s and 5+ receiving TD’s in a season (NFLNetwork). All while leading the Rams to their first division title since 2003. In a pass-heavy league, Gurley continues to dazzle as the feature back in McVay's offense, serving as a game-changer for the LA franchise.

The last time a RB won the MVP? Adrian Peterson in 2012. You could argue Gurley is having a superior season (than that of Peterson's):

Image result for todd gurley vs adrian peterson MVP season
(yahoosports)
The ultra-sensation appears to be getting stronger as the season wears on, which can only bode well for a team seeking to make a deep postseason run.

1. Diamond in the rough
Oftentimes, injuries behind center derail a teams' hope for success (i.e. Packers). Other times, it just so happens to act as a blessing in disguise. In the off-season, the Vikings signed QB Case Keenum as a serviceable backup to the oft-injured Sam Bradford. They needed depth in a QB room that included Teddy Bridgewater coming off a year-long injury.

As the story goes, Bradford didn't last more than one full game. And with Bridgewater still on the mend, the next man up was an undrafted journeyman from Houston who had limited success in his two previous stints (9-15).

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The Keenum-led Vikings are hoping to be the first team ever to play a SB at home (WSJ). 
All the fifth-year product has done since is flourish, leading Skol nation to the AFC North title and a number two seed in the playoffs. Sometimes all it takes is a great opportunity in a great situation. Which is exactly what the Vikings offered, with OC Pat Shurmur being the catalyst.
                       
     What a Turnaround: Keenum's Career at a Glance
2012-16 (Texans, Rams) 2017 (Vikings)
Record 9-15 10-3
Comp/Att 454/777 (58.4%) 304/452 (67.3%)
YDS 5,224 3,358
TD-INT 24-20 21-7
QB Rating 78.6 98.1

Keenum's perseverance has ignited not only his career, but a Vikings fan base seeking its first ever Super Bowl title. Leading to one of the best stories of the 2017 football season.

Fun Fact: Keenum has more wins this season (10) than he had in his previous five seasons combined (9).

Thursday, December 21, 2017

2017: Cleveland HS Football Season in Review

Dating back to my days as a toddler, sports have always been a passion of mine. So much so that the ADIDAS acronym, “All Day I Dream About Sports”, wouldn’t be a far cry from my daily excerpt. And while working in sports in some capacity has always been a dream, this past fall brought me a unique opportunity to put a passion of mine at work: assist cleveland.com in their coverage of high school football in one of the largest (and most competitive) areas in all of Ohio: Cleveland. A hot bed for recruiting talent, high school football in northeast Ohio is a sight to behold, to say the least. And week after week, I got the opportunity to be in the middle of it. 

So with that, here is my recap of the 2017 season. 

Quick notes about the season (covered the following):
-11 games in seven different stadiums, including 20 teams (two teams twice) across five divisions: I, II, III, V, and VI.  

-Ohio’s Mr. Football (see below).

-At least 20 Division I recruits.

-Three record-breaking performances.

-Three games in which the winning team held their opponent to 6 points or less, including one shutout. Overall, the winning teams combined for an average margin of victory of 21.6 points (55-14, 44-6, & 36-0 being the largest margins). 

-The highest scoring team in the area - Wadsworth (on a night in which they tallied their highest scoring output of the season 61... see below).

-Seven teams that qualified for the State playoffs (St. Edward, Hudson, Benedictine, Wadsworth, Olmsted Falls, Bedford, and Bay).

-Three playoff games (one in each of the first three rounds) – Mansfield Senior at Bay (Division III, Region 10 Quarterfinal), Black River v. Wickliffe (Division V, Region 17 Semifinal), and Avon v. Olmsted Falls (Division II, Region 6 Final).

Now, here's a deeper look into some of the highlights from my coverage this season.

Last second sophomore (Week 1) – North Royalton 24, North Ridgeville 21
It's only fitting that the first game I covered came down to the final play. In a game that saw no offense through the first three quarters (North Royalton led 9-7), both teams exploded for a combined four touchdowns in the final six minutes of the game. Trailing 21-17 with just over two minutes to go, Bears' sophomore QB Joe Marousek ran the two-minute drill to perfection, capping the drive with a 12-yard TD pass to senior wideout Miles Strnad with 31 seconds left for the win.  

Just two years old, North Ridgeville's Ranger Stadium is one of the best in the area.

Big plays take center stage (Week 3) - No. 14 Bedford 44, Garfield Heights 22
A game full of highlights, Bedford's speed was on display throughout. The Bearcats scored on plays of 32, 25, 23, 5, 35, 28, and 102 yards. Senior wideout Davion 'Speedy' Johnson (5-6, 150 lbs., offer from Iowa State) led the way, catching nine passes for 132 yards and two touchdowns, while adding another 53 yards and a score on the ground. Meanwhile, senior RB (& LB) Kenny Wilkins (offers from Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kentucky, among others) was all over the field, including a highlight reel TD run (see play number 2 on top plays below). A 102-yard pick-6 by senior LB Kevin Brewer capped an impressive night for the Bearcats. 

Bearcat Stadium (Bedford, Ohio)

Special Teams on display (Week 4) – No. 9 Hudson 23, Broadview Heights 20
How often do you see three field goals made in a high school game? Let alone three attempts? Hudson’s senior kicker Grant Gonya was a perfect three-for-three on FG attempts, leading the Explorers to a 23-20 win over Brecksville-Broadview Heights. He connected on FG’s from 22, 39, and 36 yards out. His final kick made it a two possession game with just under three minutes to play to help secure the victory.

Hudson Memorial Stadium (Hudson, Ohio)

Best Defensive Performance (Week 5) - No. 25 Benedictine
Benedictine recorded seven takeaways (5 INT’s and 2 FR), including five in the first half, and a blocked punt for a score to dominate Columbus Bishop Watterson, 35-16. The Bengals held the Eagles to just 155 yards of offense (in which over 80 yards was gained on the Bengals’ JV squad). Senior DB Michael Lacey corralled three of the Bengals five INT’s.

Fun Note: Urban Meyer’s son, Nate, played wide receiver for Bishop Watterson.


Best Offensive Performance (Week 7) – QB Joey Baughman (Ohio's Mr. Football)
How often is a Division I wrestling recruit this dominate on the football field? Wadsworth senior QB Joey Baughman, a University of Virginia wrestling commit, was as good as advertised in week 7. He solidified himself as Ohio’s Mr. Football on a night in which he set a school record for passing yards in a game with 416 (tallied 490 yards and five TD’s in total) in a 61-28 win over North Royalton. He led the Grizzlies to scores on eight consecutive drives, including 31 points in the second quarter. The dual-threat QB proceeded to break the school record in style – a 74-yard TD strike to senior WR Mitchell Blackburn on the third play of the second half.  

Gibson Field at Serpentini Chevrolet Stadium (North Royalton, Ohio)
Fun Note: Baughman’s favorite target, Blackburn, also set a school record with 261 yards receiving on 12 catches.


Best Game (Week 9) – No. 18 Olmsted Falls at Avon Lake (OT)
Who would have thought for the second consecutive season that this game would come down to a two-point attempt? In 2016, Olmsted Falls scored with just seconds left, opted to go for two, and succeeded – stealing a win over its conference rival. Fast forward to this season, and this game saw a similar situation, with Avon Lake trying to return the favor. After Olmsted Falls scored on its initial overtime possession (taking a 21-14 lead), Avon Lake responded with a touchdown of their own. However, the Shoremen decided to go for two and the win, but an unsuccessful pass attempt gave the Bulldogs their second straight one-point win in the series (via two-point tries - one offensively and another defensively). And another instant classic.

Avon Lake Memorial Stadium provided the perfect setting for an instant classic (Avon Lake, Ohio). 
Fun Note: Olmsted Falls blocked a potential game winning 34-yard FG to send the game into OT. That was after Avon Lake had a TD called back because of a questionable personal foul call.


Bay rewrites history (Week 11, Playoffs) - Bay 28, Mansfield Senior 18
For the first time in program history, Bay won a home playoff game by defeating Mansfield Senior, 28-18, in the Division III, Region 10 quarterfinal. It was also the first time the Rockets reached 11 wins in a season (11-0). In a game in which Bay attempted only two passes, they racked up 321 yards on the ground (on 46 attempts), led by senior running back Trey Psota who tallied 202 yards and four scores. 

Bay gathers after making school history.

And finally, here are my TOP 25 plays from the season:



While there was a lot to take away from this season's grand adventure, covering high school football in Cleveland gave me a glimpse into the athletic prowess of Northeast Ohio. An area filled with passionate players, teams and communities unlike any other. And maybe more importantly, a stark reminder that chasing your dreams has to start somewhere.  


Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 15

Ten nuggets from the week
Jaguars WR Keelan Cole had 186 yards receiving against the Texans. Houston had 186 yards total...

Saints WR Michael Thomas joined Odell Beckham Jr. as the only players in NFL history to have at least 90 catches in each of their first two seasons (ESPN)...

Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey has caught more passes (73) than WR Randy Moss (69) did in his rookie season (ESPNNFL)...

Steelers WR Antonio Brown is the first player in NFL history to have 100+ receptions in five consecutive seasons (NFLResearch)...

Colts RB Frank Gore became only the second player in NFL history to record at least 1,000 scrimmage yards in 12 consecutive seasons, joining Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith (ESPN)... 

49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo is 3-0 as a starter (Niners were 1-10 before he took over), authoring two game-winning drives in as many games...

Broncos QB Brock Osweiler recorded the highest total QBR (99.2) of any QB in a game this season (ESPN)...

The Jaguars are on pace to lead the league in scoring defense, sacks, and takeaways this season. No team since 1970 (merger) has finished a season leading all three categories - not even the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens (NFLResearch)... 

For the first time since 2008 - Aaron Rodgers first season behind center - the Packers will not be in the playoffs...

Week 15 saw favorites go 14-0 straight up (no team was favored in KC vs. LAC or SEA vs. LAR). That's just the third week without an upset since the merger in 1970 (ESPNStats&Info).

Five Takeaways

5. Is the NFL (NFC) finding parody?
Taking the Patriots (9 straight playoff app) and Steelers (6 app in last 8 seasons) out of the equation, 2017 has seen a fresh blend of new teams vying for playoff spots. If the postseason were to start today, eight of the 12 teams that made the playoffs in 2016 would not be in this year's field (Dolphins, Raiders, Texans, Cowboys, Giants, Lions, Packers, and Seahawks). The Pats, Steelers, Chiefs, and Falcons are currently the only teams that own spots. But the Falcons are far from a lock (having to play the Saints & Panthers -- both 10-4), meaning we'd be guaranteed at least one new representative in the Super Bowl. Hopefully the AFC can say the same when all said and done. But for now, it's fun to see teams like the Jaguars and Rams - who haven't been to the postseason in years (since 2007 and 2004, respectively) - clinch spots and more than likely division titles. 

Image result for mark ingram saints vs jets 12/17
Ingram and the Saints are among a wide open NFC field (ESPN). 
4. How lucky can one franchise be?
Nothing is more irritating than one team getting every single break. Just about every single season. Especially when that team is a juggernaut. Dating back to the ‘Tuck Rule’ game (2001), the Patriots have been on the right side of luck. And it’s not even close. Even more so against one team in particular.

Two seasons ago, New England played Pittsburgh who was without Le'Veon Bell due to suspension. Last season, they played the Steelers twice. In the regular season, the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger (injured). Then, in the AFC title game, Bell left in the first quarter due to injury (after he was averaging 170 yards/game in the postseason). Enter Sunday, and what do you know… Antonio Brown – an MVP contender and best WR in the league – left the game due to injury in the first quarter. And for the cherry on top, the Pats escaped due to the absurdity that is the catch rule (see below), robbing the Steelers of a win. 

This is just a small sample in a long list of things that happen to go this team's way time and time again -- an annoyance of epic proportions. And that's not to mention Rob Gronkowski only being suspended one game after completely losing his mind with his blatant cheap-shot on Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White (driving his head into the ground) after an INT. Unbelievable.

3. TGIII emerging as MVP candidate
Last week, Antonio Brown was the candidate that had the best chance to dethrone Brady as the league's MVP. But just like his predecessor - Carson Wentz - injury has doomed that scenario. Time for a new player to enter the discussion: TGIII.

In the off-season, newly acquired HC Sean McVay made it an emphasis to get Todd Gurley more involved in the offense in 2017. It was obvious after the back saw his production drastically decline from year one to year two. Gurley has responded by having the best season of his career, ranking first in rushing TD's (13) and scrimmage TD's (17), second in scrimmage yards (1,817), third in rushing yards (1,187) and second among running backs in receiving yards (630, NFL Research). He trails Le'Veon Bell by 32 scrimmage yards despite 76 fewer touches. On Sunday, the third-year back accounted for 181 total yards - 153 rushing & 28 receiving - and four touchdowns, while playing just nine second half snaps in the Rams, 42-7, blowout victory over the Seahawks. Gurley has been the engine behind the Rams resurgence, and a key reason LA is on track to host a playoff game for the first time since 1993. He deserves to be in the MVP discussion. 

Image result for todd gurley vs seahawks 12/17
Gurley is leading a charge the Rams haven't seen since the greatest show on turf (ocregister.com).

Fun Fact: The Rams are 8-0 when Gurley touches the ball 20-plus times and 2-4 when he fails to reach that number (NFLResearch). 

2. NFL officiating is too technical
This is getting ridiculous. What is a catch anymore? It seems to be a question noone clearly understands, especially fans. And the issue came full circle again on Sunday, when Jesse James of the Pittsburgh Steelers had a key TD overturned (with 28 seconds left) because of arguably the most nonsensical rule in sports (catch rule), which determined that James didn’t complete the process of a catch.

First off, he did. If you watch the play, James clearly possesses the ball (firmly) with two hands. His knee hits the ground (which the rule states: the receiver has to survive the initial contact with the ground... His initial contact with the ground was his knee hitting the ground while having full possession of the ball). He then proceeds to make ‘a football move’ by reaching the ball across the goal line. As he reaches across the plane of the end zone, the ball becomes ‘loose’, but at that point he has already scored. Therefore, it should have been a catch and score. After all, it was a touchdown to the entire football world, until the technicalities of an obscure rule came into play, which completely penalizes athletes trying to make great plays (in this case James). 


What’s even crazier is that it was called a touchdown on the field. When a play is under review, if there is not sufficient video evidence to overturn the call – which in this case there wasn’t – nine times out of ten, the play stands as called on the field. Unfortunately, not this time (in large part because of their opponent), and it cost the Steelers home-field throughout the postseason. It also put a damper on what was an amazing game.

Calls (and rules) like this ruin the game of football as a whole. Just ask Dez.

Shame on the NFL for not fixing this rule by now. 

1. Changing of the guard in the west
Sean McVay's turnaround in Los Angeles continues to turn heads. On Sunday, he added another accolade to his impressive start, becoming the youngest head coach since 1937 (Milan Creigton, Chicago Cardinals) to win 10 games in his first season at the helm (ramswire). In addition, he may have solidified himself as Coach of the Year as the Rams dismantled a hapless Seahawks squad (42-7) in front of the 12's, all but assuring the division crown (their first since 2003). It was a dominating performance, but more importantly a bold statement: the Rams are here to stay. 

In the last ten seasons, the Rams have lived in the NFC West cellar, finishing either last (six times) or 3rd (three times) in nine of those ten. Now, with one more win, they can not only reverse their fortunes with a division title, but match their entire win total from the last two seasons combined (11). It finally looks like this team is heading in the right direction behind a bright coach and young core led by the backfield duo of QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley - the key tokens behind the number one scoring offense in the league (31.3 points/per).   

With the Seahawks' legion of boom disintegrating, the Cardinals aging, and the 49ers in the midst of a rebuild, the Rams could be the face of the West for years to come.  

Fun Fact: The Rams have the third longest playoff drought in the NFL (13 seasons), and will all but clinch a berth in week 16, leaving only the Browns (15) and Bills (18) with longer active streaks. 

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 14

Image result for best photo from bills colts snow
Playing in a winter wonderland? Bills-Colts fulfilled every childhood's dream - or at least mine - by playing in a snow storm (Getty Images).

Ten nuggets from the week
The Cleveland Browns infamy continues, becoming the first franchise to begin consecutive seasons 0-13. Hue Jackson is now 1-28 as its head coach…

The Pittsburgh Steelers have never lost at home when leading by 14 at any point in the game in franchise history. They are now 216-0-2 in those games…

The Bills and Colts combined for 97 rush attempts (while playing in a snow storm) – the most in a game since 1981 (NFL Research)…

Seahawks QB Russell Wilson connected with Paul Richardson (61 yards) and Tyler Lockett (74 yards) for scores in the fourth quarter – giving him an NFL record 17 TD’s in the fourth quarter this season (Elias)…

Browns WR Josh Gordon caught his first TD pass since week 15 of 2013 – 1,456 days. Just in case you’re wondering, Jason Campbell was the QB (ESPN)…

With their ninth win, Jaguars linebacker Paul Posluszny – playing in his 11th season – clinched his first winning season as a pro…

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 506 yards against the Ravens, giving him the most games (3) with 500+ passing yards in NFL history…

Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald passed Randy Moss for third on the all-time receiving yards list. He also leads the NFC in receptions with 87…

Patriots QB Tom Brady fell to 7-9 all-time in Miami, and has four of his last five…

Dolphins CB Xavien Howard had two interceptions of Brady, giving him four in his last two games. He didn’t have any in his first 18 career games (NFL Research).

Five Takeaways

5. Offensive explosion? Not in this rivalry, right?
Coming into Sunday, four out of the last five contests between Baltimore and Pittsburgh had been decided by one score. Week 14 was no different… except for the score. For two teams that pride themselves on having tough defenses, neither showed up on Sunday, as the two combined to score 77 points (39-38) – the most in the history of their storied rivalry – and tally 958 total yards. Up until this game, the Ravens had yet to allow a 300-yard passer this season. Big Ben erupted for 506 (on 66 pass attempts!). Per usual, Antonio Brown was the main beneficiary, hauling in 11 for 213 yards. Meanwhile, the Ravens put up 413 yards of total offense (far more than their season avg. of 288.5). It seems that both offenses are starting to gain momentum at just the right time. Now… if only their defenses could get back on track. They'll need to in order to make a run. 

Fun Fact: For the second consecutive season, the Steelers clinched the AFC North against the Ravens… on a game winning drive.

4. The Jaguars are legitimate contenders in the AFC
Wait. The team that just clinched their first winning season in a decade (since 2007)?

Don’t look now but three out of the last four teams to lead the league in scoring defense have made it to the Super Bowl (albeit with QB’s named Brady and Wilson). The Jaguars lead the league in that category, allowing just 15.5 points to opposing offenses. Furthermore, they are top-5 in just about every defensive statistical category, most notably leading the NFL in pass defense (174.2 YPG), sacks (47), & takeaways (30). Yes, Blake Bortles is still the man behind center, but if there has been a recipe for success, it has been leaning on their top-ranked running game (averaging 149.9) and their great defense (+14 in turnover margin). So far, it has led to nine wins, including Sunday’s statement win over NFC power Seattle.

Will Bortles have to do more in the playoffs? Absolutely. Which is a scary thought to Jags fans. But right now, this defense (and running game) is playing with a chip on its shoulder, and has the potential to give other teams fits in the postseason.

Image result for jaguars vs seahawks december 10 2017
The Jaguars are quietly becoming contenders in the AFC (firstcoastnews.com).
Fun Fact: The Jaguars have tripled their win total from a season ago, including wins over perennial playoff powers – Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Seattle.

3. Rivers/LA surging
Philip Rivers is leading an impressive second half charge for the Bolts. And it has them right in the middle of the playoff (and division) race. After starting the season 0-4, the Chargers have won seven of their last nine, with Rivers being the catalyst. In his last four games (all wins), the great competitor is 96-of-139 (69%) for 1,348 yards (337 avg.) and eight touchdowns (no INTs). He has ignited and elevated a team that was once an afterthought. Backed by an improving defense, LA has won their last four by an average margin of victory of 19.5 points.

This is a team that has all the pieces to make a deep run come January: a franchise QB, star playmakers (Keenan Allen, Melvin Gordon) with a supporting cast, a dynamic pass rush (Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram), and a formidable secondary. And don’t think it’s not in the back of Rivers’ mind. One thing that has eluded his illustrious career: playing in the Super Bowl.

The quest begins this Saturday when they travel to Kansas City for a huge AFC West showdown.

Fun Fact: Philip Rivers is the third QB in NFL history to pass for at least 3,500 yards in ten consecutive seasons, joining Peyton Manning and Drew Brees (Schefter).

2. Phins/Gase make statement
Entering Monday night, primetime had been disastrous for the Dolphins this season (outscored 112-45 in three games). A matchup with the heavily favored Pats was bound to add to the misery. Instead, donning the best throwback uniforms in the NFL (or all of sports for that matter), the Phins played inspired football – much like that of the ’72 team – taking it to their arch nemesis from New England. From the opening kickoff, the Dolphins played with an attitude, thoroughly outplaying the Pats in every facet of a convincing win.

Here’s an inside look into just how dominant the Dolphins were:
- The Phins held the Patriots to just two total yards in the first quarter, the lowest the team had in any first quarter since 1998, when they had two yards against the… Dolphins.

- New England was 0-for-11 on third downs – the first time in Brady’s career that he failed to convert a third down in a game – and the first time the Pats failed to convert since 1991, when they went 0-for-6 against the Phoenix Cardinals (ESPN).  

- The Pats were held to just 248 yards of offense (well below their season avg. of 413.2), including 25 yards on the ground, and it would have been worse if it weren’t for garbage time.

- Brady was a meager 24-of-43 (55%) for 233 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INT’s - the only game this season he's thrown multiple picks.

- Dolphins QB Jay Cutler picked apart the Patriots secondary, going 25-of-38 (65.7%) for 263 yards and 3 TD’s, while RB Kenyan Drake (making just his second start) shredded the opposition by tallying 193 yards on 30 touches.

Image result for miami dolphins vs patriots december 11 kenyan drake
Behind Landry's 2 TD's and a suffocating D, the Phins shocked the Pats on MNF (PalmBeachPost).
For what has been a disappointing season in South Beach, this was a performance that gives Dolphins fans hope for the future. It was a brand of football not seen all season, and you could argue even all of last season. It was a sign that when players buy into Gase’s philosophy, it can lead to promising results. Now it’s just a matter of consistency.

Fun Fact: This season, the Dolphins have defeated both representatives from last year’s Super Bowl (Atlanta, New England).

1. AB for MVP
Everyone wants to designate one QB or another for this season’s MVP – Wentz (before injury), Wilson, or Brady. It should come as no surprise, as nine out of the last ten players to win the league’s MVP have been signal callers (the lone exception being RB Adrian Peterson in 2012). And while each have had remarkable seasons, the award often overlooks deserving players at other positions.

Enter Steelers WR Antonio Brown.

   AB by the Numbers
REC 99 1st
YARDS 1,509 1st
TD 9 2nd
YPG 116.1 1st
  
In his last four contests (all wins), Brown has tallied a staggering 39 catches for 627 yards (156.8) and six scores. More importantly, he has come through with the game on the line, setting up three consecutive game-winning drives with his sure hands and athletic prowess along the sideline. Diving further, the receiver has just two drops in 160 targets. TWO. 

Yes, the NFL is a QB driven league, but it’s time to give credence to players dominating the game outside of the QB position.

Brown deserves to be the league's MVP - at the least in the discussion.

Fun Fact: A wide receiver has never won the NFL MVP.

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 13

Ten nuggets from week 13
No team in NFL history has had a worse 28-game stretch (1-27) than the Cleveland Browns (FoxSports). They are 4-45 since Thanksgiving 2014…

The Miami Dolphins recorded two safeties in the same game for the first time in franchise history…

The Giants failed to score 30 points during the entirety of Ben McAdoo’s tenure (28 games) with the team. Only the Bears (35) and the Browns (39) have longer active streaks (Elias)… 

Colts RB Frank Gore moved to fifth on the NFL’s all-time rushing list, passing Hall of Famers LT and Jerome Bettis (ESPN)…

Chiefs QB Alex Smith is the first player in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) with a 70-yard completion and a 70-yard rush in the same game (Elias)…

Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein connected on four field goals, giving him a staggering 36 FG’s this season, the most by any player in NFL history through the season’s first 12 games (NFL.com). The NFL record for a season is 44…

Chargers WR Keenan Allen is the first player in NFL history to have at least 10 catches, 100 receiving yards, and a TD reception in three consecutive games (NFL)…

Vikings QB Case Keenum went 18-of-18 on passes thrown between the painted field numbers, the most attempts without an incompletion since it was first tracked in 2006 (Schefter). He was also perfect in completing passes in the second half (12-of-12)…

Bears Tarik Cohen became the first rookie to score a rushing, receiving, passing and punt return TD in a single season since Gale Sayers (also a Chicago Bear) in 1965 (NFL)... 

Saints rookie sensation Alvin Kamara has scored a touchdown in six straight games and gone over 100 yards from scrimmage in five straight. 

Five Takeaways

5. Big Ben owns Ohio
Ever since he was drafted 11th overall in 2004 by the Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger has dominated his division rivals in Ohio. A homer himself having played high school (Findlay) and college (Miami OH) football in the state, it should come as no surprise. After Monday night’s win in Cincinnati, the beefy signal caller has lost just four games (25-4) in Ohio throughout his 13-year career – two each in Cleveland and Cincy. He has amassed a staggering record of 45-9 (83%) against his AFC North counterparts.

Fun Fact: Roethlisberger has thrown for 12,407 yards and 75 TD’s against the Browns and Bengals in his career, just under a quarter of his career total (50,052). 

4. Mile high mess
After starting the season 3-1, the Broncos have lost eight straight. From suspensions (Talib) to poor play, Denver is reeling under first-year head coach Vance Joseph. A major concern is the play behind center. On Sunday, Trevor Siemian was a porous 19-of-41 (46%) for 200 yards, zero TD’s and three interceptions. It’s shocking he was never pulled. But then again, the backups are ineffective twin towers, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. All three have more interceptions than touchdowns (combined 14 TD to 18 INT) and none have been able to sustain [even minor] success. To make matters worse, in their last six games, Denver has given up a league-worst 32.8 points per game. A season after ranking fourth in scoring defense (18.6), they rank 31st (26.3) in ‘17. For one of the most successful franchises in the league, this season has been a rough outlier for Elway and co. One that can't end soon enough.

Fun Fact: With Sunday's loss to Miami, it clinched just the third losing season since 2000 in Denver.     

3. The best worst team in the league
The Tennessee Titans are 8-4, sitting atop the AFC South. It certainly doesn’t feel like it as evidenced by their mediocre offense and defense – ranked 18th in both scoring offense (22.2) & defense (23.5). They have defined winning ugly, especially as of late, winning their last five (out of six) games by a combined 25 points (5 per). That includes a three-point overtime win against the winless Browns, a four-point last second win against the 3-8 Colts, and a four-point comeback victory over (then) 3-5 Cincinnati. Nothing this team does is exciting, but they continue to find ways to win games, which is ultimately the only stat that matters.

Image result for tennessee titans
In what seems like a lousy AFC, the Titans are taking advantage (Titansized.com).
A favorable schedule never hurts: six of their eight wins are against teams with a combined record of 19-40 (Colts twice). Their next two? The 5-7 Cardinals and 2-10 Niners. It hasn’t been pretty, but the Titans are on the brink of making the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons.  

2. The Bay has found its franchise QB
Jimmy Garoppolo shined in his debut for the 49ers, staking his claim as a franchise quarterback. He finished 26-of-37 passing for a career high 293 yards, capturing just the second win for the Niners this season (in his first start). The most impressive part of the signal callers’ performance is that he did it with second and third-string receivers - Marquise Goodwin and rookie Trent Taylor were the leading pass catchers. And when it counted (down two with over five min to go) – just as great one’s do – Garoppolo led a 14-play, 86-yard drive to set up a game-winning FG with four seconds left. Sure, the win was great. But better yet, the Niners have found a long-term solution under center. A player Kyle Shanahan can groom and build around for years to come.

1. How much is too much?
There is rivalries, and then there is Pittsburgh-Cincinnati. And nothing is fiercer than when the two meet, especially as of late. And it could be argued that Monday was the worst encounter to date. Since 2015, no matchup has featured more extracurricular penalties than Bengals-Steelers: they have combined for 25 unsportsmanlike conduct, unnecessary roughness, roughing the passer, and taunting penalties in that span (NFL research) - by far the most of any matchup. In Monday night’s primetime clash, the teams combined for six such penalties (20 penalties for 239 yards in all), including a blindside hit by JuJu Smith-Schuster on the much maligned Vontaze Burfict (knocking him out of the game) and Bengals safety George Iloka’s retaliation on Antonio Brown in the end zone (a ball in which Brown caught for a TD). Those two plays in particular were the aftermath to an already brutal war of attrition.

Image result for steelers bengals
The Steelers-Bengals rivalry seems to worsen with each matchup (Si.com).
The first quarter saw a scary scene when Pittsburgh’s linebacker Ryan Shazier led with his helmet on a tackle and instantly fell to the turf having to be carted off (and transported to the hospital). A couple drives later, rookie RB Joe Mixon left the game (for concussion protocol) on a vicious hit. 

It’s always fun when two teams of this nature compete at such a high level. But this rivalry is trending well beyond the game, often times beyond the boundary. And it’s costing both teams significantly. 

Sunday, December 3, 2017

The Resolution to the Great Debate: Expansion

Ohio State or Alabama?

A two-loss conference champion or a one-loss powerhouse?

Two polarizing teams, only one spot.

For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, history was to be made regardless of the decision: select a two-loss conference champion (OSU) or select two teams from the same conference (SEC - Georgia & Bama).

The committee chose the latter, and for the second consecutive season snubbed a two-loss BIG Ten champion for a one-loss at large. And now the fallout begins.

Which team deserved to make the College Football Playoff? 

OHIO STATE
ALABAMA
FPI Rank
2nd
1st
Chance to Make CFP<<
40%
28%
Strength of Record Rank
7th
4th
Strength of Schedule Rank
50th
46th
Conference Champ?
Yes
No
Ranked Wins
vs 4 Wisc, 9 PSU, 16 MSU
17 LSU, 25 Fresno
Losses
3 OU, at Iowa
at 2 Auburn
>>According to FiveThirtyEight (ESPN.com)

Obviously, it could be argued that both deserved a spot.

While Ohio State got throttled by both Oklahoma (at home) and a 7-5 Iowa squad (55-24), the Buckeyes captured the BIG Ten title – arguably the best conference in the country – including two top-5 wins over Penn State and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, Alabama failed to win (or even play for) its conference title, but was still dominant in the regular season – outscoring opponents 455-112 in their 11 victories, including 293-72 in SEC play. The Crimson Tide’s lone loss came at the hands of its bitter rival Auburn (the last week of the season) – a team that was ranked no. 2 in week 14 before its conference championship loss to Georgia.

Ultimately the committee felt that Bama deserved the final spot, creating a debate that will go on for weeks. Maybe Ohio State's 31-0 loss in last year's playoff to Clemson played into it. But regardless of where you stand, it's a situation that seems destined for change.  

The resolution: expansion. 

If five conferences have been given the "Power Five" designation, should the victor from each not get a shot at the national title? Just as March Madness sees its conference champions punch automatic tickets to the big dance (albeit on a larger scale), the CFP should follow suit with an 8-team playoff. 

Here's the breakdown:
- Each Power Five conference champion gets an automatic berth - seeded based on the final CFP rankings.
- Three at-large berths, including the highest ranked non-power five team. 

Here's what this year would look like:

More teams would create more hysteria in the college football playoffs.
The gift that keeps on giving? The best part about this layout would be that the No. 4 team would play No. 5 - in this case Bama-Ohio State, the two that made up this year's great debate. 

And remember. Last season saw Penn State - who many thought should have had a shot in the 4-team field - play USC in the Rose Bowl in the most entertaining game of the post-season. 

In the illustration above, most would argue a team like UCF wouldn't stand a chance against Clemson, but the same people argued Boise State didn't have a chance against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. It would allow that slim chance to hop on board a Cinderella and bring a once in a lifetime experience to a lesser known fan-base. 

College football is one of the most exciting sports in all of America. Expanding the playoff field to eight would make it that much better.