NBA Finals: The Great Equalizer

It may be a simple arc surrounding the paint but the meaning is much deeper - three points instead of two.

Gone are the days of big men dominating. Gone are the days of a Center being a 6’10+ 240+ bruiser inside or a Power Forward being a double-double machine. Certainly they still exist but not to the extent of past times. Instead, the game is being modernized and these spots are being filled with versatile, athletic bigs who can stretch the floor and knock down the long range jumper. So gone are the days of teams courting a big man lineup to crash the boards and control the paint. Instead, the league is turning to a ‘small ball’ culture, all thanks to a team that has made a living behind the arc. And ever since their title run from a year ago, it has become the blueprint to sustaining success.

As we look forward to the finals, many have their thoughts on what it will take to win the title. For me, it comes down to one concept: winning the three-point battle (via efficiency). Not only in making threes but in guarding the three. Forget about the edge on the boards. Forget about the free throw battle. Forget about any other analytical stat you want to throw into the equation. These are certainly still important, but the Dubs and Cavs have succeeded in these playoffs thanks in large part to one component – the three.

Cleveland set an NBA single-game record by knocking down 25 against Atlanta in round two. They’ve hit an impressive league high 43.4% from deep through three rounds. On the contrary, the Warriors rode Klay Thompson’s NBA single-game post-season record of 11 triples to a pivotal game 6 win against OKC – a game in which they connected on 21 threes to the Thunder’s mere 3. Steph Curry answered with 7 of his own in the deciding clincher at home (Thompson added 6). The Dubs were at their best with elimination on the line going 31 of 62 in the final two games of the series! Take away the three and Oklahoma City most certainly would have won the series.

Curry's effectiveness from beyond the arc could be the difference in the Finals

There isn’t a better team in NBA history at stroking the trey than Golden State as they buried 1,077 in the regular season. Steph Curry, as we all know leads the way. He obliterated his own record for three-pointers in a season (originally 286 in ‘15) by hitting 402 in 2016. To put that in perspective, the Milwaukee Bucks, the worst three point shooting team in the league, made 440 threes. Klay added a notable 276. You guard one, and the other answers. Klay is off and Curry is on. If they’re both off, all it takes is one three to go through (i.e. NBA Jam), and just like that they’re on fire. Just when you think you’re containing them, a splash of the net later and you find yourself in a hole.

Take the following scenario for instance. At one point during the season, Curry had hit a ridiculous 35 of 52 threes from long range (between 28-50 feet). In turn, if a player goes 100% on the same amount of field goals (52) from two point range, Curry would still outscore them by a point (35*3=105, 52*2=104). Granted, no one hits three’s at the rate of Curry, but it still makes for an interesting thought. And that’s what makes the Warriors and the three point shot so dangerous. A bad half of basketball can be erased by a hot shooting quarter or in this case, a Curry flurry.

And don’t forget about the Cavs. Golden State may have supplanted the record for threes in a series with 90 (seven games), but the Cavs knocked down 77 in its four-game sweep of Atlanta! They have taken 61 fewer threes than the Warriors so far this postseason, yet trail them by only 10 in the made category. LeBron James is using the weapons at his disposal, as fifty-nine of his assists have been three-pointers, easily the playoff leader. Cleveland has been preparing all playoffs by hoisting threes. Just as the Dubs capitalize from deep to change momentum, the Cavs have the ammunition to do the same, as J.R. Smith, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love rank in the top 10 in triples made this postseason (Smith trails only Thompson).

Irving will be the X-factor a year after sitting out all but one game in the finals

I can't say I have a projection on who will win this series (although I will most certainly be rooting for the Cavs being a lifetime Ohioan), as I am not the biggest of NBA fans, nor do I follow it all that exclusively. But to me, the three-point shot is the great equalizer. The momentum killer. The game changer. And it comes as no surprise that the number 1 and 2 ranked teams in made 3-point field goals in both the regular season and post-season (Warriors #1 and Cavs #2 in both), are now vying for the title. Is this the sign of the times? Maybe, but if this means anything, the winner of the three ball will be the NBA Champion.

After all…Three is greater than two. Just ask LeBron.