2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 13

Week 13 food for thought

The receptions leader since week 6? RB Christian McCaffrey - 53.

The rushing leader since week 12? Undrafted rookie RB Phillip Lindsay - 267 yards. 

Five takeaways 

5. Wait… How?

If you were to guess which team has the number one offense (in terms of yards) through 13 weeks, who would you guess?

LA Rams? Nope.

New Orleans? Try again.

Kansas City? Negative.

Pittsburgh? Wrong again.

The answer… the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are averaging a league-leading 443 yards of offense per game. The problem? A combination of turnovers (30, most in the NFL) and a porous defense (ranked 27^th in yards allowed and 30^th in points allowed). In other words, it pays to take care of the ball and have at the least a capable defense.

4. Another wasted year?

The Packers began the season with high hopes, including Super Bowl aspirations behind the arm of one of the game’s best. Those expectations have quickly vanished in the last couple of weeks, going from bad to worse, and culminating Sunday in an embarrassing home loss to the then 2-9 Cardinals. It was the first loss at home this season, and the exclamation point to the exit door for HC Mike McCarthy, which was inevitable as the season wore on, as he and Rodgers never saw eye-to-eye.

It's been a frustrating year for Rodgers and the Packers (ProFootballTalk). 

This season has to leave Green Bay fans scratching their heads after what seems to be yet another wasted year of Aaron Rodgers' prime.

3. Winning unconventionally.

The Miami Dolphins have been inconsistent all season, especially on the offensive side of the ball (ranked 29th). Yet, with four weeks remaining, they remain in the AFC playoff hunt at 6-6. On Sunday against the Bills, the Phins were out-gained 415-175, but still found a way to win, 21-17.

It’s nothing new, as back in week 3, the Raiders ran 35 more plays (74-39) and possessed the ball 17 more minutes (38:31-21:29) than the hosts, but the Dolphins still won 28-20. In week 9 against the Jets, Miami managed a mere seven first downs (to the Jets 15), were out-gained 282-168, but thanks to four interceptions and a defensive TD they were able to win 13-6. As bad as the defense has been (ranked 29th), their ability to create turnovers (second to only the Bears with 19 interceptions) has kept them in games and given them chances to win.

2. Cowboys will win the NFC East.

Winners of four straight, America’s team is peaking at just the right time. Behind one of the best defensive efforts of the season, the Cowboys snapped the Saints 10-game win streak while holding them to a season-low in both yards (176) and points (10). Drew Brees and Co. entered the game averaging 37.3 points per outing. While the defense ranks among the best – fifth in total yards allowed (318.2) and second in points allowed per game (18.6) – the Cowboys offense has also picked up the slack during their win streak. A main reason is the improved play of the QB under center. 

After much scrutiny early on, Prescott has turned the page in the second half (heavy.com). 

Since acquiring WR Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott has been rejuvenated:

Prior to Cooper – Comp Pct: 62.1 percent, Pass YPG: 202.4, TD-INT: 8-4, Passer rating: 87.4

After acquisition – Comp Pct: 72.8 percent, Pass YPG: 251.6, TD-INT: 6-1, Passer rating: 105.1

With a showdown with the Eagles on the horizon, Dallas can all but clinch the NFC East with a win -  something that seems inevitable with each passing week. 

1. Pat Mahomes = MVP

As the season has progressed, the MVP race has remained steady between three players: Saints QB Drew Brees, Rams RB Todd Gurley, and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. All three represent the linchpin behind their respective high-octane offenses. Gurley has taken the Rams offense to new heights (league-leading 1,175 yards rushing and 15 TDs, adding 46 catches for 474 yards and 4 TDs), but a non-QB hasn’t won the award since 2012, with 10 of the last 11 having gone to a signal caller. And while Brees has completed a league-best three-fourths of his passes (75.5 percent) in the midst of an impressive 30-3 TD-INT ratio, Mahomes has been the more exciting player showcasing his rare athleticism.

Mahomes is enjoying one of the best seasons in just his first year under center (chiefs.com)

The first-year Chiefs signal caller (second-year pro) ranks first in touchdowns (41), QBR (85.5), & Yards per Attempt (9.15), and second in yards (3,923). He has seven games this season with 4+ passing TDs in a game, trailing only Peyton Manning (who had 9 such games in 2013) for most all-time (NFLResearch). To put that into perspective: since 2004, the Bills, Panthers, Bears, and Titans have each tallied 4+ passing TDs in a game a total of seven times.

What might be most impressive is that he has done it in his first season under center. Barring unforeseen circumstances, Mahomes will be the league MVP.