Tuesday, December 11, 2018

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 14

Historic performances from Week 14:

Entering Thursday Night’s tilt with Jacksonville, Tennessee’s Derek Henry was averaging 10.7 carries and 39.5 yards per game. His season high for yards in a game was 58. All he did was explode for a franchise record 238 yards and four TDs on 17 carries, including becoming the second player in NFL history with a 99-yard TD run (Dorsett). He is also broke the record for fewest carries (17) in a game with 200+ rush yards & 4+ rush TDs in the Super Bowl era (NFLResearch).

Amari Cooper continues to turn his season around after his trade to the Cowboys. On Sunday, he became the first player in NFL history with three go-ahead receiving TDs in the fourth quarter/OT of the same game (ESPNStats&Info). He is the third Cowboys player – joining Michael Irvin (1992) and Frank Clarke (1962) – with 200 receiving yards and 3 rec TDs in the same game (ESPN).

Fun Fact: Sunday marked the first time in team history the Cowboys had a 400-yard passer, 200-yard receiver and 100-yard rusher in the same game (ESPNStats&Info).

Five takeaways

5. Stop overpaying QBs!
Yes quarterbacks are the most important piece of putting together a championship roster. And yes, the NFL is a QB driven league. But at what cost? Of the QBs earning the highest salaries in 2018, only one is currently in the playoff hunt.

It has been a rough season for the highest paid QBs (NFLResearch).
4. Panthers & Steelers heading in wrong direction.
What has happened to Carolina? Once sitting at 6-2, the Panthers have lost five in a row after their loss to Cleveland on Sunday and find themselves on the outside looking in for a spot in the postseason. QB Cam Newton hasn’t been the same since his hot start, with a TD-INT ratio of 9-8 during the losing streak. The defense hasn’t helped matters, surrendering an average of 30.4 points in its last five, including 365.2 yards per game (6.4 yards/play). It doesn’t get any easier for the Panthers, as two of their final three games are against the top-seeded Saints. Once a lock for a playoff berth, it’s going to be tough for Carolina to break through as a wildcard.

Meanwhile, it hasn’t been much better in the Steel city, where the Steelers have lost three in a row, including a 24-21 setback to the lowly Raiders this past Sunday. It seems to happen every season with this team – losing to less talented competition. There is absolutely no reason they should have lost to an Oakland team that came in having lost eight of its last nine games. A porous defense and turnovers have been the main culprits for the black and yellow, surrendering 344.3 yards per game in its last three, while having a (-5) turnover differential. Much like Carolina, it doesn’t get any easier, as the Steelers welcome New England to town this week – a team they’ve had little success against in the past (have lost five in a row and nine out of the last 11) – before they travel to New Orleans in Week 16. The next two weeks will decide if we can cast the Steelers as contenders or pretenders.   

3. Seahawks soaring... with running game.
Winners of four straight (and eight of 11), Seattle continues to inch closer to locking up its sixth playoff berth in the last seven seasons. Considered an afterthought in the preseason, the Hawks are finding success with an old school philosophy -- running the football. The Seahawks boast the number one rush offense (avg. 153.8 yards per game), and are running the ball on over 50 percent of offensive plays (highest rate in the league). Of their 64 plays on Monday night, they ran the ball 65.6 percent of the time (42) for 214 yards. Their stable of young backs – Chris Carson (179 for 794), Mike Davis (93 for 418), & Rashaad Penny (81 for 413) – provide a dynamic trio with all three capable of carrying the load. And it’s the perfect recipe for winning games (or at least keeping them close) late in the season, especially in colder weather.

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Chris Carson heads the league's number one rushing offense (sportingnews). 
There can’t be many teams that want to see the Hawks come playoff time. Not to mention, they have one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league in Russell Wilson (ranks fourth in passing TDs with 29), who has big time game experience, including a Super Bowl ring.

Fun Fact: In 10 of its 13 games this season, Seattle has rushed for at least 100 yards – tied for most in the league (NFLResearch).

2. Bears make statement.
In a primetime matchup against the league’s number two scoring offense, the Chicago defense put the rest of the league on notice with yet another dominant performance. They held the high-octane Rams – a team that entered the night having scored 30 or more points in 10 of its 12 games – to six points. MVP candidate Todd Gurley totaled just 28 yards on 11 carries, while Jared Goff had the worst start of his career, completing a mere 45 percent of his passes (20/44) for 180 yards and four interceptions. For the Bears, it was nothing new for a defense that ranks first in takeaways with 34 (including a league-best 25 INTs), third in total defense, and fourth in sacks (40).

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Mack continues to impact an elite Bears defense (newsweek). 
While the defense continues to impress, it’s the offense (ranked 22nd) that needs to improve in order for the Bears to be contenders. As we saw last year with the Jaguars, it takes more than a top defense to make a run. If the Bears have any intentions of playing deep into January, it starts and ends with the quarterback play of Trubisky.

Fun Fact: The Bears have more wins this season (9), than their last two seasons combined (8). It marks their first winning season since 2012.

1. Miracle in Miami.
For most NFL fans, few things are better than seeing the Patriots lose. It’s even sweeter when it comes at the hands of an underdog in dramatic fashion (i.e. the Eagles in last season’s Super Bowl or the Giants in SB XLII). On Sunday, the Dolphins followed suit with one of the greatest plays in NFL history.

Trailing by five with seven seconds to go from their own 31-yard line, the Dolphins had a 0.1 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN metrics. What happened next was one of the most improbable plays of all-time. QB Ryan Tannehill dropped back and found Kenny Stills across the middle at the 45. Stills then lateraled to Devante Parker, who ran toward midfield and pitched it to Kenyan Drake who weaved his way 52 yards through the remaining Pats defense to stun the visitors and send the crowd (& rest of the NFL community) into a frenzy. It was the longest play from scrimmage to win a game with no time remaining in the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl era.


It was all-timer, and even sweeter that it came at the expense of division rival New England. For yet another season, Tom Brady and the Patriots couldn’t solve the riddle -- defeating the Dolphins in Miami (they've lost five out of the last six in South beach). It has become a place of horrors - Brady is now 7-10 all-time as a starter in Miami. But the blame for Sunday’s loss has to be on head coach Bill Belichick. Why in the world would he put Rob Gronkowski as his last line of defense? No quarterback outside of Mahomes is making a 75-yard heave to the end zone. Especially not Tannehill who is not even at 100 percent. Not to mention how fragile and less athletic Gronk has become throughout the course of this season.

Regardless, the Phins capitalized with the best play this season, and one that will go down in franchise history for a long, long time. 

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 13


Week 13 food for thought
The receptions leader since week 6? RB Christian McCaffrey - 53.
The rushing leader since week 12? Undrafted rookie RB Phillip Lindsay - 267 yards. 

Five takeaways 

5. Wait… How?
If you were to guess which team has the number one offense (in terms of yards) through 13 weeks, who would you guess?
LA Rams? Nope.
New Orleans? Try again.
Kansas City? Negative.
Pittsburgh? Wrong again.

The answer… the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are averaging a league-leading 443 yards of offense per game. The problem? A combination of turnovers (30, most in the NFL) and a porous defense (ranked 27th in yards allowed and 30th in points allowed). In other words, it pays to take care of the ball and have at the least a capable defense.

4. Another wasted year?
The Packers began the season with high hopes, including Super Bowl aspirations behind the arm of one of the game’s best. Those expectations have quickly vanished in the last couple of weeks, going from bad to worse, and culminating Sunday in an embarrassing home loss to the then 2-9 Cardinals. It was the first loss at home this season, and the exclamation point to the exit door for HC Mike McCarthy, which was inevitable as the season wore on, as he and Rodgers never saw eye-to-eye.

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It's been a frustrating year for Rodgers and the Packers (ProFootballTalk). 
This season has to leave Green Bay fans scratching their heads after what seems to be yet another wasted year of Aaron Rodgers' prime.

3. Winning unconventionally.
The Miami Dolphins have been inconsistent all season, especially on the offensive side of the ball (ranked 29th). Yet, with four weeks remaining, they remain in the AFC playoff hunt at 6-6. On Sunday against the Bills, the Phins were out-gained 415-175, but still found a way to win, 21-17.

It’s nothing new, as back in week 3, the Raiders ran 35 more plays (74-39) and possessed the ball 17 more minutes (38:31-21:29) than the hosts, but the Dolphins still won 28-20. In week 9 against the Jets, Miami managed a mere seven first downs (to the Jets 15), were out-gained 282-168, but thanks to four interceptions and a defensive TD they were able to win 13-6. As bad as the defense has been (ranked 29th), their ability to create turnovers (second to only the Bears with 19 interceptions) has kept them in games and given them chances to win.

2. Cowboys will win the NFC East.
Winners of four straight, America’s team is peaking at just the right time. Behind one of the best defensive efforts of the season, the Cowboys snapped the Saints 10-game win streak while holding them to a season-low in both yards (176) and points (10). Drew Brees and Co. entered the game averaging 37.3 points per outing. While the defense ranks among the best – fifth in total yards allowed (318.2) and second in points allowed per game (18.6) – the Cowboys offense has also picked up the slack during their win streak. A main reason is the improved play of the QB under center. 

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After much scrutiny early on, Prescott has turned the page in the second half (heavy.com). 
Since acquiring WR Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott has been rejuvenated:
Prior to Cooper – Comp Pct: 62.1 percent, Pass YPG: 202.4, TD-INT: 8-4, Passer rating: 87.4
After acquisition – Comp Pct: 72.8 percent, Pass YPG: 251.6, TD-INT: 6-1, Passer rating: 105.1

With a showdown with the Eagles on the horizon, Dallas can all but clinch the NFC East with a win -  something that seems inevitable with each passing week. 

1. Pat Mahomes = MVP
As the season has progressed, the MVP race has remained steady between three players: Saints QB Drew Brees, Rams RB Todd Gurley, and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. All three represent the linchpin behind their respective high-octane offenses. Gurley has taken the Rams offense to new heights (league-leading 1,175 yards rushing and 15 TDs, adding 46 catches for 474 yards and 4 TDs), but a non-QB hasn’t won the award since 2012, with 10 of the last 11 having gone to a signal caller. And while Brees has completed a league-best three-fourths of his passes (75.5 percent) in the midst of an impressive 30-3 TD-INT ratio, Mahomes has been the more exciting player showcasing his rare athleticism.

Image result for patrick mahomes vs raiders
Mahomes is enjoying one of the best seasons in just his first year under center (chiefs.com)
The first-year Chiefs signal caller (second-year pro) ranks first in touchdowns (41), QBR (85.5), & Yards per Attempt (9.15), and second in yards (3,923). He has seven games this season with 4+ passing TDs in a game, trailing only Peyton Manning (who had 9 such games in 2013) for most all-time (NFLResearch). To put that into perspective: since 2004, the Bills, Panthers, Bears, and Titans have each tallied 4+ passing TDs in a game a total of seven times.

What might be most impressive is that he has done it in his first season under center. Barring unforeseen circumstances, Mahomes will be the league MVP.