2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 14

Historic performances from Week 14:

Entering Thursday Night’s tilt with Jacksonville, Tennessee’s Derek Henry was averaging 10.7 carries and 39.5 yards per game. His season high for yards in a game was 58. All he did was explode for a franchise record 238 yards and four TDs on 17 carries, including becoming the second player in NFL history with a 99-yard TD run (Dorsett). He is also broke the record for fewest carries (17) in a game with 200+ rush yards & 4+ rush TDs in the Super Bowl era (NFLResearch).

Amari Cooper continues to turn his season around after his trade to the Cowboys. On Sunday, he became the first player in NFL history with three go-ahead receiving TDs in the fourth quarter/OT of the same game (ESPNStats&Info). He is the third Cowboys player – joining Michael Irvin (1992) and Frank Clarke (1962) – with 200 receiving yards and 3 rec TDs in the same game (ESPN).

Fun Fact: Sunday marked the first time in team history the Cowboys had a 400-yard passer, 200-yard receiver and 100-yard rusher in the same game (ESPNStats&Info).

Five takeaways

5. Stop overpaying QBs!
Yes quarterbacks are the most important piece of putting together a championship roster. And yes, the NFL is a QB driven league. But at what cost? Of the QBs earning the highest salaries in 2018, only one is currently in the playoff hunt.

It has been a rough season for the highest paid QBs (NFLResearch).

4. Panthers & Steelers heading in wrong direction.

What has happened to Carolina? Once sitting at 6-2, the Panthers have lost five in a row after their loss to Cleveland on Sunday and find themselves on the outside looking in for a spot in the postseason. QB Cam Newton hasn’t been the same since his hot start, with a TD-INT ratio of 9-8 during the losing streak. The defense hasn’t helped matters, surrendering an average of 30.4 points in its last five, including 365.2 yards per game (6.4 yards/play). It doesn’t get any easier for the Panthers, as two of their final three games are against the top-seeded Saints. Once a lock for a playoff berth, it’s going to be tough for Carolina to break through as a wildcard.

Meanwhile, it hasn’t been much better in the Steel city, where the Steelers have lost three in a row, including a 24-21 setback to the lowly Raiders this past Sunday. It seems to happen every season with this team – losing to less talented competition. There is absolutely no reason they should have lost to an Oakland team that came in having lost eight of its last nine games. A porous defense and turnovers have been the main culprits for the black and yellow, surrendering 344.3 yards per game in its last three, while having a (-5) turnover differential. Much like Carolina, it doesn’t get any easier, as the Steelers welcome New England to town this week – a team they’ve had little success against in the past (have lost five in a row and nine out of the last 11) – before they travel to New Orleans in Week 16. The next two weeks will decide if we can cast the Steelers as contenders or pretenders.   

3. Seahawks soaring... with running game.

Winners of four straight (and eight of 11), Seattle continues to inch closer to locking up its sixth playoff berth in the last seven seasons. Considered an afterthought in the preseason, the Hawks are finding success with an old school philosophy -- running the football. The Seahawks boast the number one rush offense (avg. 153.8 yards per game), and are running the ball on over 50 percent of offensive plays (highest rate in the league). Of their 64 plays on Monday night, they ran the ball 65.6 percent of the time (42) for 214 yards. Their stable of young backs – Chris Carson (179 for 794), Mike Davis (93 for 418), & Rashaad Penny (81 for 413) – provide a dynamic trio with all three capable of carrying the load. And it’s the perfect recipe for winning games (or at least keeping them close) late in the season, especially in colder weather.

Chris Carson heads the league's number one rushing offense (sportingnews). 

There can’t be many teams that want to see the Hawks come playoff time. Not to mention, they have one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league in Russell Wilson (ranks fourth in passing TDs with 29), who has big time game experience, including a Super Bowl ring.

Fun Fact: In 10 of its 13 games this season, Seattle has rushed for at least 100 yards – tied for most in the league (NFLResearch).

2. Bears make statement.

In a primetime matchup against the league’s number two scoring offense, the Chicago defense put the rest of the league on notice with yet another dominant performance. They held the high-octane Rams – a team that entered the night having scored 30 or more points in 10 of its 12 games – to six points. MVP candidate Todd Gurley totaled just 28 yards on 11 carries, while Jared Goff had the worst start of his career, completing a mere 45 percent of his passes (20/44) for 180 yards and four interceptions. For the Bears, it was nothing new for a defense that ranks first in takeaways with 34 (including a league-best 25 INTs), third in total defense, and fourth in sacks (40).

Mack continues to impact an elite Bears defense (newsweek). 

While the defense continues to impress, it’s the offense (ranked 22nd) that needs to improve in order for the Bears to be contenders. As we saw last year with the Jaguars, it takes more than a top defense to make a run. If the Bears have any intentions of playing deep into January, it starts and ends with the quarterback play of Trubisky.

Fun Fact: The Bears have more wins this season (9), than their last two seasons combined (8). It marks their first winning season since 2012.

1. Miracle in Miami.

For most NFL fans, few things are better than seeing the Patriots lose. It’s even sweeter when it comes at the hands of an underdog in dramatic fashion (i.e. the Eagles in last season’s Super Bowl or the Giants in SB XLII). On Sunday, the Dolphins followed suit with one of the greatest plays in NFL history.

Trailing by five with seven seconds to go from their own 31-yard line, the Dolphins had a 0.1 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN metrics. What happened next was one of the most improbable plays of all-time. QB Ryan Tannehill dropped back and found Kenny Stills across the middle at the 45. Stills then lateraled to Devante Parker, who ran toward midfield and pitched it to Kenyan Drake who weaved his way 52 yards through the remaining Pats defense to stun the visitors and send the crowd (& rest of the NFL community) into a frenzy. It was the longest play from scrimmage to win a game with no time remaining in the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl era.

It was all-timer, and even sweeter that it came at the expense of division rival New England. For yet another season, Tom Brady and the Patriots couldn’t solve the riddle -- defeating the Dolphins in Miami (they've lost five out of the last six in South beach). It has become a place of horrors - Brady is now 7-10 all-time as a starter in Miami. But the blame for Sunday’s loss has to be on head coach Bill Belichick. Why in the world would he put Rob Gronkowski as his last line of defense? No quarterback outside of Mahomes is making a 75-yard heave to the end zone. Especially not Tannehill who is not even at 100 percent. Not to mention how fragile and less athletic Gronk has become throughout the course of this season.

Regardless, the Phins capitalized with the best play this season, and one that will go down in franchise history for a long, long time. 

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 13

Week 13 food for thought

The receptions leader since week 6? RB Christian McCaffrey - 53.

The rushing leader since week 12? Undrafted rookie RB Phillip Lindsay - 267 yards. 

Five takeaways 

5. Wait… How?

If you were to guess which team has the number one offense (in terms of yards) through 13 weeks, who would you guess?

LA Rams? Nope.

New Orleans? Try again.

Kansas City? Negative.

Pittsburgh? Wrong again.

The answer… the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are averaging a league-leading 443 yards of offense per game. The problem? A combination of turnovers (30, most in the NFL) and a porous defense (ranked 27^th in yards allowed and 30^th in points allowed). In other words, it pays to take care of the ball and have at the least a capable defense.

4. Another wasted year?

The Packers began the season with high hopes, including Super Bowl aspirations behind the arm of one of the game’s best. Those expectations have quickly vanished in the last couple of weeks, going from bad to worse, and culminating Sunday in an embarrassing home loss to the then 2-9 Cardinals. It was the first loss at home this season, and the exclamation point to the exit door for HC Mike McCarthy, which was inevitable as the season wore on, as he and Rodgers never saw eye-to-eye.

It's been a frustrating year for Rodgers and the Packers (ProFootballTalk). 

This season has to leave Green Bay fans scratching their heads after what seems to be yet another wasted year of Aaron Rodgers' prime.

3. Winning unconventionally.

The Miami Dolphins have been inconsistent all season, especially on the offensive side of the ball (ranked 29th). Yet, with four weeks remaining, they remain in the AFC playoff hunt at 6-6. On Sunday against the Bills, the Phins were out-gained 415-175, but still found a way to win, 21-17.

It’s nothing new, as back in week 3, the Raiders ran 35 more plays (74-39) and possessed the ball 17 more minutes (38:31-21:29) than the hosts, but the Dolphins still won 28-20. In week 9 against the Jets, Miami managed a mere seven first downs (to the Jets 15), were out-gained 282-168, but thanks to four interceptions and a defensive TD they were able to win 13-6. As bad as the defense has been (ranked 29th), their ability to create turnovers (second to only the Bears with 19 interceptions) has kept them in games and given them chances to win.

2. Cowboys will win the NFC East.

Winners of four straight, America’s team is peaking at just the right time. Behind one of the best defensive efforts of the season, the Cowboys snapped the Saints 10-game win streak while holding them to a season-low in both yards (176) and points (10). Drew Brees and Co. entered the game averaging 37.3 points per outing. While the defense ranks among the best – fifth in total yards allowed (318.2) and second in points allowed per game (18.6) – the Cowboys offense has also picked up the slack during their win streak. A main reason is the improved play of the QB under center. 

After much scrutiny early on, Prescott has turned the page in the second half (heavy.com). 

Since acquiring WR Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott has been rejuvenated:

Prior to Cooper – Comp Pct: 62.1 percent, Pass YPG: 202.4, TD-INT: 8-4, Passer rating: 87.4

After acquisition – Comp Pct: 72.8 percent, Pass YPG: 251.6, TD-INT: 6-1, Passer rating: 105.1

With a showdown with the Eagles on the horizon, Dallas can all but clinch the NFC East with a win -  something that seems inevitable with each passing week. 

1. Pat Mahomes = MVP

As the season has progressed, the MVP race has remained steady between three players: Saints QB Drew Brees, Rams RB Todd Gurley, and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. All three represent the linchpin behind their respective high-octane offenses. Gurley has taken the Rams offense to new heights (league-leading 1,175 yards rushing and 15 TDs, adding 46 catches for 474 yards and 4 TDs), but a non-QB hasn’t won the award since 2012, with 10 of the last 11 having gone to a signal caller. And while Brees has completed a league-best three-fourths of his passes (75.5 percent) in the midst of an impressive 30-3 TD-INT ratio, Mahomes has been the more exciting player showcasing his rare athleticism.

Mahomes is enjoying one of the best seasons in just his first year under center (chiefs.com)

The first-year Chiefs signal caller (second-year pro) ranks first in touchdowns (41), QBR (85.5), & Yards per Attempt (9.15), and second in yards (3,923). He has seven games this season with 4+ passing TDs in a game, trailing only Peyton Manning (who had 9 such games in 2013) for most all-time (NFLResearch). To put that into perspective: since 2004, the Bills, Panthers, Bears, and Titans have each tallied 4+ passing TDs in a game a total of seven times.

What might be most impressive is that he has done it in his first season under center. Barring unforeseen circumstances, Mahomes will be the league MVP.

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 12

Five takeaways

5. Teams heating up.

With just five weeks remaining, a number of teams are making postseason pushes with impressive winning streaks…

The Saints continue to roll, winning their 10th straight – a 31-17 drubbing of the Falcons – and currently hold a four-game lead on the Panthers in the NFC South.

The Texans have won eight in a row - the longest such streak in franchise history and the longest for a team after starting a season 0-3 in NFL history (NFLResearch).

Behind an impressive defense, the Bears have won five straight. Their eight wins this season match their entire win total from the past two seasons combined (2016: 3-13, 2017: 5-11). 

After starting the season 1-5, the Colts have won five consecutive.

The Cowboys have won three straight and are in the driver’s seat of the uninspiring NFC East.

The Browns have won two games in a row for the first time in 64 outings.

According to playoffstatus.com, the Saints, Texans, and Bears are virtual locks to make the postseason. The Cowboys have a good chance (54 percent), while the Colts (27 percent) and Browns (2 percent) will most likely have to wait another season.

4. Packers road woes continue.

What has happened to the Packers? Dubbed by many as Super Bowl contenders in the preseason, Aaron Rodgers and company have been anything but through 11 games. Especially on the road. Away from Lambeau, the Pack are 0-6. Dating back to last season, Rodgers has now lost eight straight road starts – the longest streak by a Packers QB since David Whitehurst lost nine straight from 1978-81 (EliasSports). It’s rare to see Green Bay look so lethargic, especially with #12 behind center. It’s even more rare to see the cheese heads miss the playoffs with #12 at the helm. At 4-6-1, they’re in danger of doing just that for the second year in a row. Not a good sign for the future of HC Mike McCarthy. 

3. Rivers = Dan Marino of this era.

QB Philip Rivers continues to find success year after year, yet one thing continues to elude him – a trip to the Super Bowl. Despite constantly being in the top-10 in every statistical category every season, the 15-year signal caller has yet to take the Bolts on a postseason run (4-5 in five playoff appearances). He has the most wins (114), completions (4,410), attempts (6,836), passing yards (53,467), and passing TDs (368) among QBs to never make a Super Bowl appearance (NFLResearch). On Sunday, he added another milestone to his career, completing a NFL-record 25 consecutive passes to start the game in a 45-10 thrashing of the Cardinals.

Rivers is off to one of the best starts of his career. The big question remains: can he make it to a SB (CBSSports)? 

While Dan Marino made one SB appearance (his second season), he never hoisted the Lombardi. Years later, it seems like Rivers is on a similar trajectory. 

Let's hope he gets at least one crack at it. 

2. Luck back on Colts side.

After much uncertainty as to whether Andrew Luck would return to form (or even play again) due to a severe shoulder injury, Luck has silenced the doubters, leading the Colts back into the sphere of relevance. The sure-fire comeback player of the year has recorded three or more touchdown passes in eight straight games – tying former Colt Peyton Manning for second on the all-time list, trailing only Tom Brady’s 10 straight in 2007 (NBCsports). During the Colts current five-game winning streak, Luck has tallied 16 touchdowns to only three interceptions, while completing 113 of 149 passes (75.8 percent). Much credit has to go to the offensive line, which has only surrendered 11 sacks this season – tied for tops in the league. A far cry from the last time Luck took the field in ’16, when the Colts allowed the fifth most sacks in the league (44).

Indy might not have the defense to make a run, but Luck and the offense are restoring hope in the midst of a late postseason push.

1. Cleveland thriving after Hue’s departure.

Hue has picked up right where he left off… losing. The only difference this time around is that he’s an assistant. The Browns demolished their former head man on Sunday, scoring their most points in a win this season (35), and most in a first half (28) since Week 14, 1991 (NFLResearch). One former teammate – DB Damarious Randall – even trolled Jackson by gifting him the ball after an interception.

He wasn't the only one, as a number of Browns players took the game personal, which started and ended with rookie Baker Mayfield. The first-year QB torched the Bengals for 258 yards and four touchdowns on 19 of 26 passing. After the game, Mayfield had an awkward exchange with Hue, which spilled over to the press conference, where he noted, “I didn’t feel like talking… It’s just somebody [who] was in our locker room, asking for us to play for him and then goes to a different team we play twice a year.” 

That distaste resounded throughout the team and carried into the game. And it has the Browns playing with some fire. The results are showing.

Mayfield has the Browns playing inspired football (cleveland.com).

This season:

Browns with Hue: (2-5-1), averaged 21.2 PPG, B. Mayfield – 130/223 (58%), 8 TD, 6 INT

Browns w/o Hue: (2-1), averaging 28 PPG, B. Mayfield – 65/88 (74%), 9 TD, INT

Behind the play of the number one overall pick, the Browns have snapped some notable streaks so far this season, including: 17-game losing streak, 19-game winless streak (tied with Steelers), 18-game AFC North winless streak, 33-game losing streak on Sundays, 25-game road losing streak, and 64 games without back-to-back wins (ESPN).

Oh and let’s not forget that in three games as interim head coach, Gregg Williams has more wins than Hue Jackson had in two seasons.

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 11

Week 11 food for thought: 

Sign of parity or a coincidence? 11 of the 13 NFL games played in week 11 were decided by five points or fewer (one possession) with the average margin of victory being 2.7 (two games decided by 1, two games by 2, five by 3, one by 4, and one by 5).

Five takeaways

5. Back-to-back? No chance!

There will be a new team hoisting the Lombardi trophy come February.  

Now the question becomes whether the Eagles will even crack the postseason? Of the 51 prior Super Bowl champions, 16 have missed the playoffs the following season (31.4%). And after losing five of its last seven, including an embarrassing 41-point loss to the Saints on Sunday, Philadelphia is on the brink of becoming team number 17.

The only thing going for the defending champs is that they play in one of the worst divisions in the league (NFC East). At 4-6, they remain only two games back of the first place Redskins, who just lost their starting QB (Alex Smith) for the remainder of the season.

There’s still a chance, but even if they sneak in, Philly will not be making a trip to Atlanta.  

4. Texas turn-around.

Is it time to take the Texans seriously? After starting the season 0-3, Houston has quietly won seven in a row, creating a two-game lead on the woeful AFC South. DeShaun Watson has been a big reason, as he has drastically improved after taking some time to adjust from last season’s injury.

First three games (0-3): 63-of-106 (59%), 5 TD, 3 INT

Last seven games (7-0): 138-of-203 (68%), 13 TD, 6 INT

Watson and the Texans continue to be a sleeper in the AFC (NJ.com). 

The defense continues to impress, ranking 9^th in sacks (28), 7^th in total defense (330.5), and 6^th in both points allowed (20.5) and takeaways (17).

With a balanced offense (avg 242.1 passing and 122.1 rushing) and a top-10 defense, the Texans could be a tough matchup come January. Especially with a signal caller who knows a thing or two about winning on the biggest stage (runner-up and National champion in back-to-back seasons at Clemson).

3. Steel comeback. 

One minute with the game on the line and your team down one score, who are you taking? Aaron Rodgers? Drew Brees? Tom Brady? 

How about Ben Roethlisberger? The 6-foot-5 signal caller rarely gets mentioned in the same category as said QBs, yet he continues to deliver in crunch time.

Trailing 16-0, Big Ben led the Steelers to 20 unanswered points, including the game-winning 1-yard TD run with seconds left to stun the Jaguars on Sunday. It was the 41^st game-winning drive of his career in the fourth quarter or overtime, passing John Elway for sixth all-time by any quarterback since the NFL merger (Sporting News). He ranks third among active QBs.

It’s hard to go wrong choosing any of the elite QBs, but Roethlisberger deserves more credit for consistently leading the Steelers to last-second victories.

2. The Saints keep on marching… to the Super Bowl?

Is there a better or more complete team in the league right now? It’d be hard to make a case.

Drew Brees is leading a prolific offense in the Big Easy (sportingnews.com).

Winners of nine straight, including a 48-7 drubbing of the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on Sunday, the Saints are tearing through the rest of the league. An opposition nightmare, Drew Brees is leading a historic offense. The 18-year veteran is enjoying arguably his best season, tallying 25 touchdowns to just one interception. Through 10 games, the Saints have tied the NFL record for most 40+ point games in a season with six. They’ve outscored their last three opponents 144-56. Averaging a league high 37.8 points per game and 427.1 yards per game (ranked third), Sean Payton may have his most talented team yet. And the current Super Bowl favorites at that.

1. Game of the year!!

In a matchup featuring the two highest-rated passers in primetime since 2000 (Jared Goff 139.9, and Patrick Mahomes, 106.7), Monday Night Football exceeded the hype.

Like a heavyweight fight, the Chiefs and Rams delivered punch after punch as both offenses (and defenses on occasion) responded to the other in dramatic fashion. The Rams were left standing with a 54-51 win, giving football fans everywhere a satisfying appetizer to the holiday week ahead.

Jared Goff and the Rams outlasted the Chiefs in a MNF instant classic (therams.com). 

Here's a look inside the numbers:

- It was the first game in NFL history in which both teams scored 50 points or more. Entering the night, teams to score 50 points were 216-0 all-time (ESPN Stats).

- The teams combined for 105 points – the third-highest point total of all-time and the most ever for a Monday Night game (NFLResearch).

- There were 14 touchdowns in the game. To put that into perspective, the Bills have scored a total of 13 all season.

- The teams combined for 1,001 yards (Chiefs 546, Rams 455), averaging a whopping 7.0 yards/play.

- Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill led all skill players with 215 yards and two TDs on 10 catches. 

- In just his 12^th game behind center, MVP front-runner Patrick Mahomes completed 33-of-46 passes for 478 yards and 6 TDs. He committed five turnovers (3 INT, 2 fumbles) but those were overshadowed by his play-making ability, as he joined the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger (2014) and the Giants' Y.A. Tittle (1962) as the only players since 1950 with multiple games with six or more touchdown passes in a single season (ESPN Stats). He’s up to 37 through 11 weeks.

- His counterpart, Rams QB Jared Goff completed 31-of-49 passes for 413 yards and 4 TDs, while adding a rushing score.

- The Rams won despite RB Todd Gurley not finding the end zone for the first time this season, snapping his 13-game TD streak which was tied for the fourth longest since 1950 (NFLResearch). He was a non-factor by his standards: 12 carries for 55 yards, and 3 catches for 39 yards.

- There were six lead changes, including four in the fourth quarter.

- In a game loaded with offense, the defenses also had some fun, tallying eight sacks (five by the Chiefs), seven turnovers (five by the Rams), and three touchdowns (two by the Rams). 

- Rams’ linebacker Samson Ebukam returned an interception and a fumble for touchdowns – joining Bears safety Eddie Jackson as the only two players to accomplish that in the same game in the last ten seasons (NFLResearch). Chiefs’ DE Allen Bailey added a fumble return for a score in the fourth quarter.

On a night with nonstop action and video game-like numbers, both teams put on a clinic in what will go down as the game of the year.

All we can hope for now is a rematch in the Super Bowl.

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 10

Five Takeaways

5. Time for TNF to be canned?

The NFL is constantly exploring avenues to increase revenues.

One of those has been playing football on Thursday nights. Since 2012, TNF has been a part of the regular season schedule, with every team in the league playing at least once in primetime on a short week. Yet, since its inception, the quality of competitive games has spiraled downward.

Enter 2018. Of the nine games played on the Thursday Night Football slate thus far, all but two have been decided by double digits, with the winning team outscoring the opposition by a staggering 338-165 (37.6-18.3 points per game) margin. Even more, eight of the nine victors have scored at least 30 points (with three of the last four scoring at least 40). Rarely do we get a close game.

The short week gives both teams little time to prepare, and gives the home team (combined 7-2) an even bigger advantage (without having to use a day for travel).

Growing up, it was always fun looking forward to Thanksgiving day games, but now even that has lost its luster because we see it every week.

It’s time for the NFL to think about restoring tradition. 

4. Pats worst nemesis?

Want a blueprint for beating the Patriots? Become an adversary via the Belichick learning tree, as a former player/coach.

Both have surprisingly paid off this season, as Detroit’s HC Matt Patricia (spent 14 seasons under Belichick as an assistant) and Tennessee’s HC Mike Vrabel (spent 8 seasons as a player for Belichick) have dominated their prior boss.

Patricia’s Lions took the Pats to the woodshed in primetime in Week 3 via a 26-10 blowout while holding the Pats to 209 yards of total offense. Then, this past Sunday, Vrabel’s Titans replicated that effort, defeating his former coach, 34-10, while holding them to 284 yards (40 rushing).

New England rarely looks outmatched or out-coached, but Belichick’s students have made the Patriots look silly and in the process, may have found a recipe in making the Pats less formidable.

3. Teams to keep an eye on.  

Every year there seems to be a team or two that sneaks up on the rest of the league and makes some noise come January. Last year, it was the Jaguars.

This year, here’s two candidates to keep an eye on (one from each conference):

Los Angeles Chargers – After starting 1-2, the Bolts have quietly won six in a row, and remain just 1.5 games back of the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers boast an underrated QB-RB-WR trio that can match up with the best of them. Philip Rivers is enjoying one of his best seasons (21 TD to 4 INT) as a pro, Melvin Gordon ranks fifth in rushing yards (672, 5.4 YPC), and Keenan Allen remains a steady number one option (687 yards, 2 TDs). The defense ranks 9^th in sacks (26) and that’s without star DE Joey Bosa, who is expected to return from injury later this season. They may not beat out the Chiefs for the division, but they very well could make a run similar to that of the Jaguars a season ago.

Chicago Bears – Before the season started, it was a foregone conclusion that the Packers or Vikings would rule the NFC North. Not so fast, as Chicago – winners of three straight – looks like the team to beat in the division. DE Khalil Mack has instantly inspired one of the league’s toughest defenses – which ranks third overall, second in sacks (30), and first in both INTs (16) & forced fumbles (16). Meanwhile, the offense is humming under first year HC Matt Nagy (29.9 PPG, ranked 5^th). QB Mitchell Trubisky continues to improve in his second season. With his performance on Sunday, he became the first Bears QB since 1950 with three games of 300+ passing yards and 3+ TD in a single season (NFLResearch). The Bears confidence is rising and with it a contender in the NFC.

2. Browns rookie trio igniting hope.

This past off season, GM John Dorsey was tasked with turning around one of the worst franchises in the NFL (let alone all of pro sports). So far, he’s delivered.

The Browns have struck gold with three future studs who are already making significant impacts (and strides in year one). For the first time in 30 tries (since ’99) they have a franchise signal caller. They’ve got a future bell-cow running back averaging 6.2 yards per carry. And they have a lock-down corner for years to come in a division with star wide outs Antonio Brown and A.J Green. All three (Mayfield, Chubb, and Ward) have won Rookie of the Week honors at least once so far this season.

Mayfield completed his first 13 passes on Sunday against the Falcons (ESPN.com).

Mayfield leads an offense that ranks 10^th in total yards, including sixth in rushing (133.2 YPG). The first-year signal caller has performed admirably, completing 61.8 percent of his passes while averaging 248 yards a game, with 13 TDs to 7 INTs. All on a team with very little offensive weaponry. Chubb has scored in all three of his starts, rushing for 341 yards on 60 carries (5.7 avg) in those contests. Ward has three INTs (two in his first game) & two fumble recoveries and continues to make plays in the secondary (7 pass breakups). 

It's still early, but for the first time since ’99, the Browns have some pieces to build around.

Fun Fact: Nick Chubb’s 92-yard TD run against the Falcons was the longest run in franchise history, surpassing Bobby Mitchell’s 90-yard TD against the Redskins in 1959.

1. No Bell, no problem.

The saga is finally over. Former Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell decided to forgo signing his franchise tag today, meaning he’ll spend the remainder of the season where he started it… off the field.

The beneficiary continues to be James Connor.

With the Steelers organization not budging, it has allowed the second-year back out of Pittsburgh to step in. The offense hasn’t skipped a beat.

Connor is actually out-performing his predecessor:

Bell through 9 gms in '17: 160 att., 528 yds, 5 TDs & 33 catches for 319 yds

Connor through 9 gms in '18: 164 att., 771 yds, 10 TDs & 39 catches for 386 yds, TD

Connor continues to carry the load for the Steelers (sportingnews.com). 

He's accomplished some impressive feats along the way: 

Connor is the only player in Steelers’ history with at least 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs in the first 8 games of a season (NFLonESPN).

He has four games with at least 100 rushing yards, 50 receiving yards and a TD this season – the most such games by any player in a season in NFL history (ESPN Stats).

I think it’s safe to say the Steelers are just fine without Bell.

Team > Me. 

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 5

Five Takeaways

5. Ward > Chubb
Remember when everyone ripped the Browns for passing on DE Bradley Chubb at No. 4 to select CB Denzel Ward in this past year’s Draft?

Through five weeks, Ward has silenced the critics, helping solidify Cleveland’s secondary (and defense). The first-year pro out of Ohio State is tied for first in the league in interceptions (3), while adding a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and six pass break-ups.

Ward's blocked FG attempt helped spark Cleveland's 2nd win of the season (USAtoday). 

On Sunday, Ward was the catalyst on two huge plays – intercepting a Joe Flacco pass inside the five and blocking a Justin Tucker kick before half, preventing the Ravens from scoring (at least six points).

We’re only past the quarter point of the season, but Ward has to be the early favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year. Something that has only been accomplished one other time in franchise history (Chip Banks, 1982).

4. Don’t stop believing

Not highly recruited, wide receiver Adam Thielen earned a $500 scholarship to Minnesota State-Mankato (D-II). Not invited to the combine in 2014, he went undrafted. After earning an invite to the Vikings rookie camp that same year, Thielen never stopped working at his craft. And after playing mostly special teams his first two seasons, he burst onto the scene in 2016 as a slot receiver, catching 69 passes for 967 yards and five touchdowns. Enter 2018, and all that work is paying dividends, becoming the first player in the Super Bowl era to record 100+ receiving yards in each of his team’s first five games of a season (NFLResearch). A reminder that you don’t have to be drafted to become great.

3. Optimism rising

Five weeks in, the Browns season has been nothing short of an unpredictable roller coaster, with three of their five games going to overtime and all five having been decided by four points or less (three by 3, one by 4, & one tie). Yet for the first time in (what feels like) forever, they have fielded a legitimate NFL team that is competing with the best of them.

In the midst of doubling their win total from the last two seasons combined, the Browns:

Have recorded a league-leading 14 takeaways – one more than all of last season.

Rank second in the league in sacks with 21 (had 34 all of last season).

Lead the league in rushing with 723 yards (144.6 per game) & running plays of 10+ yards (23).

Are undefeated at home (2-0-1).

If it weren’t for a special teams unit that has struggled all season, the Browns very well could be 5-0. Regardless, after a big victory over the Ravens on Sunday, they are in the thick of things in the AFC at 2-2-1. Playoffs (insert Jim Mora voice)?

Let’s not get carried away just yet.

2. Rookie QBs showcased

Every year when the Draft rolls around, it’s about the quarterback.

Who will be the next franchise signal caller to turn around an organization? Who can step in from day one and improve those around him? Who has the attributes to excel at the next level?

In a quarterback-driven league, it’s a debate that never ends. This season, the draft process revolved around Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen (all four were taken in the top 10).

On Sunday, all four started and all four won – the first time in the Super Bowl era that starting rookie QBs went 4-0 in the same week (Elias). 

Turning around a franchise isn’t easy, but so far these four are making an impact.

1. Hats off to a legend

For 18 seasons, Drew Brees has embodied the artistry of the quarterback position.

Coming out of Purdue, he was overlooked because of his height.

In San Diego, he was given only a 25-percent chance to resume his career after he dislocated his shoulder, suffered a 360-degree tear of his labrum and a 50-percent tear of his rotator cuff (a one-in-500 injury). The Chargers released him.

He turned all that adversity into motivation to beat the odds. And after being cleared by doctors, the Saints gave him a chance.

The rest is history.

Brees reacts to becoming the NFL's all-time leading passer (USAtoday). 

On Monday night, he broke the all-time record for passing yards in a career – topping Peyton Manning’s 71,940 – in the midst of dominating the Redskins, 43-19.

In the midst of the celebration, he told his kids, "you can accomplish anything in life you're willing to work for."

Brees has done just that as he now stands alone in passing yards (72,103), completions, and completion percentage and is fourth on the all-time passing touchdowns list (which he will soon overtake).

Congrats to a class-act and a New Orleans legend.   

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 4

Five takeaways

5. Where’s the technology?

How is it that we live in a generation exploding with technological resources and yet we still haven’t found a way to use it on the football field?

Could the NFL not use the same technology used in tennis? Hec, soccer already utilizes it as a goal-line technology.

After numerous amounts of bad calls in recent years, I'm starting to wonder if it's time for America's most popular sport to follow suit (with goal-line and first down technology). 

4. AFC Sleeper

Everyone wants to talk about the exciting Chiefs and rightfully so, with first-year starter Pat Mahomes leading a red-hot offense (36.3 PPG). But there’s another team up north that’s looking the part of an AFC contender: the Baltimore Ravens. Sitting at 3-1, John Harbaugh’s squad quietly fields both a top-10 offense (9^th) and defense (5^th), while averaging 30.8 points per game (5^th). Not to mention having the best special teams weapon in the game in kicker Justin Tucker. It’s early, but the Ravens are flocking in the right direction.

3. Khalil Mack > Oakland

What was Oakland thinking?! Not only was Khalil Mack the Raiders best player, but he instantly made the defense better.

Mack is dominating in Chicago and the pillar of their top-ranked D (CBS Chicago).

That’s exactly what he’s doing in his new garb. The two-time First Team All-Pro is off to a roaring start in the windy city, recording a sack and a forced fumble in all four games this season (the first to record both in four straight since Robert Mathis in 2005, ESPN Stats & Info). He has as many sacks – five – as the entire Raiders team combined. And his presence has helped Chicago to a 3-1 start behind a top-10 defense that ranks first in sacks with 18.

Meanwhile, the Raiders rank 28^th in defense and are tied for last in sacks. Ouch.

2. Greatest show on turf (grass) 2.0

The 1999 (through 2001) Rams were appropriately dubbed the ‘greatest show on turf’ thanks to their record-breaking offense led by QB Kurt Warner and innovative OC Mike Martz. Almost 20 years later, the 2018 Rams (albeit in Los Angeles) are becoming their own version, with QB Jared Goff and head coach Sean McVay. Through four games, the Rams are averaging 35 points per game (‘99 Rams averaged 32.8) behind an offense loaded with playmakers. And it’s McVay’s creativity that’s making the offense that much harder to account for.

Jared Goff's 5 TDs on Thursday led the Rams to a 4-0 start (SBnation).

Now, it's just a matter of whether the 2018 version can accomplish what that famed '99 team did: win the Super Bowl. 

1. Offense, offense, and well… more offense

What’s more impressive: a high-powered offense or a lock-down defense? In today’s game, it’d have to be the latter considering they are few and far between.

What’s more exciting: a high-powered offense or a lock-down defense? For the consumer, it’s the former and it’s not even close, as instant satisfaction in terms of points is the best way to keep one’s attention.

Through the first quarter of the season, offenses are reaching new heights as 12 teams are averaging at least 25 points, with five averaging 30 or more (compared to the end of last season when only eight were at 25 or more and zero at 30 or more).

The most eye-popping stat… the number of times a QB threw for 400 yards the past four seasons: 2014 – 11, 2015 – 10, 2016 – 12, 2017 – 8. Enter 2018, and there has already been 12 instances through just 63 games.

And let’s not forget, week 2 set an NFL record for highest cumulative QB passer rating (102.6) for a single week in league history (Gil Brandt).

The NFL is catering to the offense (with so many infractions going against defenses) more than ever before and the results are showing, especially in the passing game.

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 3

Five Takeaways

5. Enough with the penalties

The NFL is going to great lengths to protect the quarterback and it’s getting out of control. There have been 34 roughing the passer penalties through the first three weeks – that’s eight more than the previous high (26, 2006). Not only is it changing the course of games, but it’s causing players to alter how they tackle the QB. Last week, Packers’ DE Clay Matthews was called for a questionable roughing penalty on Kirk Cousins, who ended up throwing an interception on the play, which would have resulted in a win for Green Bay. Instead, the penalty extended the drive and Cousins got another shot, forcing the game into overtime with a TD pass. Even worse, this week Dolphins’ DE William Hayes suffered a torn ACL while trying to avoid putting his body weight on the quarterback. I understand it’s a quarterback driven league but unless the defensive players are forcefully trying to hit these signal callers, let them play.

4. Black hole trouble

The Oakland Raiders have had an abysmal start to the season under first-year head coach Jon Gruden. After trading away their best player (Khalil Mack), the Raiders have struggled to find a pass rush (5 sacks) while giving up 27 points per game. Even more concerning… Oakland has outscored its opponents by a combined 35-17 in the first half, but has been outscored 64-17 after the break. It can’t bode well for a coach trying to change the culture before its move to Las Vegas.

3. On Any Given Sunday

In a league that is more unpredictable than not, Sunday was yet another example that anything can happen come game day in the NFL. 

Minnesota was 17-point favorites at home against Buffalo. The underdog Bills won (by more than 17), 27-6…

Jacksonville was 10-point favorites at home against Tennessee. The Titans won 9-6 – their third in a row over the Jags…

The Patriots lost by double digits for the second consecutive week – which hasn’t happened since 2002 (and just the third time ever under Bill Belichick)…

The Lions had a 100-yard rusher (Kerryon Johnson) for the first time since 2013 – a span of 70 consecutive games…

The Raiders ran 35 more offensive plays than the Dolphins (74-39), yet Miami won, 28-20, averaging 9.6 yards per play…

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 411 yards, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for over 400 yards in three straight games (NFLResearch). The Buccaneers lost 30-27.

2. Changing of the times

With development of the game starting at younger ages than ever before, rookies are coming into the league more prepared, with many of them starting from day one. When Arizona rookie QB Josh Rosen relieved Sam Bradford late in Sunday’s loss to the Bears, it marked the fifth of the five first-round signal callers from the 2018 Draft (Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Jackson) to see playing time. It’s the first time in the common Draft Era (since 1967) that five first-round selections played in the first three weeks of their rookie season (NFLResearch). With quarterback being arguably the toughest position (at least for franchises to get right), it could be a sign of things to come in the future.

1. Brownies Baking

I’ve been to about ten NFL games in my life. Yes, it’s a small sample size. None come close to the raucous environment I experienced Thursday night.

Browns vs. Jets pregame.

From the moment Baker Mayfield took the field in relief of the injured Tyrod Taylor (concussion), the entire atmosphere in First Energy Stadium was electrified. Inheriting a 14-0 deficit and (-3) net passing yards as a result of six Taylor-led drives, Mayfield stepped in and fired a 14-yard completion on his first pass attempt. He proceeded to orchestrate a promising first possession (3-of-4, 47 yards) to get a field goal before the half, injecting life into the crowd and belief into his teammates. Coming out of the half, the rookie signal caller led two touchdown drives – the latter being late in the fourth quarter – to complete an epic comeback and give the Browns their first win in 635 days.

Amid the comeback, Baker showed his enthusiasm when he tied the game at 14 after catching a two-point conversion pass on a trick play. With adrenaline running high, the number one overall pick strolled to the sideline and encouraged the crowd to make some noise. Everyone obliged, turning the stadium into a frenzy.

His energy was infectious. His athleticism and passion for the game exemplified. Like most fans, I don’t know what the glory days of the Browns was like. But for one night, Mayfield turned back the clock, giving hope to a starved city, and providing a glimpse into what the future may hold.

A reminder that after 30 tries, maybe... just maybe, the Browns finally got one right.

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 2

Favorite fact of Week 2: Think the NFL favors offenses? The cumulative passer rating for all quarterbacks in Week 2 was 102.6, a new record for a single week (Gil Brandt). The previous high was 94.8 (Week 10, 2010). 

Five Takeaways

5. Kickers’ woes

They’re the least athletic players on the field, yet arguably some of the most important.

A professional with ONE job… kick the ball through the uprights. And yet the difficulty of this ‘simple’ task continues to rise with each week for these so-called pro kickers.

Sunday was an atrocious display of failed field goal attempts, as there were 19 missed opportunities to put points on the board (2 shy of the all-time mark). A week after missing a FG and a shot to defeat the Steelers, Browns K Zane Gonzalez missed not one… not two… not three… but FOUR attempts (two extra points and two field goals), leading to a loss in New Orleans! Browns fans just can’t make this stuff up. A shame for a franchise trying to turn things around.

As if that wasn’t enough, Minnesota missed a golden opportunity to beat a division rival on the road when rookie K Daniel Carlson failed on all three of his attempts – two in overtime – resulting in a tie in Green Bay.

Honorable mention: Raiders Mike Nugent had an extra point blocked in the second quarter in a one-point loss to the Broncos.

It has me wondering (as if I were playing a video game, i.e. Madden)… should teams just start going for it on fourth down?

4. Trouble rising in the Burgh

Le’Veon Bell holding out. Antonio Brown unhappy, not showing up to Monday’s practice. The Pittsburgh Steelers are spiraling in the wrong direction through the first two weeks of the season. Drama aside, the lack of a defense is a big reason for the early struggles. In their last three games (including the playoff loss to the Jaguars), the Steelers are allowing a whopping 36 points and 385 yards per game to opposing offenses (in the 7 games since losing Ryan Shazier in the middle of last season, they’ve allowed 29 PPG and 361 YPG). It’s not a recipe built for success, having to lean on the offense to win a shootout every week. It’s still early, but with drama mounting and a locker room on the brink of instability, the Steelers could be on the wrong end of a disappointing season.

3. The sunshine state is shining.

The three teams residing in Florida are off to flourishing starts, going a combined 6-0. In the preseason, it was expected that the Jaguars would be a contender in the playoff picture. The Dolphins and Buccaneers? Not so much. In fact, the ESPN preseason power rankings had Miami pegged dead last and Tampa Bay 25^th (http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24364276/nfl-power-rankings-32-surprise-players-watch-2018-preseason). 

The sunshine state is off to a surprising start (Fox sports). 

Forget about that! The Bucs’ Ryan Fitzpatrick is leading a resurgence in his 14^th season, throwing for over 400 yards and four scores in each of his first two starts – wins over New Orleans and the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles – while the Dolphins are leaning on efficient quarterback play (the return of Ryan Tannehill) and an opportunistic defense. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is picking up where it left off, fielding one of the league’s best defenses coupled with a promising offense.

Yes we’re only two weeks in, but it looks like the sunshine state is poised to prove the doubters wrong. Kudos to the panel of ‘experts’ that thought otherwise.

2. Pat Mahomes is this year’s Deshaun Watson… but better??

Last season, Texans rookie Deshaun Watson burst onto the scene when he accounted for 17 touchdowns (16 passing) during an incredible 4-week stretch -- before losing his season due to injury. This season, it looks like Mahomes is taking over that reign as the league’s most exciting newcomer (albeit in his second year) to watch. All he’s done in the first two weeks of the season is throw for 10 touchdowns (and no interceptions) – the only quarterback to do that since the 1970 merger (NFLResearch) - in road wins over the Chargers and Steelers. Behind an offense loaded with playmakers, the Chiefs offense is must-watch television with Mahomes under center. Here’s to Andy Reid hoping he will be the signal caller to finally take KC over the top.

Mahomes is the youngest player in NFL history to throw six TDs in a game (Washington Post).

Fun Fact: Alex Smith threw 26 touchdown passes last season for the Chiefs. With three more TD tosses, Mahomes will already be halfway to that mark.

1. The LA Rams are the team to beat

Last season, the LA Rams led the league in scoring (29.9 PPG) but had a defense that ranked 19^th (12^th in scoring defense). This season, the offense is still humming (33.5 PPG). But it’s the defense, with all of its new acquisitions that’s looking like it may be the best unit in the league (allowing just 6.5 PPG). Couple that with their explosive offense (not to mention great special teams) and the Rams are the team to beat, period. If they stay healthy, there’s no reason the NFC title shouldn’t go through them. And remember, this is a team that had a taste of the postseason a year ago. That experience should go a long way in driving them to bigger heights come January.  

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 1

Five Takeaways 

5. Week 1 weirdness.

With many players opting to forego the preseason slate, it often takes a half (or two) to get up to speed, opening the door for early season surprises. Week 1 brought a plethora of unforeseen, if not, bizarre developments, including:

A 14-year journeyman signal caller in Ryan Fitzpatrick go into the Superdome and unleash a perfect QB rating to the tune of 417 yards passing and five touchdowns in leading the Bucs to an upset win over the Saints.

The Browns snapping their 17-game losing streak by… not winning.

A tie for the first time on opening day since 1971.

The Dolphins and Titans playing a 7-hour, 8 minute marathon (due to weather delays) - the longest game since the 1970 merger (Elias).

All seven first year head coaches losing their debuts (see more below).

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers returning from injury in the second half to overcome a 20-point fourth quarter deficit against the Bears.

4. How is Nathan Peterman still starting?

Bills starting QB Nathan Peterman continued his woeful play behind center on Sunday, completing just 5-of-18 passes for 24 yards, including two interceptions in a 47-3 loss to the Ravens. In his three starts with the Bills, he has averaged just 49 yards per game, completed just 38.1 percent of his passes, thrown one TD to seven INTs, and had a passer rating of 16.8 (NFLResearch). Better yet, Peterman has yet to finish a game in which he has started. I understand the Bills don’t have a lot around him, but how is this guy still a starter in the NFL?

3. Only the Browns.

How many teams would snap a lengthy losing streak by tying? Not even six takeaways was enough to get a win. In fact, since the Browns returned to the NFL, teams with a (+5) turnover margin or better are 132-4-1 (Barnwell). The Browns are now responsible for two of the losses and the tie after Sunday. What does Cleveland have to do?!

2. Debuts denied.

It isn’t easy being a newbie. Seven teams – Arizona, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, New York [Giants], Oakland, and Tennessee – entered the 2018 season with new head coaches. In week 1, all seven lost, marking the worst record by a group of new head coaches in NFL history (NFLResearch). Arizona, Detroit, and Oakland were each blown out on their home turf (outscored by a combined 105-36), while Chicago and Matt Nagy had the most heartbreaking loss of the week, squandering a 20-point fourth quarter lead by surrendering 21 points in the final quarter to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

1. Don’t overreact. It’s only one week!

It happens every year. Week 1 comes to conclusion and we all want to rush to judgment on predictions based on the results. Don’t buy into it. Last season saw the Saints start 0-2, only to reel off eight straight wins and 11 of their next 14. It also saw the Chiefs pummel the Patriots on opening night, beat the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles the following week, start the season 5-0, then lose six of their next seven. So even though Fitz-magic and Uncle Sam (Darnold) came out of the gates on fire in week 1, don’t hop on the bandwagon just yet. It’s a league that is unpredictable on any given Sunday, but a league that becomes more predictable as the season progresses.  

NFL Mock Draft 1.0

FOOTBALL IS BACK.

And with it comes expanded coverage (ESPN, NFL Network, & Fox), a new location (AT&T Stadium), and of course...increased drama. 

The 2018 NFL Draft has finally arrived. And fans are once again reigning with optimism of the possibility of unproven rookies becoming stars and turning their franchises around. 

(NFL.com)

In what has become one of the most anticipated (and impossible to predict) drafts in recent memory, here is my shot on how the first round will shake out come Thursday night:

1. Cleveland Browns – Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

It’s no secret with the Browns. They desperately need a franchise signal caller (28 different QBs have started since they returned in ’99). Acquiring seven-year veteran Tyrod Taylor to mast the ship in the short term isn’t a bad scenario, but this is a franchise that needs to strike gold with this selection.

Dorsey begins the rebuild by taking the most accurate (and brass) passer in the field. 

2. New York Giants – Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

This is a prime spot for a chance to select Eli’s successor, especially if Darnold is available (& if the rumors are true that they are enamored with him). But with the Giants in a situation to win now, they select the best player in the draft, giving the offense an impressive nucleus of skill players for years to come (Odell Beckham 25, Sterling Shepard 24, Evan Engram 23, and Barkley 21).  

3. New York Jets (from Colts) – Sam Darnold, QB, USC

Still searching for its franchise QB to compete in the Patriot-dominate AFC East, the Jets opt for the draft’s 'safest' and most complete passer.

4. Cleveland Browns – Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State

Word is that the Browns are looking to shop this pick (not again!?). At some point, you've got to build a roster with elite talent. Here, the Land grabs the best defensive player in the draft to pair with Garrett -- forming one of the most formidable fronts for years to come.

5. Buffalo Bills (projected trade with Denver) – Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

GM John Elway said he is open to shopping this pick, and with two of the top four QBs still available at this point, the Bills move up to grab the most athletic passer in the class – in hopes of grooming him into its next franchise QB.

6. Indianapolis Colts (from Jets) – Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

It wouldn’t be surprising to see another trade in this spot, especially if a QB is taken at #5. But the Colts need blue-chip talent in the middle of its D. Smith provides exactly that for new HC Frank Reich.  

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Derwin James, S, Florida State

In a division loaded with top QBs (Brees, Ryan, Newton), adding an explosive player like James gives the Bucs much needed depth in the secondary and in rush defense.  

8. Chicago Bears – Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame

New Bears line coach Harry Hiestand (formerly Notre Dame’s line coach) reunites with his standout guard – a perfect fit for Matt Nagy’s offense. The windy city nabs a Hall of Fame capable mauler for the next decade.

9. Green Bay Packers (projected trade with San Fran) – Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama

Green Bay needs help in the secondary (23^rd in pass defense). They make a move to snag the versatile Fitzpatrick who can play both corner and safety.

10. Arizona Cardinals (projected trade with Oakland) – Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

Just last year, the Cardinals surpassed on Deshaun Watson & Pat Mahomes, when they were unwilling to move up to snag either. This year, GM Steve Keim delivers, snagging their QB of the future in this draft’s most pro-ready passer.

11. Miami Dolphins – Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech

With his stock rising by the day, it’d be shocking if Edmunds falls outside the top 10 (although possible with a run on quarterbacks). The Phins land an instant playmaker who fills an immediate need.

12. Denver Broncos (projected trade with Buffalo) – Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

GM John Elway trades down and still adds an elite talent. Ward adds much-needed depth to a secondary that lost veteran Aqib Talib in the offseason.

13. Washington Redskins – Vita Vea, DT, Washington

The Skins need help across the board on the defensive side of the ball. Vea, the athletic 347-pounder fills a gap up front.

14. San Francisco 49ers (projected trade with Green Bay) – Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA

The Niners desperately need some help with their pass rush (just 30 sacks a season ago, tied for 26^th). Davenport is raw, but with time his length and athleticism could give opposing QBs fits. Harold Landry could also be in play here.

15. Oakland Raiders (projected trade with Arizona) – Harold Landry, DE, BC

In his return as head man, Gruden inherits a woeful defense (23^rd in total defense, 24^th in sacks, & 32^nd in INTs). They snag Landry to bolster the pass rush alongside Mack.

16. Baltimore Ravens – Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

Baltimore was decimated with o-line injuries a season ago. In free agency, they lost their starting center and released their starting tackle. McGlinchey fills an immediate need on the ride side of the line.

17. Los Angeles Chargers – Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

Constructing elite defensive lines is slowly becoming a norm to prominent contenders. Selecting Payne gives the Bolts some serious depth, adding to a front of Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Corey Liuget, and an aging Brandon Mebane (33).

18. New England Patriots (projected trade with Seattle) – Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Bill Belichick almost always goes defense, especially with Brady at the helm who can make any offense look good. Now, with Brady at the tail end of his career, he goes against the grain and selects Brady’s successor, paving the way to what will be seen as a new era of NFL QBs.

19. Dallas Cowboys – Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

Releasing Dez, it only makes sense to give Dak some weapons. Sutton instantly becomes a reliable target. 

20. Detroit Lions – Will Hernandez, G, UTEP

Physical at the point of attack, Hernandez is exactly what the new coaching staff in Detroit is looking for. He instantly improves a porous rushing attack – one that hasn’t seen a 100-yard rusher in a game since 2013. D-line also makes sense. 

21. Cincinnati Bengals – Frank Ragnow, C, Arkansas

In the past, when Dalton and co. were at their best, they had an elite o-line headed by stalwart tackle Andrew Whitworth (now in LA). Adding the rock-solid Ragnow to the acquisition of Cordy Glenn, gives the Bengals a much-improved front.

22. Denver Broncos (projected trade with Buffalo) – James Daniels, OL, Iowa

The Broncos give Keenum some help up front, adding the versatile Daniels -- who can play center or guard at the next level.

23. Seattle Seahawks (projected trade with New England) – Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville

The departure of Richard Sherman leaves a gap on the perimeter. Alexander isn’t as talented, but he can be groomed into a great starter.   

24. Carolina Panthers – D. J. Moore, WR, Maryland

The Panthers could go a number of ways with this selection (TE/WR/CB). They opt to give Cam Newton some much needed help in the passing game by giving him a #1 receiver.  

25. Tennessee Titans – Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

New HC Mike Vrabel gets a versatile man in the middle to lead the defense.  

26. Atlanta Falcons – Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

Dan Quinn continues to build an athletic defense as Bryan provides the size, strength, and quickness to make an impact from day one.

27. New Orleans Saints – Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

Surrounding Brees with more playmakers is never a bad idea in the Big Easy. Ridley is the perfect fit for this offense and a steal at this point in the draft. 

28. Pittsburgh Steelers – Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State

For the fifth time in six years, the Steelers select a LB in the first round. The Boise State standout 

29. Jacksonville Jaguars – Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina

The perfect scenario for the Jags, who land a premiere talent at a position of need, giving Blake Bortles a huge (6-foot-5) red zone target.

30. Minnesota Vikings – Isaiah Wynn, G, Georgia

The Vikes could use some help in protecting its newly acquired QB Kirk Cousins. Wynn adds some much needed help to the interior offensive line.

31. New England Patriots – Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA

After losing Solder in free agency, they snag his replacement in Miller who may have the best movement skills in this class.

32.  Cleveland Browns (projected trade with Philly) – Sony Michel, RB, Georgia

Philadelphia needs to grab some extra picks (with no second or third rounder). The Browns need playmakers on offense. They swoop in to grab an instant weapon in the backfield.