The Trilogy: Cavs v. Warriors 3.0

Ahh. The NBA playoffs have finally arrived. For the first time all post-season, a competitive series is upon us. And with it comes the inevitable. For the third consecutive season, it will be the Cavs and Warriors vying for the coveted Larry O’Brien trophy. While most trilogies fail to live up to the hype of its past chapters, this very well may be the exception. Seven All-stars between the two teams. With one title a piece, it’s a rivalry only intensifying with each encounter. Golden State seeking revenge from a meltdown a year ago, while LeBron looking to add to a growing G.O.A.T legacy.

New to this series is the fact that each side has added new weapons to their arsenal. Most notably, the Dubs have added former MVP Kevin Durant to their disposal. While Cleveland didn’t make as big a splash, they added key role players in Kyle Korver and Deron Williams, who could be significant factors off the bench.  

(Basketballfinals.org)

                        

Golden State comes in virtually untouchable. They’ve won 27 of their last 28 games. They arrive being the first team in NBA history to win its first twelve playoff games, and they’ve done it with ease. All but two of their wins were by double digits, with an average margin of victory of 16.3 points. The addition of the aforementioned Durant makes this team a nightmare matchup, as four all-stars can beat you in multiple ways. And all four have the ability to take over a game. In their last nine games, they’ve trailed for only 63 minutes out of a possible 432 (nba.com)! While much is said about their elite offense, the Warriors have boasted the number one defensive rating so far in the post-season (99.1 points allowed per 100 possessions). They’ve held each of their first three opponents to under 48% in effective field goal percentage. If they can duplicate that in the Finals, the Warriors will once again raise the trophy.

Much like the Warriors, Cleveland comes in just as hot, winning 12 of 13 in the postseason, with an average margin of victory of 14.2 points. The offense has been the catalyst, scoring at an absurd rate of 120.7 points per 100 possessions, number one overall. They’ve produced an effective field goal percentage of 59.8 percent while making 14.6 3-pointers a game, both tops in NBA history (nba.com). The defense? They’ve flipped the switch tremendously from the regular season, where they ranked 22^nd. In the conference semis and finals, they ranked second and first, respectively in defensive rating. Obviously, the Warriors will pose the greatest threat the Cavs have seen to date (possibly ever) and rightfully so, but if the offense remains hot, getting just enough stops could be the difference in a win or loss.

A look into the Big Three so far this postseason:

	PPG	RPG	APG			PPG	RPG	APG
L. James	32.5	8.0	7.0		S. Curry	28.6	5.5	5.6
K. Irving	24.5	2.4	5.6		K. Durant	25.2	7.8	3.7
K. Love	17.2	10.4	1.9		D. Green	13.9	8.7	7.2

Four Factors that favor the Cavs

4. Golden State grabbed only 69.1 percent of available defensive rebounds against the Spurs, the worst mark in the conference finals. Cavs aren’t a great offensive rebounding team, but Tristan Thompson is a workhorse on the offensive glass (4.2 ORG) and the only player to have three games of at least seven offensive boards in the post-season. That could be huge in creating extra possessions for the wine and gold. 

3. LeBron is 18-5 lifetime in head-to-head matchups with Kevin Durant, including 4-1 in the Finals.

2. Only three of the Warriors twelve playoff games have been within five points in the last five minutes of the game. Golden State hasn’t been tested thus far in the playoffs, particularly in high pressure moments. They haven’t been in a game where they’ve had to rely on someone to come through in the clutch. On the other side, the Cavs won their first four games by single digits, all coming down to the wire. And don’t forget they have Mr. Clutch, Kyrie Irving, who lives for big shot opportunities (Game 7 winner in last year’s finals and Christmas day winner this year). Maybe this is a stretch, but it can be easy walking through the playoffs without being tested. If the Cavs can keep games close, they very well may have the edge.

1. LeBron James. He’s made seven straight trips to the Finals for a reason. He’s the best player in the game. And just when it looks like he’s reached the summit, he takes his game to another level. On a tear through the first three rounds, James is averaging 32.5 points (on 56.6% shooting, 42.1% from three), 7 assists, and 8 rebounds per game. If those numbers hold true for the Finals, it only helps the Cavs chances.

Four Factors that favor the Warriors

4. Golden State leads the postseason in secondary assists with 9.1 per game. This may seem like a bizarre statistic, but it means they’re exceptional at setting up teammates to score by making the extra pass. As we saw in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavs struggled at times to defend the Celtics ball movement. That was a team without an all-star. The Warriors possess four star options, and when they get it going, they are almost unbeatable. They are also more likely to knock down open jumpers.

3. Draymond Green. Many believe had Green not been suspended in Game 5 of last year’s finals, the Warriors would have won the title. We’ll obviously never know. Regardless, there is no denying Green’s impact on this team. He is arguably the most versatile big in the league and the Dubs most important piece. Golden State has allowed just 94.4 points per 100 possessions with Green on the floor, and 111.9 with him on the bench (nba.com). That’s a difference of over 17 points! His defense and attitude is what sparks this team.

2. Lethal starting lineup. The Warriors starting five (Curry, Durant, Green, Pachulia, Thompson) has outscored its opponents by 32.6 points per 100 possessions, by far the best mark in the playoffs, and +15.3 over the Cavs to date. Durant is a major reason why. Obviously, it’d be hard to see this trend continue against far superior talent than what they’ve faced, but there is no denying this is a potent lineup that can hurt the opposition in so many ways.  

1. Home court. The Warriors are a ridiculous 114-9 (92.7%) at home over the last three regular seasons, and 27-5 (84.4%) in the playoffs. Having a great team certainly helps, but playing at the Oracle has become a major advantage over the years. If there is a team that knows how to win in Oakland however, it’d be the Cavs, who have won three in the past two finals. That said, it still remains one of the best home court advantages in the league, and after last season, these fans need no motivation.

The NBA Finals have arrived. KD looking for his first title. LeBron and co. trying to go back-to-back. It seems no one is giving the defending champions a shot. Sounds familiar doesn't it? Doubting LeBron James can be a scary thing.

The third encounter is here. Buckle up.