Ahh. The NBA playoffs
have finally arrived. For the first time all post-season, a competitive series
is upon us. And with it comes the inevitable. For the third consecutive season,
it will be the Cavs and Warriors vying for the coveted Larry O’Brien trophy. While
most trilogies fail to live up to the hype of its past chapters, this very well
may be the exception. Seven All-stars between the two teams. With
one title a piece, it’s a rivalry only intensifying with each encounter. Golden
State seeking revenge from a meltdown a year ago, while LeBron looking to add
to a growing G.O.A.T legacy.
New to this series is the fact that each side has added new
weapons to their arsenal. Most notably, the Dubs have added former MVP Kevin
Durant to their disposal. While Cleveland didn’t make as big a splash, they
added key role players in Kyle Korver and Deron Williams, who could be
significant factors off the bench.
 |
| (Basketballfinals.org) |
Golden State comes in virtually untouchable. They’ve won 27
of their last 28 games. They arrive being the first team in NBA history to win
its first twelve playoff games, and they’ve done it with ease. All but two of
their wins were by double digits, with an average margin of victory of 16.3
points. The addition of the aforementioned Durant makes this team a nightmare
matchup, as four all-stars can beat you in multiple ways. And all four have the
ability to take over a game. In their last nine games, they’ve trailed for only
63 minutes out of a possible 432 (nba.com)! While much is said about their
elite offense, the Warriors have boasted the number one defensive rating so far
in the post-season (99.1 points allowed per 100 possessions). They’ve held each
of their first three opponents to under 48% in effective field goal percentage.
If they can duplicate that in the Finals, the Warriors will once again raise
the trophy.
Much like the Warriors, Cleveland comes in just as hot, winning
12 of 13 in the postseason, with an average margin of victory of 14.2 points. The
offense has been the catalyst, scoring at an absurd rate of 120.7 points per
100 possessions, number one overall. They’ve produced an effective field goal percentage
of 59.8 percent while making 14.6 3-pointers a game, both tops in NBA history (nba.com). The defense? They’ve
flipped the switch tremendously from the regular season, where they ranked 22nd.
In the conference semis and finals, they ranked second and first, respectively
in defensive rating. Obviously, the Warriors will pose the greatest threat the
Cavs have seen to date (possibly ever) and rightfully so, but if the offense
remains hot, getting just enough stops could be the difference in a win or loss.
A look into the Big Three so far this postseason:
PPG
|
RPG
|
APG
|
PPG
|
RPG
|
APG
|
|||
L. James
|
32.5
|
8.0
|
7.0
|
S. Curry
|
28.6
|
5.5
|
5.6
|
|
K. Irving
|
24.5
|
2.4
|
5.6
|
K. Durant
|
25.2
|
7.8
|
3.7
|
|
K. Love
|
17.2
|
10.4
|
1.9
|
D. Green
|
13.9
|
8.7
|
7.2
|
Four Factors that
favor the Cavs
4. Golden State grabbed
only 69.1 percent of available defensive rebounds against the Spurs, the worst mark in the conference finals. Cavs aren’t a great offensive rebounding team, but
Tristan Thompson is a workhorse on the offensive glass (4.2 ORG) and the only
player to have three games of at least seven offensive boards in the
post-season. That could be huge in creating extra possessions for the wine and
gold.
3. LeBron is 18-5
lifetime in head-to-head matchups with Kevin Durant, including 4-1 in the Finals.
2. Only three of the
Warriors twelve playoff games have been within five points in the last five
minutes of the game. Golden State hasn’t been tested thus far in the playoffs,
particularly in high pressure moments. They haven’t been in a game where
they’ve had to rely on someone to come through in the clutch. On the other
side, the Cavs won their first four games by single digits, all coming down to
the wire. And don’t forget they have Mr. Clutch, Kyrie Irving, who lives for
big shot opportunities (Game 7 winner in last year’s finals and Christmas day
winner this year). Maybe this is a stretch, but it can be easy walking through
the playoffs without being tested. If the Cavs can keep games close, they very
well may have the edge.
1. LeBron James. He’s
made seven straight trips to the Finals for a reason. He’s the best player in
the game. And just when it looks like he’s reached the summit, he takes his
game to another level. On a tear through the first three rounds, James is averaging
32.5 points (on 56.6% shooting, 42.1% from three), 7 assists, and 8 rebounds
per game. If those numbers hold true for the Finals, it only helps the Cavs
chances.
Four Factors that
favor the Warriors
4. Golden State leads the postseason in secondary assists
with 9.1 per game. This may seem like a bizarre statistic, but it means they’re
exceptional at setting up teammates to score by making the extra pass. As we
saw in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavs struggled at times to defend the
Celtics ball movement. That was a team without an all-star. The Warriors
possess four star options, and when they get it going, they are almost
unbeatable. They are also more likely to knock down open jumpers.
3. Draymond Green. Many believe had Green not been suspended
in Game 5 of last year’s finals, the Warriors would have won the title. We’ll
obviously never know. Regardless, there is no denying Green’s impact on this
team. He is arguably the most versatile big in the league and the Dubs most important piece. Golden State has allowed just
94.4 points per 100 possessions with Green on the floor, and 111.9 with him on
the bench (nba.com). That’s a difference of over 17 points! His defense and
attitude is what sparks this team.
2. Lethal starting lineup. The Warriors starting five
(Curry, Durant, Green, Pachulia, Thompson) has outscored its opponents by 32.6
points per 100 possessions, by far the best mark in the playoffs, and +15.3
over the Cavs to date. Durant is a major reason why. Obviously, it’d be hard to see this trend continue against
far superior talent than what they’ve faced, but there is no denying this is a
potent lineup that can hurt the opposition in so many ways.
1. Home court. The Warriors are a ridiculous 114-9 (92.7%)
at home over the last three regular seasons, and 27-5 (84.4%) in the playoffs.
Having a great team certainly helps, but playing at the Oracle has become a
major advantage over the years. If there is a team that knows how to win in
Oakland however, it’d be the Cavs, who have won three in the past two finals.
That said, it still remains one of the best home court advantages in the
league, and after last season, these fans need no motivation.
The NBA Finals have arrived. KD looking for his first title.
LeBron and co. trying to go back-to-back. It seems no one is giving the defending champions a shot. Sounds familiar doesn't it? Doubting LeBron James can be a scary thing.
The third encounter is here. Buckle up.
