Welcome to Super Bowl LIV.
Two franchises with rich history collide, each trying to end significant SB droughts - the 49ers haven’t won in 25 years, while you’d have to double that number for the Chiefs.
Two head coaches looking to rewrite history and erase the sting of years’ past. One, fresh off a devastating loss as OC (2017) that resonates all too well. The other, an opportunity that has been few and far between - just his second SB appearance in 21 seasons (first since 2004). For both, a story of persistence in fulfilling a lifelong dream.
And for one, the opportunity to hoist the Lombardi for the first time.
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| For the 11th time, the big game will be played in Miami (nbcsports.com). |
What does history say?
Defense over offense? In each of the last seven Super Bowls, the team with the higher ranked total offense has lost (LAR, NE, ATL, CAR, SEA, DEN, and SF). The 49ers enter with the higher ranked offense (#4). Chiefs ranked sixth.
Favorite or Underdog? The underdog has won eight of the last 12 Super Bowls, including six out of the last eight. San Francisco enters the game as slight underdogs.
Coin toss? Teams to win the coin toss have lost five consecutive Super Bowls (the Seahawks were the last team to win the coin toss and be crowned champions, NFLR).
Does success in the regular season translate? History would suggest that it doesn’t. Per NFL Research, since 2000 (including ties), 9 of 24 teams who were the last undefeated team in the regular season made the Super Bowl, but the 2006 Colts are the only team to win it. The 49ers were the last team standing without a loss this season (8-0). And for what it’s worth, the team with the better regular season record is just 2-11 in the last 13 Super Bowls. The Niners were 13-3, the Chiefs 12-4.
Pass heavy teams? The Chiefs have gone with a pass play 61.4% of the time this season, including playoffs. Per ESPN Stats, the only teams with higher % prior to playing in a Super Bowl were the 2008 Cardinals (63.1%) and the 2009 Colts (62.8%). Both teams lost in the Super Bowl.
Uniforms? Oddly enough, a factor that has increasingly become a predictor over the years is uniforms. 13 out of the last 15 Super Bowl winners have worn white jerseys. San Francisco will don the whites. They are 2-0 when wearing white tops in the big game.
Game Preview
Teams that are currently in the NFC West & AFC West have met in the Super Bowl three times. Current NFC West teams have won all three by an average of 34.3 points (NFLR).
This Super Bowl will mark the highest combined career winning percentage by opposing QBs (Min. 25 starts, including playoffs) in NFL history (NFLR):
SB LIV SF Jimmy Garoppolo KC Patrick Mahomes .794
SB XLIX NE Tom Brady SEA Russell Wilson .766
SB LIII NE Tom Brady LAR Jared Goff .755
One thing is almost guaranteed: expect it to be close. As a starter, Patrick Mahomes has never lost a game by more than seven points. Meanwhile, the 49ers three losses this season were by a combined 13 points (3, 3, & 7).
Fun fact: This is the first time a Super Bowl will feature two teams with red as a primary uniform color (CBSSports).
San Francisco 49ers (15-3)
All-time Super Bowl record: 5-1. A win would tie San Francisco with Pittsburgh and New England for most Super Bowl victories in NFL history (6).
Why you should root for them: Feel good/redemption stories in HC Kyle Shanahan & RB Raheem Mostert.
The last time the former reached the Super Bowl, he was acting as offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons. You know the rest of the story: he and the Falcons endured the worst loss in SB history - many criticized his questionable play-calls down the stretch - allowing the Patriots to come back from a 28-3 deficit. Now, in just his third season as head man, Shanahan gets a shot at redemption. A win would also follow in his father’s footsteps of a SB title (Mike - won back-to-back titles with Denver and as OC with Niners) - making them the first father-son head coach duo to achieve such a feat.
For Mostert: is there a better story heading into the SB? The fifth-year back was cut by six teams in the span of two seasons, but his perseverance landed him a roster spot with the Niners in 2017. On Championship Sunday, after an injury to starter Tevin Coleman, Mostert was called into action. All he did was rush for 220 yards and 4 touchdowns - becoming the only player in NFL history to record such a game (NFLR).
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| There isn't a more complete tight-end in the game than Kittle. He could be the x-factor on Sunday (nbcbayarea.com). |
Three keys for the 49ers:
1. Run the ball. It’s no secret. The 49ers love pounding the rock. And it ignites the entire offense (and team) when they’re able to wear down the opposition behind the hog mollies up front. Much like the majority of the regular season, the Niners dominated the first two rounds of the playoffs with a punishing run game. Shanahan’s group piled up 471 yards on a staggering 89 carries, while attempting only 27 passes in those two games. Keeping Mahomes on the sidelines by churning out yards (and the clock) on the ground could be the difference. Not to mention, the 49ers have feasted on bad run defenses in 2019, scoring 51 points on the 32nd-ranked Panthers, 31 points on the 30th-ranked Browns and 41 points on the 28th-ranked Bengals (ESPN). The Chiefs ranked 26th in the regular season.
A stat to keep in mind: the 49ers are 10-0 this season (including both playoff wins) when they carry the ball at least 30 times in a game.
2. Defense. Robert Saleh’s group has been ferocious this postseason. Downright dominant. In two games, the defense has recorded eight sacks and five takeaways, while allowing an average of 15 points and 253 yards (42 rushing). It starts with a front four that boasts four first round picks - Dee Ford (former Chief), Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa. On the back-end, three-time All-pro defensive back Richard Sherman (INT in each of the two playoff games) is an added bonus. When rushing four, the aforementioned group is getting pressure on a third of QB dropbacks (33.5%). Talk about a luxury. Especially against a player of Mahomes’ caliber - whose numbers are off the charts against the blitz (per NFLResearch):
Facing an offense that is clicking on all cylinders (averaging 43 points and 419 yards in the playoffs), getting pressure with four will be a major factor in trying to disrupt Mahomes and the Chiefs elite speed.
A stat to keep in mind: the 49ers have an NFL-high 57 sacks this season (including playoffs) - the seventh team in the last 15 seasons to enter a Super Bowl with more than 55 sacks (ESPNStats). The previous six all won.
3. Jimmy Garoppolo. Everyone seems to be piling on the third-year starter, claiming him as a ‘liability’, or the one player that could keep San Francisco from winning the big game. On the contrary, he may be the one weapon that could take them over the top. Yes, he has only thrown 26 passes this postseason. But the Niners have been up so big in both those games that it didn’t make sense to pass. A deeper dive shows that Jimmy G was the only QB in the league to rank in the top five in each of the following: passing TDs (27), yards per attempt (8.4), and completion percentage (69.1%, NFLNetwork). And when the game was on the line? Garoppolo had the best QBR in one-score fourth quarter games in the entire league. Does out-dueling Drew Brees in the Big Easy in Week 14 ring a bell (26-of-35, 349 yards, 4 TDs, including game-winning drive)? Not to mention, he’s 23-5 as a starter. In a potential shootout, #10 will have to prove he can deliver on the biggest stage. There's not a better opportunity to silence the critics.
A stat to keep in mind: No one was better at converting third downs than Garoppolo this season. He converted a league-best 50% of his third down throws. That included not one, but two 3rd-and-16 conversions on the game-winning drive against the Rams in Week 16.
Kansas City Chiefs (14-4)
All-time Super Bowl record: 1-1. A win would end the second-longest Lombardi Trophy drought among teams that have already won a Super Bowl. Only the New York Jets (51 years) have endured a longer stretch in between titles (CBS).
Why you should root for them: Andy Reid. Andy Reid. Andy Reid. And the rarity that is the big game to this franchise.
For Reid: 21 seasons as a head coach, 207 regular-season wins - seventh-most all-time, 28 postseason games (this will be his 29th), but no Super Bowl title. He is the winningest coach in NFL history without a championship. He has been to the big game once (2004 Eagles) and lost. Can he get the monkey off his back? No one deserves a title more than the offensive wizard.
For the franchise: it is just their third trip ever to the Super Bowl, and their first in 50 years (since 1970)! They are 1-1 in those games, with their lone win coming in 1970 (23-7 win over Minnesota in SB IV). An added reason: the 49ers have five titles... they can spare one.
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| Mahomes ability to scramble makes it even tougher to stop the Chiefs high-octane offense (the athletic). |
Three keys for the Chiefs:
1. Patrick Mahomes. Not surprisingly, the Chiefs go as Mahomes go. And no player is hotter than the third-year gun-slinger. In his two postseason starts, the 2018 MVP has been near flawless, if not a model of greatness (and consistency):
Divisional Round vs. HOU: 23-of-35, for 321 yards, 5 TD; 7 carries, 53 yards
Conference Champ vs. TEN: 23-of-35, for 294 yards, 3 TD; 8 carries, 53 yards, TD
Mahomes became the second QB in NFL history to record multiple games of 250+ pass yards, 3+ pass TDs, and 50+ rush yards in a single postseason (NFLR). Ironically, the other was Joe Montana with the 49ers. His underrated ability to scramble is an added dimension that defenses have to account for. And with the speed that the Chiefs’ playmakers possess, that makes him and the offense all the more dangerous. Can he keep it going against the league’s best defense? For KC to hoist the Lombardi for the first time since 1970, it will take another elite performance from their star.
A stat to keep in mind: in all four of Mahomes’ career postseason starts, the Chiefs have scored at least 31 points. The 49ers have given up at least 31 points just twice all season (Saints & Rams).
2. Stop the run. Jimmy Garoppolo has yet to be forced into a high pressure situation in the postseason. He showed he’s capable in the regular season, but the Super Bowl is a different beast. How he will deal with pressure on the biggest stage remains to be seen. Forcing the game into his hands might be the Chiefs best option. That begins with stopping a run game that has flourished all season long (ranked second in the regular season) - especially in the playoffs.
In the Conference Championship, the Chiefs put an end to Derrick Henry’s remarkable run, holding him to 69 yards on 19 carries. Now comes an even bigger challenge. The 49ers are averaging 235.5 yards on 44.5 carries per game in the postseason behind an impressive offensive line. Not to mention, full-back Kyle Juszczyk - who is as versatile as they come at the position - and TE George Kittle - who is as good a blocker as he is a receiver. Both allow Shanahan to bolster his creativity in play-calling, particularly on the ground.
Despite ranking 26th (128 ypg) in the regular season against the run, the Chiefs have drastically improved since, allowing an average of 93.6 yards in their last eight games, while holding each of their postseason opponents under 100 yards on the ground (an average of 90 yards per game). They must stop the run first and foremost. After all, the odds of winning a shootout would have to favor Mahomes.
A stat to keep in mind: the Niners have not lost a game this season when carrying the ball at least 30 times (10-0). Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 2-2 when they allow an opponent to run the ball that often, but 12-2 when holding a team under 30 carries per game.
3. Run the ball. How many times have you heard the following: the game is won or lost in the trenches? Well that’s because it’s true, and for the Chiefs to have success, they’ll need to establish some sort of a run game to keep an attacking defense on its toes. After all, giving the most dangerous QB in the game an added dimension of a run game is a major advantage. If KC can run the ball with success, their odds of winning increase substantially. They haven’t lost a game all season when they’ve rushed for at least 100 yards.
A stat to keep in mind: The Chiefs are 9-0 this season when rushing for at least 100 yards, including both playoff wins.
Prediction:
The Chiefs have the more explosive offense and quarterback. The 49ers have the more complete team. The latter almost always comes through in these situations. I'll be rooting for KC, but I think SF does just enough.
San Francisco 33, Kansas City 31
