In 2002, Sean McVay was excelling as a dual-threat QB in high school. That same year, the legend
of another QB – Tom Brady – took flight as he led a game-winning drive against the Rams in Super Bowl
XXXVI.
Fast forward 17 years, and its Brady vs. the Rams,
part II – with the former high school star trying to orchestrate a game plan to
take down one of the game’s all-time greats in Super Bowl LIII. Could the Patriots
dynasty begin and end with the Rams?
It’s a youth movement vs. an all-time duo come Sunday. In
terms of experience, a mismatch of epic proportions (via SportsCenter):
33 years, 283 days: the largest age gap of any head
coaching matchup in Super Bowl history.
17 years, 72 days: the largest age gap of any starting QB
matchup in Super Bowl history.
108 years: Belichick and Brady’s combined age – 51 years older
than McVay & Goff (57).
One thing is guaranteed... If the Rams win, McVay (33) will become the youngest head coach to ever win the Super Bowl. If the Patriots win, Belichick (66) will become the oldest.
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| (sportslogos.net) |
What does history say?
This will be the seventh Super Bowl rematch (Patriots
defeated Rams in SB XXXVI). In three out of the last four rematches, the team
that won the first meeting also won the second (the Eagles bucked this trend
last year).
One possession? In the Patriots eight SB appearances under Belichick/Brady, every one of them has been decided by one possession, with the average margin of victory 4.3 points (largest 8 and lowest 3 on four occasions).
Defense over offense? In each of the last six Super Bowls,
the team with the higher ranked total offense has lost (NE, ATL, CAR, SEA, DEN,
and SF). The Rams enter with the higher ranked offense (#2).
Favorite or Underdog? The underdog has won eight of the last
11 Super Bowls, including six out of the last seven. The Patriots are favored
once again (1-3 in the last four in which they were favored).
Uniforms? Oddly enough, a factor that has increasingly
become a predictor over the years is uniforms. 12 out of the last 14 Super Bowl
winners have worn white jerseys. New England will once again don the whites. In
the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots are 3-1 in the SB when wearing white tops
(last year was their lone loss).
The Favorite: New England Patriots
Stop if you’ve seen this before: a Super Bowl involving the
Patriots. The class of the AFC is making its 11th trip (ninth under Belichick)
to the big game – third in a row – seeking a tie with the Steelers for the most
Lombardi’s in NFL history with six. The ageless Tom Brady continues to grow his
legend – he’s made it to the Super Bowl in half (9) of the 18 seasons he’s been
a pro (17 if you remove his missed season due to injury). His playoff
career alone would be better than Jared Goff’s three-year career all-together
(NFL):
QB Wins: Brady 29, Goff 26
Pass Yards: Brady 10,917, Goff 10,323
Pass TD: Brady 73, Goff 67
Game-Winning Drives: Brady 12, Goff 6
At age 41, TB12’s mastery of the game continues. And it’s
been the Pats game plans – running the football and the quick passing game – that
have bolstered his recent success. In the win over the Chiefs, the Patriots recorded
a staggering 94 offensive plays (to the Chiefs 47) for 524 yards, while
possessing the ball for nearly 44 minutes. Rookie RB Sony Michel – the feature
back – rushed for a game-high 113 yards and two scores on 29 carries – becoming
one of only five running backs in NFL history to record multiple games of
100-plus rushing yards and two-plus rushing touchdowns in a single postseason
(NFL.com).
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| Rookie RB Sony Michel has been the Pats difference maker on the ground (sunjournal.com). |
Facing another high-octane opponent in the Rams, expect another
heavy dose of the ground-and-pound attack from Belichick’s three-headed stable
of Michel-Rex Burkhead-James White. In the postseason, New England is averaging
a whopping 41 carries for 165.5 yards per game on the ground. In fact, the
Patriots are 18-3 in the postseason (under Belichick/Brady) when rushing for
100 yards or more in a game (11-7 when they don’t), and 11-0 this season when
reaching that plateau (including both playoff wins). Meanwhile, the Rams ceded
122.3 rushing yards per game during the regular season (23rd in the NFL). Granted
LA has been much better at defending the run in the postseason (49 yards per),
but it’s no secret the Patriots will have to find success in the running game
to hoist an NFL record-tying sixth Lombardi.
Per usual, Belichick will adapt a defensive game plan to
take away what the Rams do best. It should be predicated on stopping the run – LA
has rushed for a league-high 774 yards in its last four. In effect, the Rams are
12-0 this season (including playoffs) when rushing for 100 yards or more (3-3
when they don’t). New England must formulate a plan to keep Gurley and Anderson from finding
their groove.
In pass defense, expect the Pats to force Goff to make quick
decisions by combining extra pressure with bump-and-run man coverage. New
England has prospered in said alignment throughout the season, allowing a
completion rate of 39.6 percent and a passer rating of 50.9 when aligned in
press coverage (NFL.com). Even in standard man coverage, they hold opponents to
a league-low 53.7 percent completion rate (ranked first), allowing just 6.8
yards per attempt (third, NFL.com). Goff has actually excelled against man this
season, completing close to 60 percent of his passes, with a passer rating of
104.1 and a TD-to-INT ratio of 10:1 (PFF). It would come as no surprise to see Belichick
wrinkle in more zone schemes to see how Goff responds. Either way, Belichick will plan numerous looks to try to throw off the young QB and takeaway his comfort in the pocket.
The Underdog: Los Angeles Rams
Much like last year, the Patriots opposition comes by way of
a young and inexperienced group – a second-year HC and a third-year QB making
just his fourth start in the playoffs. On paper, a complete mismatch. But as
the Eagles proved last year, none of it matters when stepping in between the
lines – where McVay’s group will seek to finally put to rest the notion that
they don’t belong (i.e. Saints no-call) and stun the experienced juggernaut
that is Brady-Belichick. A mighty task, but a possible one at that.
A major key for the offense is staying ahead of the chains –
making second & (especially) third downs more manageable. In particular, Goff
has struggled throughout the season on third down. In the postseason, he is
completing just 47.4 percent of his third-down pass attempts with a 61.7 passer
rating on such plays (NFL). And on plays of third-and-six or longer, Goff has committed
six turnovers (four interceptions, two lost fumbles) – the second most in the
league (NFL.com). Meanwhile, New England's defense has tallied five takeaways on
third-and-6-plus this season (tied for eighth-most). McVay must find ways to
keep the offense in manageable situations.
It starts with finding success on the ground (averaging a
league best 193.5 yards per game since week 16) and getting do-it-all running back Todd Gurley – who led
the league in rushing after 14 weeks – going early. The addition of 235-pound bulldozer
C.J. Anderson – most rushing yards per game since week 16 (116.5) – has given
the Rams a punishing downhill runner to spell one of the league’s best. The tandem’s
ability to keep the offense humming will be huge in dictating the flow of the
game and be critical in opening up the play-action pass – which translates to
opportunities for Goff and co.
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| Goff will need to out-dual one of the best this game has ever seen to bring a title back to LA (theramswire). |
The third year QB has incorporated play-action on 35 percent
of plays this season, the highest rate in the league (NFL). Meanwhile, New
England has allowed opposing passer ratings to increase by 28.4 points
(sixth-most) and opposing air yards per attempt to increase by 2.9 yards
(third-most, NFL) on such plays. Overall, the Patriots' defense has allowed a
league-high 13.5 air yards per attempt when facing play-action (NFL). Finding early
success in the running game will not only benefit the offense, but will help the
inexperienced Goff – and the rest of the offense – settle in.
For the defense, it begins with winning the battle in the
trenches. Ranked 23rd in the league against the run during the regular
season (allowing 122 yards per game), the defensive front has buckled down in
the two playoff wins – holding the NFL’s leading rusher (Ezekiel Elliott) to 47 yards
on 20 attempts, and arguably the league’s best tandem (Kamara-Ingram) to a
combined 46 yards on 17 carries. They welcome a different giant on Sunday: a
Patriots offensive line that hasn’t allowed a sack in 90 postseason pass
attempts and a running game that has rushed for 735 yards since week 16 (second
only to the Rams). Michel has been terrific in the postseason, averaging 121
yards on 27 carries.
Keeping the Patriots running game at bay will be crucial to getting
stops and forcing third-and-long situations – in turn paving way to the pass
rush. Behind Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald (20.5 sacks & 41 QB
hits), the Rams front led the NFL in interior pressure rate (16.6 percent), something
Brady has historically struggled with, including this season. His passer rating
when pressured off the edge: 118.7 (NFL.com). That number plummets to 63.1
when he gets pressure from the inside. If the Rams want any chance, they have
to find a way to make Brady uncomfortable up the middle. And they have to get off the field on third downs. The Patriots are converting a ridiculous 60.6 percent of third downs this postseason (NFL). There is nothing more demoralizing to a team than winning first and second down, only to see the chains move on third. Especially at a clip of over 50 percent.
The challenging (yet attainable) blueprint to beating the
Patriots:
1. Run the ball! New England is 9-10 when surrendering 25+
carries to the opposition in the postseason, while the Rams are 12-0 this
season when tallying 25+ rushes in a game.
2. Score 25 points. The Patriots are 7-7 when allowing the
opposition to score 25+ in the playoffs. The Rams averaged 32.9 points in the
regular season (28 in the postseason) and are 14-1 when reaching that plateau
this season.
3. Win the turnover battle. In the Brady/Belichick era, the
Patriots are a pedestrian 11-9 when they lose the TO battle in the postseason.
4. Keep New England under 20. Easier said than done and
something opponents rarely accomplish. But the Pats are 2-7 when held under 20
points. The Rams are 6-1 when holding their opponent to 20 points or less this
season.
5. Stop the run! The Pats are 11-7 (2-5 this season) when
held under the century mark in the Belichick postseason era. The Rams are 7-0
this season when keeping the run game at bay (including both playoff wins).
Prediction
The talk all week has been how Brady and Belichick are masters when it comes to understanding the game and taking away what the opposition does best. And who could argue with the success they've had - more Super Bowl appearances than any other franchise. But Sean McVay resembles a similar mantra - that of a future innovator ready to spoil the party.
The last team to hoist the Lombardi within five seasons of relocating? The '99 Rams, five seasons after moving from LA (NFL.com). The 2018 Rams, in their third season back in LA, follow suit... Sporting the same uniforms they did back in '99.
Rams 34, Patriots 31
