2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 12

Five takeaways

5. Teams heating up.

With just five weeks remaining, a number of teams are making postseason pushes with impressive winning streaks…

The Saints continue to roll, winning their 10th straight – a 31-17 drubbing of the Falcons – and currently hold a four-game lead on the Panthers in the NFC South.

The Texans have won eight in a row - the longest such streak in franchise history and the longest for a team after starting a season 0-3 in NFL history (NFLResearch).

Behind an impressive defense, the Bears have won five straight. Their eight wins this season match their entire win total from the past two seasons combined (2016: 3-13, 2017: 5-11). 

After starting the season 1-5, the Colts have won five consecutive.

The Cowboys have won three straight and are in the driver’s seat of the uninspiring NFC East.

The Browns have won two games in a row for the first time in 64 outings.

According to playoffstatus.com, the Saints, Texans, and Bears are virtual locks to make the postseason. The Cowboys have a good chance (54 percent), while the Colts (27 percent) and Browns (2 percent) will most likely have to wait another season.

4. Packers road woes continue.

What has happened to the Packers? Dubbed by many as Super Bowl contenders in the preseason, Aaron Rodgers and company have been anything but through 11 games. Especially on the road. Away from Lambeau, the Pack are 0-6. Dating back to last season, Rodgers has now lost eight straight road starts – the longest streak by a Packers QB since David Whitehurst lost nine straight from 1978-81 (EliasSports). It’s rare to see Green Bay look so lethargic, especially with #12 behind center. It’s even more rare to see the cheese heads miss the playoffs with #12 at the helm. At 4-6-1, they’re in danger of doing just that for the second year in a row. Not a good sign for the future of HC Mike McCarthy. 

3. Rivers = Dan Marino of this era.

QB Philip Rivers continues to find success year after year, yet one thing continues to elude him – a trip to the Super Bowl. Despite constantly being in the top-10 in every statistical category every season, the 15-year signal caller has yet to take the Bolts on a postseason run (4-5 in five playoff appearances). He has the most wins (114), completions (4,410), attempts (6,836), passing yards (53,467), and passing TDs (368) among QBs to never make a Super Bowl appearance (NFLResearch). On Sunday, he added another milestone to his career, completing a NFL-record 25 consecutive passes to start the game in a 45-10 thrashing of the Cardinals.

Rivers is off to one of the best starts of his career. The big question remains: can he make it to a SB (CBSSports)? 

While Dan Marino made one SB appearance (his second season), he never hoisted the Lombardi. Years later, it seems like Rivers is on a similar trajectory. 

Let's hope he gets at least one crack at it. 

2. Luck back on Colts side.

After much uncertainty as to whether Andrew Luck would return to form (or even play again) due to a severe shoulder injury, Luck has silenced the doubters, leading the Colts back into the sphere of relevance. The sure-fire comeback player of the year has recorded three or more touchdown passes in eight straight games – tying former Colt Peyton Manning for second on the all-time list, trailing only Tom Brady’s 10 straight in 2007 (NBCsports). During the Colts current five-game winning streak, Luck has tallied 16 touchdowns to only three interceptions, while completing 113 of 149 passes (75.8 percent). Much credit has to go to the offensive line, which has only surrendered 11 sacks this season – tied for tops in the league. A far cry from the last time Luck took the field in ’16, when the Colts allowed the fifth most sacks in the league (44).

Indy might not have the defense to make a run, but Luck and the offense are restoring hope in the midst of a late postseason push.

1. Cleveland thriving after Hue’s departure.

Hue has picked up right where he left off… losing. The only difference this time around is that he’s an assistant. The Browns demolished their former head man on Sunday, scoring their most points in a win this season (35), and most in a first half (28) since Week 14, 1991 (NFLResearch). One former teammate – DB Damarious Randall – even trolled Jackson by gifting him the ball after an interception.

He wasn't the only one, as a number of Browns players took the game personal, which started and ended with rookie Baker Mayfield. The first-year QB torched the Bengals for 258 yards and four touchdowns on 19 of 26 passing. After the game, Mayfield had an awkward exchange with Hue, which spilled over to the press conference, where he noted, “I didn’t feel like talking… It’s just somebody [who] was in our locker room, asking for us to play for him and then goes to a different team we play twice a year.” 

That distaste resounded throughout the team and carried into the game. And it has the Browns playing with some fire. The results are showing.

Mayfield has the Browns playing inspired football (cleveland.com).

This season:

Browns with Hue: (2-5-1), averaged 21.2 PPG, B. Mayfield – 130/223 (58%), 8 TD, 6 INT

Browns w/o Hue: (2-1), averaging 28 PPG, B. Mayfield – 65/88 (74%), 9 TD, INT

Behind the play of the number one overall pick, the Browns have snapped some notable streaks so far this season, including: 17-game losing streak, 19-game winless streak (tied with Steelers), 18-game AFC North winless streak, 33-game losing streak on Sundays, 25-game road losing streak, and 64 games without back-to-back wins (ESPN).

Oh and let’s not forget that in three games as interim head coach, Gregg Williams has more wins than Hue Jackson had in two seasons.

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 11

Week 11 food for thought: 

Sign of parity or a coincidence? 11 of the 13 NFL games played in week 11 were decided by five points or fewer (one possession) with the average margin of victory being 2.7 (two games decided by 1, two games by 2, five by 3, one by 4, and one by 5).

Five takeaways

5. Back-to-back? No chance!

There will be a new team hoisting the Lombardi trophy come February.  

Now the question becomes whether the Eagles will even crack the postseason? Of the 51 prior Super Bowl champions, 16 have missed the playoffs the following season (31.4%). And after losing five of its last seven, including an embarrassing 41-point loss to the Saints on Sunday, Philadelphia is on the brink of becoming team number 17.

The only thing going for the defending champs is that they play in one of the worst divisions in the league (NFC East). At 4-6, they remain only two games back of the first place Redskins, who just lost their starting QB (Alex Smith) for the remainder of the season.

There’s still a chance, but even if they sneak in, Philly will not be making a trip to Atlanta.  

4. Texas turn-around.

Is it time to take the Texans seriously? After starting the season 0-3, Houston has quietly won seven in a row, creating a two-game lead on the woeful AFC South. DeShaun Watson has been a big reason, as he has drastically improved after taking some time to adjust from last season’s injury.

First three games (0-3): 63-of-106 (59%), 5 TD, 3 INT

Last seven games (7-0): 138-of-203 (68%), 13 TD, 6 INT

Watson and the Texans continue to be a sleeper in the AFC (NJ.com). 

The defense continues to impress, ranking 9^th in sacks (28), 7^th in total defense (330.5), and 6^th in both points allowed (20.5) and takeaways (17).

With a balanced offense (avg 242.1 passing and 122.1 rushing) and a top-10 defense, the Texans could be a tough matchup come January. Especially with a signal caller who knows a thing or two about winning on the biggest stage (runner-up and National champion in back-to-back seasons at Clemson).

3. Steel comeback. 

One minute with the game on the line and your team down one score, who are you taking? Aaron Rodgers? Drew Brees? Tom Brady? 

How about Ben Roethlisberger? The 6-foot-5 signal caller rarely gets mentioned in the same category as said QBs, yet he continues to deliver in crunch time.

Trailing 16-0, Big Ben led the Steelers to 20 unanswered points, including the game-winning 1-yard TD run with seconds left to stun the Jaguars on Sunday. It was the 41^st game-winning drive of his career in the fourth quarter or overtime, passing John Elway for sixth all-time by any quarterback since the NFL merger (Sporting News). He ranks third among active QBs.

It’s hard to go wrong choosing any of the elite QBs, but Roethlisberger deserves more credit for consistently leading the Steelers to last-second victories.

2. The Saints keep on marching… to the Super Bowl?

Is there a better or more complete team in the league right now? It’d be hard to make a case.

Drew Brees is leading a prolific offense in the Big Easy (sportingnews.com).

Winners of nine straight, including a 48-7 drubbing of the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on Sunday, the Saints are tearing through the rest of the league. An opposition nightmare, Drew Brees is leading a historic offense. The 18-year veteran is enjoying arguably his best season, tallying 25 touchdowns to just one interception. Through 10 games, the Saints have tied the NFL record for most 40+ point games in a season with six. They’ve outscored their last three opponents 144-56. Averaging a league high 37.8 points per game and 427.1 yards per game (ranked third), Sean Payton may have his most talented team yet. And the current Super Bowl favorites at that.

1. Game of the year!!

In a matchup featuring the two highest-rated passers in primetime since 2000 (Jared Goff 139.9, and Patrick Mahomes, 106.7), Monday Night Football exceeded the hype.

Like a heavyweight fight, the Chiefs and Rams delivered punch after punch as both offenses (and defenses on occasion) responded to the other in dramatic fashion. The Rams were left standing with a 54-51 win, giving football fans everywhere a satisfying appetizer to the holiday week ahead.

Jared Goff and the Rams outlasted the Chiefs in a MNF instant classic (therams.com). 

Here's a look inside the numbers:

- It was the first game in NFL history in which both teams scored 50 points or more. Entering the night, teams to score 50 points were 216-0 all-time (ESPN Stats).

- The teams combined for 105 points – the third-highest point total of all-time and the most ever for a Monday Night game (NFLResearch).

- There were 14 touchdowns in the game. To put that into perspective, the Bills have scored a total of 13 all season.

- The teams combined for 1,001 yards (Chiefs 546, Rams 455), averaging a whopping 7.0 yards/play.

- Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill led all skill players with 215 yards and two TDs on 10 catches. 

- In just his 12^th game behind center, MVP front-runner Patrick Mahomes completed 33-of-46 passes for 478 yards and 6 TDs. He committed five turnovers (3 INT, 2 fumbles) but those were overshadowed by his play-making ability, as he joined the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger (2014) and the Giants' Y.A. Tittle (1962) as the only players since 1950 with multiple games with six or more touchdown passes in a single season (ESPN Stats). He’s up to 37 through 11 weeks.

- His counterpart, Rams QB Jared Goff completed 31-of-49 passes for 413 yards and 4 TDs, while adding a rushing score.

- The Rams won despite RB Todd Gurley not finding the end zone for the first time this season, snapping his 13-game TD streak which was tied for the fourth longest since 1950 (NFLResearch). He was a non-factor by his standards: 12 carries for 55 yards, and 3 catches for 39 yards.

- There were six lead changes, including four in the fourth quarter.

- In a game loaded with offense, the defenses also had some fun, tallying eight sacks (five by the Chiefs), seven turnovers (five by the Rams), and three touchdowns (two by the Rams). 

- Rams’ linebacker Samson Ebukam returned an interception and a fumble for touchdowns – joining Bears safety Eddie Jackson as the only two players to accomplish that in the same game in the last ten seasons (NFLResearch). Chiefs’ DE Allen Bailey added a fumble return for a score in the fourth quarter.

On a night with nonstop action and video game-like numbers, both teams put on a clinic in what will go down as the game of the year.

All we can hope for now is a rematch in the Super Bowl.

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 10

Five Takeaways

5. Time for TNF to be canned?

The NFL is constantly exploring avenues to increase revenues.

One of those has been playing football on Thursday nights. Since 2012, TNF has been a part of the regular season schedule, with every team in the league playing at least once in primetime on a short week. Yet, since its inception, the quality of competitive games has spiraled downward.

Enter 2018. Of the nine games played on the Thursday Night Football slate thus far, all but two have been decided by double digits, with the winning team outscoring the opposition by a staggering 338-165 (37.6-18.3 points per game) margin. Even more, eight of the nine victors have scored at least 30 points (with three of the last four scoring at least 40). Rarely do we get a close game.

The short week gives both teams little time to prepare, and gives the home team (combined 7-2) an even bigger advantage (without having to use a day for travel).

Growing up, it was always fun looking forward to Thanksgiving day games, but now even that has lost its luster because we see it every week.

It’s time for the NFL to think about restoring tradition. 

4. Pats worst nemesis?

Want a blueprint for beating the Patriots? Become an adversary via the Belichick learning tree, as a former player/coach.

Both have surprisingly paid off this season, as Detroit’s HC Matt Patricia (spent 14 seasons under Belichick as an assistant) and Tennessee’s HC Mike Vrabel (spent 8 seasons as a player for Belichick) have dominated their prior boss.

Patricia’s Lions took the Pats to the woodshed in primetime in Week 3 via a 26-10 blowout while holding the Pats to 209 yards of total offense. Then, this past Sunday, Vrabel’s Titans replicated that effort, defeating his former coach, 34-10, while holding them to 284 yards (40 rushing).

New England rarely looks outmatched or out-coached, but Belichick’s students have made the Patriots look silly and in the process, may have found a recipe in making the Pats less formidable.

3. Teams to keep an eye on.  

Every year there seems to be a team or two that sneaks up on the rest of the league and makes some noise come January. Last year, it was the Jaguars.

This year, here’s two candidates to keep an eye on (one from each conference):

Los Angeles Chargers – After starting 1-2, the Bolts have quietly won six in a row, and remain just 1.5 games back of the red-hot Kansas City Chiefs. The Chargers boast an underrated QB-RB-WR trio that can match up with the best of them. Philip Rivers is enjoying one of his best seasons (21 TD to 4 INT) as a pro, Melvin Gordon ranks fifth in rushing yards (672, 5.4 YPC), and Keenan Allen remains a steady number one option (687 yards, 2 TDs). The defense ranks 9^th in sacks (26) and that’s without star DE Joey Bosa, who is expected to return from injury later this season. They may not beat out the Chiefs for the division, but they very well could make a run similar to that of the Jaguars a season ago.

Chicago Bears – Before the season started, it was a foregone conclusion that the Packers or Vikings would rule the NFC North. Not so fast, as Chicago – winners of three straight – looks like the team to beat in the division. DE Khalil Mack has instantly inspired one of the league’s toughest defenses – which ranks third overall, second in sacks (30), and first in both INTs (16) & forced fumbles (16). Meanwhile, the offense is humming under first year HC Matt Nagy (29.9 PPG, ranked 5^th). QB Mitchell Trubisky continues to improve in his second season. With his performance on Sunday, he became the first Bears QB since 1950 with three games of 300+ passing yards and 3+ TD in a single season (NFLResearch). The Bears confidence is rising and with it a contender in the NFC.

2. Browns rookie trio igniting hope.

This past off season, GM John Dorsey was tasked with turning around one of the worst franchises in the NFL (let alone all of pro sports). So far, he’s delivered.

The Browns have struck gold with three future studs who are already making significant impacts (and strides in year one). For the first time in 30 tries (since ’99) they have a franchise signal caller. They’ve got a future bell-cow running back averaging 6.2 yards per carry. And they have a lock-down corner for years to come in a division with star wide outs Antonio Brown and A.J Green. All three (Mayfield, Chubb, and Ward) have won Rookie of the Week honors at least once so far this season.

Mayfield completed his first 13 passes on Sunday against the Falcons (ESPN.com).

Mayfield leads an offense that ranks 10^th in total yards, including sixth in rushing (133.2 YPG). The first-year signal caller has performed admirably, completing 61.8 percent of his passes while averaging 248 yards a game, with 13 TDs to 7 INTs. All on a team with very little offensive weaponry. Chubb has scored in all three of his starts, rushing for 341 yards on 60 carries (5.7 avg) in those contests. Ward has three INTs (two in his first game) & two fumble recoveries and continues to make plays in the secondary (7 pass breakups). 

It's still early, but for the first time since ’99, the Browns have some pieces to build around.

Fun Fact: Nick Chubb’s 92-yard TD run against the Falcons was the longest run in franchise history, surpassing Bobby Mitchell’s 90-yard TD against the Redskins in 1959.

1. No Bell, no problem.

The saga is finally over. Former Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell decided to forgo signing his franchise tag today, meaning he’ll spend the remainder of the season where he started it… off the field.

The beneficiary continues to be James Connor.

With the Steelers organization not budging, it has allowed the second-year back out of Pittsburgh to step in. The offense hasn’t skipped a beat.

Connor is actually out-performing his predecessor:

Bell through 9 gms in '17: 160 att., 528 yds, 5 TDs & 33 catches for 319 yds

Connor through 9 gms in '18: 164 att., 771 yds, 10 TDs & 39 catches for 386 yds, TD

Connor continues to carry the load for the Steelers (sportingnews.com). 

He's accomplished some impressive feats along the way: 

Connor is the only player in Steelers’ history with at least 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs in the first 8 games of a season (NFLonESPN).

He has four games with at least 100 rushing yards, 50 receiving yards and a TD this season – the most such games by any player in a season in NFL history (ESPN Stats).

I think it’s safe to say the Steelers are just fine without Bell.

Team > Me.