2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 3

Five Takeaways

5. Enough with the penalties

The NFL is going to great lengths to protect the quarterback and it’s getting out of control. There have been 34 roughing the passer penalties through the first three weeks – that’s eight more than the previous high (26, 2006). Not only is it changing the course of games, but it’s causing players to alter how they tackle the QB. Last week, Packers’ DE Clay Matthews was called for a questionable roughing penalty on Kirk Cousins, who ended up throwing an interception on the play, which would have resulted in a win for Green Bay. Instead, the penalty extended the drive and Cousins got another shot, forcing the game into overtime with a TD pass. Even worse, this week Dolphins’ DE William Hayes suffered a torn ACL while trying to avoid putting his body weight on the quarterback. I understand it’s a quarterback driven league but unless the defensive players are forcefully trying to hit these signal callers, let them play.

4. Black hole trouble

The Oakland Raiders have had an abysmal start to the season under first-year head coach Jon Gruden. After trading away their best player (Khalil Mack), the Raiders have struggled to find a pass rush (5 sacks) while giving up 27 points per game. Even more concerning… Oakland has outscored its opponents by a combined 35-17 in the first half, but has been outscored 64-17 after the break. It can’t bode well for a coach trying to change the culture before its move to Las Vegas.

3. On Any Given Sunday

In a league that is more unpredictable than not, Sunday was yet another example that anything can happen come game day in the NFL. 

Minnesota was 17-point favorites at home against Buffalo. The underdog Bills won (by more than 17), 27-6…

Jacksonville was 10-point favorites at home against Tennessee. The Titans won 9-6 – their third in a row over the Jags…

The Patriots lost by double digits for the second consecutive week – which hasn’t happened since 2002 (and just the third time ever under Bill Belichick)…

The Lions had a 100-yard rusher (Kerryon Johnson) for the first time since 2013 – a span of 70 consecutive games…

The Raiders ran 35 more offensive plays than the Dolphins (74-39), yet Miami won, 28-20, averaging 9.6 yards per play…

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 411 yards, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for over 400 yards in three straight games (NFLResearch). The Buccaneers lost 30-27.

2. Changing of the times

With development of the game starting at younger ages than ever before, rookies are coming into the league more prepared, with many of them starting from day one. When Arizona rookie QB Josh Rosen relieved Sam Bradford late in Sunday’s loss to the Bears, it marked the fifth of the five first-round signal callers from the 2018 Draft (Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Jackson) to see playing time. It’s the first time in the common Draft Era (since 1967) that five first-round selections played in the first three weeks of their rookie season (NFLResearch). With quarterback being arguably the toughest position (at least for franchises to get right), it could be a sign of things to come in the future.

1. Brownies Baking

I’ve been to about ten NFL games in my life. Yes, it’s a small sample size. None come close to the raucous environment I experienced Thursday night.

Browns vs. Jets pregame.

From the moment Baker Mayfield took the field in relief of the injured Tyrod Taylor (concussion), the entire atmosphere in First Energy Stadium was electrified. Inheriting a 14-0 deficit and (-3) net passing yards as a result of six Taylor-led drives, Mayfield stepped in and fired a 14-yard completion on his first pass attempt. He proceeded to orchestrate a promising first possession (3-of-4, 47 yards) to get a field goal before the half, injecting life into the crowd and belief into his teammates. Coming out of the half, the rookie signal caller led two touchdown drives – the latter being late in the fourth quarter – to complete an epic comeback and give the Browns their first win in 635 days.

Amid the comeback, Baker showed his enthusiasm when he tied the game at 14 after catching a two-point conversion pass on a trick play. With adrenaline running high, the number one overall pick strolled to the sideline and encouraged the crowd to make some noise. Everyone obliged, turning the stadium into a frenzy.

His energy was infectious. His athleticism and passion for the game exemplified. Like most fans, I don’t know what the glory days of the Browns was like. But for one night, Mayfield turned back the clock, giving hope to a starved city, and providing a glimpse into what the future may hold.

A reminder that after 30 tries, maybe... just maybe, the Browns finally got one right.

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 2

Favorite fact of Week 2: Think the NFL favors offenses? The cumulative passer rating for all quarterbacks in Week 2 was 102.6, a new record for a single week (Gil Brandt). The previous high was 94.8 (Week 10, 2010). 

Five Takeaways

5. Kickers’ woes

They’re the least athletic players on the field, yet arguably some of the most important.

A professional with ONE job… kick the ball through the uprights. And yet the difficulty of this ‘simple’ task continues to rise with each week for these so-called pro kickers.

Sunday was an atrocious display of failed field goal attempts, as there were 19 missed opportunities to put points on the board (2 shy of the all-time mark). A week after missing a FG and a shot to defeat the Steelers, Browns K Zane Gonzalez missed not one… not two… not three… but FOUR attempts (two extra points and two field goals), leading to a loss in New Orleans! Browns fans just can’t make this stuff up. A shame for a franchise trying to turn things around.

As if that wasn’t enough, Minnesota missed a golden opportunity to beat a division rival on the road when rookie K Daniel Carlson failed on all three of his attempts – two in overtime – resulting in a tie in Green Bay.

Honorable mention: Raiders Mike Nugent had an extra point blocked in the second quarter in a one-point loss to the Broncos.

It has me wondering (as if I were playing a video game, i.e. Madden)… should teams just start going for it on fourth down?

4. Trouble rising in the Burgh

Le’Veon Bell holding out. Antonio Brown unhappy, not showing up to Monday’s practice. The Pittsburgh Steelers are spiraling in the wrong direction through the first two weeks of the season. Drama aside, the lack of a defense is a big reason for the early struggles. In their last three games (including the playoff loss to the Jaguars), the Steelers are allowing a whopping 36 points and 385 yards per game to opposing offenses (in the 7 games since losing Ryan Shazier in the middle of last season, they’ve allowed 29 PPG and 361 YPG). It’s not a recipe built for success, having to lean on the offense to win a shootout every week. It’s still early, but with drama mounting and a locker room on the brink of instability, the Steelers could be on the wrong end of a disappointing season.

3. The sunshine state is shining.

The three teams residing in Florida are off to flourishing starts, going a combined 6-0. In the preseason, it was expected that the Jaguars would be a contender in the playoff picture. The Dolphins and Buccaneers? Not so much. In fact, the ESPN preseason power rankings had Miami pegged dead last and Tampa Bay 25^th (http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/24364276/nfl-power-rankings-32-surprise-players-watch-2018-preseason). 

The sunshine state is off to a surprising start (Fox sports). 

Forget about that! The Bucs’ Ryan Fitzpatrick is leading a resurgence in his 14^th season, throwing for over 400 yards and four scores in each of his first two starts – wins over New Orleans and the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles – while the Dolphins are leaning on efficient quarterback play (the return of Ryan Tannehill) and an opportunistic defense. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is picking up where it left off, fielding one of the league’s best defenses coupled with a promising offense.

Yes we’re only two weeks in, but it looks like the sunshine state is poised to prove the doubters wrong. Kudos to the panel of ‘experts’ that thought otherwise.

2. Pat Mahomes is this year’s Deshaun Watson… but better??

Last season, Texans rookie Deshaun Watson burst onto the scene when he accounted for 17 touchdowns (16 passing) during an incredible 4-week stretch -- before losing his season due to injury. This season, it looks like Mahomes is taking over that reign as the league’s most exciting newcomer (albeit in his second year) to watch. All he’s done in the first two weeks of the season is throw for 10 touchdowns (and no interceptions) – the only quarterback to do that since the 1970 merger (NFLResearch) - in road wins over the Chargers and Steelers. Behind an offense loaded with playmakers, the Chiefs offense is must-watch television with Mahomes under center. Here’s to Andy Reid hoping he will be the signal caller to finally take KC over the top.

Mahomes is the youngest player in NFL history to throw six TDs in a game (Washington Post).

Fun Fact: Alex Smith threw 26 touchdown passes last season for the Chiefs. With three more TD tosses, Mahomes will already be halfway to that mark.

1. The LA Rams are the team to beat

Last season, the LA Rams led the league in scoring (29.9 PPG) but had a defense that ranked 19^th (12^th in scoring defense). This season, the offense is still humming (33.5 PPG). But it’s the defense, with all of its new acquisitions that’s looking like it may be the best unit in the league (allowing just 6.5 PPG). Couple that with their explosive offense (not to mention great special teams) and the Rams are the team to beat, period. If they stay healthy, there’s no reason the NFC title shouldn’t go through them. And remember, this is a team that had a taste of the postseason a year ago. That experience should go a long way in driving them to bigger heights come January.  

2018: Five [Opfer's Take]aways from NFL Week 1

Five Takeaways 

5. Week 1 weirdness.

With many players opting to forego the preseason slate, it often takes a half (or two) to get up to speed, opening the door for early season surprises. Week 1 brought a plethora of unforeseen, if not, bizarre developments, including:

A 14-year journeyman signal caller in Ryan Fitzpatrick go into the Superdome and unleash a perfect QB rating to the tune of 417 yards passing and five touchdowns in leading the Bucs to an upset win over the Saints.

The Browns snapping their 17-game losing streak by… not winning.

A tie for the first time on opening day since 1971.

The Dolphins and Titans playing a 7-hour, 8 minute marathon (due to weather delays) - the longest game since the 1970 merger (Elias).

All seven first year head coaches losing their debuts (see more below).

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers returning from injury in the second half to overcome a 20-point fourth quarter deficit against the Bears.

4. How is Nathan Peterman still starting?

Bills starting QB Nathan Peterman continued his woeful play behind center on Sunday, completing just 5-of-18 passes for 24 yards, including two interceptions in a 47-3 loss to the Ravens. In his three starts with the Bills, he has averaged just 49 yards per game, completed just 38.1 percent of his passes, thrown one TD to seven INTs, and had a passer rating of 16.8 (NFLResearch). Better yet, Peterman has yet to finish a game in which he has started. I understand the Bills don’t have a lot around him, but how is this guy still a starter in the NFL?

3. Only the Browns.

How many teams would snap a lengthy losing streak by tying? Not even six takeaways was enough to get a win. In fact, since the Browns returned to the NFL, teams with a (+5) turnover margin or better are 132-4-1 (Barnwell). The Browns are now responsible for two of the losses and the tie after Sunday. What does Cleveland have to do?!

2. Debuts denied.

It isn’t easy being a newbie. Seven teams – Arizona, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, New York [Giants], Oakland, and Tennessee – entered the 2018 season with new head coaches. In week 1, all seven lost, marking the worst record by a group of new head coaches in NFL history (NFLResearch). Arizona, Detroit, and Oakland were each blown out on their home turf (outscored by a combined 105-36), while Chicago and Matt Nagy had the most heartbreaking loss of the week, squandering a 20-point fourth quarter lead by surrendering 21 points in the final quarter to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

1. Don’t overreact. It’s only one week!

It happens every year. Week 1 comes to conclusion and we all want to rush to judgment on predictions based on the results. Don’t buy into it. Last season saw the Saints start 0-2, only to reel off eight straight wins and 11 of their next 14. It also saw the Chiefs pummel the Patriots on opening night, beat the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles the following week, start the season 5-0, then lose six of their next seven. So even though Fitz-magic and Uncle Sam (Darnold) came out of the gates on fire in week 1, don’t hop on the bandwagon just yet. It’s a league that is unpredictable on any given Sunday, but a league that becomes more predictable as the season progresses.