With the 2016 season set to kick off, here is a
preview of whether each team will improve, stay the same, or decline from its
win total (in parenthesis) from a year ago, including predictions on who will make the playoffs, and who will hoist the
Lombardi.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (8-8)
The Bills have had just one winning season in the last
decade. Lack of a signal caller has been a major reason why – nine different
quarterbacks have started a game in the last ten seasons. After a promising
first year as a full-time starter by Tyrod Taylor, it seems they’ve found their
guy (as evidenced by his long term deal). Taking the next step will be contingent
on him building off the successes he had a year ago and improving a defense
that ranked 19th overall.
Over/Under Wins – Push
Miami Dolphins (6-10)
From 1966-1995, the Phins had a total of TWO head coaches
(Legendary Don Shula accounted for 26 of those seasons). Since then, six
different coaches have tried to take over the reins, all with little to no success.
The seventh man up… Adam Gase. He inherits a defense that ranked 25th
overall (28th against the run) and an offense that ranked 26th.
Ouch. The upside? A young and talented roster – Miami has the third youngest
roster in the league (not to mention the youngest head coach) – and some pieces
to build around. Wide receivers Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker have the
traits to be one of the best duos in the league. And QB Ryan Tannehill has showed
signs of being the franchise guy. For the latter, he has no more excuses in
what will be his fourth season. Gase has improved every QB he has coached, and
doing so with Tannehill will be imperative to the Dolphins success.
Over/Under Wins – Over
New England Patriots (12-4)
Winners of seven consecutive division crowns, and thirteen
of the last fifteen, the Pats show no signs of slowing down. At least as long
as Brady and Belichick are around. Even with Brady out the first
four games of the season, New England plays three of those four at home. They
will manage to get by, and a motivated Brady will return to do what he does –
win.
Over/Under Wins – Under
New York Jets (10-6)
The return of Ryan Fitzpatrick is a huge plus for the
offense, and adding do-it-all RB Matt Forte into the mix should only help an
offense that ranked 10th a year ago. Add that to a stout and growing
defense, and the Jets have a chance to break the 5-year playoff drought. Gang
Green open the season with five of their first six games against playoff teams
from a year ago. We’ll find out rather quickly if this team has what it takes.
Over/Under Wins – Under
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (5-11)
A rash of injuries (had a team record 20 players on injured
reserve) plagued the usually prominent Ravens a year ago. Returning that talent
to the roster will certainly restore a John Harbaugh like franchise, as the
Ravens haven’t had back-to-back losing seasons this century. They’ve also
tallied double digit wins the last three times coming off a losing season. Although
aging, this unit should have success if they can avoid the injury bug.
Over/Under Wins – Over
Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
Same story, different year. All the recent regular season
success the Bengals have had in recent years has meant nothing, as five
straight playoff appearances have resulted in five straight first round losses.
In 2016, outside of the receiving corps, it doesn’t seem like much has changed
roster wise. Losing receivers Marvin Jones and Muhammed Sanu will be tough, as
they don’t have much experience outside of A.J. Green at the position. The
bigger loss might be Hugh Jackson however, who seemed to boost the development
of Andy Dalton, making him a top-10 QB before his injury. Dalton will have to
continue down that path if the Bengals want to get over the hump that has been
haunting them since 1990 (the last time they won a playoff game).
Over/Under Wins – Under
Cleveland Browns (3-13)
Where do you begin with the Browns? Twenty-five starting
quarterbacks since they returned in ’99. Eight Head Coaches. Seven general
managers. The franchise has been anything but stable since returning and it has
showed. Hugh Jackson may be the perfect hire to rebuild this once proud
franchise. RGIII… that remains to be seen. In the daunting AFC North, short-term
success is unrealistic. But long-term, Jackson has the attributes to turn this
around. As for 2016, another losing season is on the horizon.
Over/Under Wins – Over
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
Head Coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in
Pittsburgh. Expect 2016 to be no different. The Steelers boast arguably the
best running back (Bell) and wide out (Brown) combination in the league. Pair
that with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger and this offense is virtually
unstoppable. The only concern seems to be in the defensive secondary which
ranked 30th a year ago. That (and injuries) may be the only thing
keeping this team from being a Super Bowl contender.
Over/Under Wins – Over
AFC South
Houston Texans (9-7)
The story this offseason was how newcomers QB Brock Osweiler
and RB Lamar Miller were going to drastically improve the offense. That story
has become irrelevant in the preseason. Instead, it has been how impressive
Jadeveon Clowney has been. That’s the last thing opposing offenses want to
hear, especially those in the AFC South. Pair his improvement with Mr. Watt and
this defensive line has the chance to be the best in the league. The only thing
that has doomed the Texans in years past is the signal caller. Osweiler has the
chance to change that, with help from a host of playmakers in DeAndre Hopkins,
Lamar Miller, Will Fuller, Braxton Miller, and Jaelen Strong. If they can put it all together, a playoff
contender could be brewing.
Over/Under Wins – Over
Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
Two years ago, the Colts were the trending team in the AFC,
with a stud behind center, heading in the direction of a top contender. After
all, they had progressively went from making the Wild Card game in 2012, to the
Divisional game in ‘13, to the Conference Championship in ’14. QB Andrew Luck
was taking the league by storm and it was fair to say the Super Bowl was not
far from their reach. Then, last year happened and now there seems to be more
concern than there is certainty surrounding the franchise. No doubt Luck will
return to form, but his defense (26th overall in ’15) and supporting
cast will need to do the same in order to become a contender again.
Over/Under Wins – Push
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9)
Gus Bradley is quietly building a strong team around all the
young talent they have drafted in recent years. It’s just a matter of time
before they put it all together. It starts with a growing QB in Blake Bortles
(Tied for 2nd in Pass TD) and two incredibly skilled wideouts in
Allen Robinson (Tied for 1st Rec TD) and Allen Hurns (Tied for 5th
Rec TD). The defense meanwhile welcomes back 2015 first rounder Dante Fowler –
who missed all last season – to lead a talented D-line. If they are able to
continue to improve, a division title and first playoff appearance since 2007
could be on the horizon.
Over/Under Wins – Over
Tennessee Titans (3-13)
As bad as the Titans were last season, six of their losses were
by a combined 21 points (3.5 points/gm). Bridging that gap by finding ways to
close out games will be huge in determining this season’s success. As QB Marcos
Mariota develops, finishing close games will too. The key that will aid in that
development – the running game – has been bolstered by adding two backs in the
offseason (DeMarco Murray via trade and Derek Henry in 2nd round of
draft) to the fold, along with first-round pick Jack Conklin at left tackle. Establishing
a ground attack will open up Mariota to make plays down the field. On the other
side of the ball, the defense is well underrated (12th overall last
year), and with legendary coach Dick LeBeau in his second season, the potential
of fielding a top-10 defense is well within reach.
Over/Under Wins – Over
AFC West
Denver Broncos (12-4)
Denver will be the first team ever to start a quarterback
who has recorded zero NFL passes (including zero starts) the year after winning
the Super Bowl. In an interesting storyline, second-year QB Trevor Siemian will
get the nod on opening day. But if anything is certain about the Broncos, it’s
that quarterback play doesn’t have to be fantastic to lead to success. Peyton
Manning ended the regular season 33rd out of a qualified 35 in
passer rating (mind you there is 32 teams in the league!) while teammate Brock
Osweiler ranked 24th. The Broncos still recorded 12 wins. While this
year will be much different behind center, the philosophy will still be the
same – do just enough on offense and lean on a great defense.
Over/Under Wins – Under
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
The Chiefs finally won a playoff game last season for the
first time since 1993. Now, the next step is to build off that. Many of the
pieces are still in place, and keeping them in the fold will be key in making
another run. The backfield is the biggest strength, with a trio of backs
capable of carrying the load in Jamal Charles (Career 5.5 Yds./Carry), Spencer
Ware (Tied for most Yds./Carry with 5.6 in ‘15), and Charcandrick West. Veteran
Alex Smith, known for his conservative nature, has shown he’s good enough to be
successful with his style of play. Meanwhile, the defense is led by a nasty
front seven when healthy. With defensive rookie of the year Marcus Peters
manning the secondary, KC is hoping to build off last season’s success (7th
overall defensively).
Over/Under Wins – Under
Oakland Raiders (7-9)
The Raiders haven’t had a winning season since 2002. That is
bound to change in the near future. Much like the aforementioned Jaguars,
Oakland is ascending in the right direction thanks to an established franchise
quarterback (Derek Carr), a sure-fired stud at wide receiver (Amari Cooper),
and a young and talented defense led by All-Pro Khalil Mack. Playing in a
division with two playoff teams, including the SuperBowl Champ, is never an
easy task but that is what builds a contender. The men in black will be another
team that very well may surprise in ’16.
Over/Under Wins – Over
San Diego Chargers (4-12)
First round pick Joey Bosa holding out (something I’ll never
understand) doesn’t help a San Diego team who managed just 32 sacks last season
(24th in the league) and ranked 27th in rushing. On the
flipside, Philip Rivers experienced a career year last year in terms of
completions, attempts, and yards in large part due to having to play from
behind. Reuniting with Coach Ken Whisenhunt hopes to reignite his career and
the Chargers offense. Expect the Bolts to be better, but not quite a playoff
contender.
Over/Under Wins – Over
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (4-12)
Surprise, surprise. Tony Romo injured yet again. Gone until
at least mid-season, the keys turn to rookie Dak Prescott. And if the preseason
is any indication, he’s more than ready. It will be an all-rookie backfield, as
Prescott will be joined by first rounder Ezekiel Elliott. Having the fourth
easiest schedule may help Dak and the ‘Boys early on, but it will be
interesting to see how well he can develop as the season progresses. In a
division that always seems to be wide open, America’s team has the talent to be
in the hunt come December.
Over/Under Wins – Over
New York Giants (6-10)
The G-Men ranked dead last in total defense last season. On
the flipside, they fielded a top-10 offense (8th). It resulted in
some lavish spending to try to improve the former which included signing DE
Olivier Vernon (5-year, $85 million), DT Damon Harrison (5-year, $46.25
million), and CB Janoris Jenkins (5-year, $62.5 million). With veteran QB Eli
Manning still at the helm, and with plenty of weapons at his disposal, most
notably all-star WR Odell Beckham, the offense should continue to excel. It
will now be up to the defense to be more effective.
Over/Under Wins – Over
Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)
A rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback aren’t usually
recipes for success entering a new season. Head man Doug Pederson and second
overall pick Carson Wentz are hoping to change that. Wentz will become the
first rookie QB to start a season opener in franchise history. The organization
must have been confident in his abilities based on their decision to trade
Bradford. Sending him to the Vikings for a first round draft pick is a steal,
especially with his injury history. Aside from that, an uninspiring cast of
playmakers will try to help the development of the young QB. In addition, a
defense that ranked 30th overall (in large part due to Kelly’s
up-tempo offense) needs to improve. Right now however, this team seems to have
more questions than answers.
Over/Under Wins – Under
Washington Redskins (9-7)
If there is a favorite to win this division, it’d have to be
the Skins. They had the least amount of turnover in the offseason – Eagles and
Giants have new head coaches, while the Boys are starting a rookie QB & RB–
and the least amount of question marks going into the season. They’re also lead
by QB Kirk Cousins, who is quietly developing into a top-10 quarterback. He was
1st in Completion percentage, 5th in QB rating, tied for
6th most TD passes, and 10th in yards passing a season
ago. If his supporting group stays healthy, this offense has top-10 potential.
Over/Under Wins – Over
NFC North
Chicago Bears (6-10)
Chicago doesn’t have a whole lot of pop when looking at
their roster. QB Jay Cutler is too inconsistent and losing OC Adam Gase will
certainly hurt. If WR Kevin White, who missed all last season, can step in and
be effective, he and Alshon Jeffery could pair to be a lethal duo. Losing Forte
hurts, but Langford showed signs he’s more than capable to take over the load.
The defense actually looks more promising than the offense, with an impressive
front seven on paper. Pickups Akiem Hicks, Danny Trevathan, and Jerrell Freeman
join stalwart Pernell McPhee to anchor the 3-4 defense.
Over/Under Wins – Push
Detroit Lions (7-9)
Although Megatron retired, there is still reason for
optimism in Detroit. After starting the season 1-7 a year ago, the Lions won
six out of their last eight games. Franchise QB Matthew Stafford was a big
reason why. He posted a league high 69.9 completion percentage over that span,
including nineteen touchdowns to only two interceptions! No doubt losing
Johnson will be a major challenge, but there is still talented skill players
around him – Golden Tate, Anquan Boldin, Marvin Jones, Ameer Abdullah, and Theo
Riddick – to be successful. The defense will have to improve and finding a way
to beat Green Bay and Minnesota (0-4 last year) will be key to finding success.
If so, the Lions will be a surprise.
Over/Under Wins – Over
Green Bay Packers (10-6)
Aaron Rodgers is elite. Bringing back his number one
receiver and favorite target makes him that much better. After missing all last
season, Jordy Nelson returns in what should reinvigorate an offense that
struggled at times (finished 23rd in yards/game). Having the easiest
strength of schedule won’t hurt either. Expect the Pack to be one of the top
contenders in the NFC.
Over/Under Wins – Over
Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
Losing starter Teddy Bridgewater for the season was a big
blow. Vikings responded by giving up a first and a fourth rounder for a middle
of the pack replacement in Sam Bradford (25-37-1 as a starter). Granted, this
will be the most talented team he has been on, led by All-Pro and active
rushing leader Adrian Peterson, which should certainly help. But at such a
steep price, it does raise some eye brows. Regardless, Minnesota is loaded with
talent on both sides of the ball and finally playing indoors again will
definitely be advantageous.
Over/Under Wins – Under
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
After starting the 2015 season with an impressive 6-1 start,
the Falcons fell apart, losing seven of their next nine, resulting in a
mediocre .500 season. The talent is certainly in place for a successful 2016
campaign, behind the likes of Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, but a brutal
schedule and playing within a tough division may suggest otherwise. Atlanta has
the toughest strength of schedule, which includes a three week stretch
(beginning week 4) of hosting Carolina, at Denver, and then at Seattle
(combined to go 37-11 a season ago).
Over/Under Wins – Push
Carolina Panthers (15-1)
Carolina had the highest scoring offense (31.3/gm) last
season despite ranking 24th in passing offense and 11th
in total yards per game. MVP Cam Newton led the attack with 45 total
touchdowns. The return of WR Kelvin Benjamin will give the receiving corps a
huge upgrade, making the offense all the more dangerous. The defensive front
seven is a major strength, especially the linebackers, as Luke Kuechly and
Thomas Davis are the best duo in the league. The secondary however, will be the
biggest mystery heading into the new season as the Panthers will start two
rookies at cornerback in James Bradberry and Daryl Worley. In all, it’s hard
not to like this team as a top contender to return to the Super Bowl.
Over/Under Wins – Under
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
The longtime successful duo of QB Drew Brees and Head Coach Sean
Payton is slowly winding down. If they want to have any short-term success, the
woeful defense will have to take a major leap. Last season, they ranked 31st
in Total yards allowed (31st in Pass yards allowed and Rush yards
allowed) and dead last (32nd) in points allowed per game. Improving
in just a few of those categories could be the difference in adding some wins. Who
Dat nation is hoping that a healthy secondary – consisting of Kenny Vaccaro,
Jairus Byrd, along with newcomers Vonn Bell and Erik Harris – can do just that.
Having the fourth toughest schedule certainly won’t help the cause, as they
will be tested often.
Over/Under Wins – Push
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
The Bucs have all the makings of a sleeper. They possess talented
youth and a rising star at QB in Jameis Winston. They also have the best named
head coach in the league in Dirk Koetter. Shoring up a secondary that allowed a
league high 70% of passes to be completed is a must. Bringing in veteran Brent
Grimes and drafting Vernon Hargraves was a step in doing just that. If success doesn’t
come this year, it will certainly be in the near future. A daunting first five
games await before the bye week (at ATL, at ARI, vs. LA, vs. DEN, at CAR). If
they can come away with three or more wins, they very well could be in
contention for a playoff spot come seasons end.
Over/Under – Over
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals (13-3)
Arizona boasts arguably the most talented team in the league
across the board. They were one of two teams to rank in the top-5 in both Offense
and Defense (1st & 5th, respectively). Do-it-all back
David Johnson turned out to be a gem as a rookie. Adding him to an offense
loaded with skill players makes the Cards one of the hardest teams to defend. On
the other side of the ball, adding DE Chandler Jones (12.5 sacks) to a defensive
unit that ranked just 20th in sacks with 36 should be a huge upgrade.
If Carson Palmer can become elite in the postseason (and not just the regular
season) Arizona will be a favorite to reach the Super Bowl.
Over/Under Wins – Under
Los Angeles Rams (7-9)
The Rams are hoping that the move to Hollywood will bring
some spice to an underperforming offense over the years. Since 2007, they’ve finished
no higher than 24th in total offense. Last year… dead last. Now,
with a couple pieces to build around – 2015 Offensive Rookie of the Year Todd
Gurley & 2016 first overall pick Jared Goff – things are heading in the
right direction. For a team philosophy that seeks winning the battle in the
trenches, making more plays through the air will have to become more of a focus
in order to sustain success (32nd in passing yards, 31st
in completion %, 32nd TD passes).
Over/Under Wins – Push
San Francisco 49ers (5-11)
It’s pretty remarkable that one division can have the two
worst ranking offenses in the league. Hello Rams and 49ers. San Francisco
ranked 31st in total offense, and even with the addition of Head
Coach Chip Kelly, it’d be a surprise to see much improvement in ‘16.
Instability across the board, especially behind center, is a major concern for
a once proud franchise. Kelly turned the 4-12 Eagles into a 10-6 playoff team
in his first season in the NFL. If he does the same with the Niners, he’ll be
Coach of the Year. Unfortunately, that’s not likely, as San Fran will once
again be the cellar dwellers of the West.
Over/Under Wins – Under
Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
Seattle has been known for its defense over the year’s thanks
in large part to leading the league in scoring defense four years in a row.
They’ve made the playoffs and won at least one game in each of those four
seasons. The Legion of Boom is still intact, along with the majority of
starters on defense which should pave the way in making it five straight in
leading that category. Don’t forget about QB Russell Wilson and the other side
of the ball however. The Hawks ranked 4th in offense a season ago,
and Wilson experienced the best year of his young career. Although Beast Mode is
gone, the supporting cast is still impressive enough to build off its top-5
ranking. Seattle will continue its run of success to a fifth straight playoff
appearance.
Over/Under Wins – Over
So how will the season shake out?
Sleeper Teams - Oakland, Tampa Bay
Top contenders for the Number 1 pick - San Francisco, Cleveland
Playoff Predictions
AFC NFC
East East
1. New England (2) 1. New York (4)
2. Miami 2.
Dallas (6)
3. New York 3.
Washington
4. Buffalo 4.
Philadelphia
North North
1. Pittsburgh (1) 1.
Green Bay (2)
2. Cincinnati (5) 2. Detroit
3. Baltimore 3.
Minnesota
4. Cleveland 4.
Chicago
South South
1. Houston (4) 1. Carolina
(1)
2. Jacksonville 2. Tampa Bay
3. Indianapolis 3. Atlanta
4. Tennessee 4. New
Orleans
West West
1. Kansas City (3) 1. Arizona (3)
2. Denver (6) 2.
Seattle (5)
3. Oakland 3.
St. Louis
4. San Diego 4. San
Francisco
AFC Championship NFC Championship Pittsburgh over New England Seattle over Green Bay
Super Bowl LI
Seattle over Pittsburgh
A rematch of Super Bowl XL. It sure wouldn't disappoint. High powered offense against a stingy defense. This time around, Russell Wilson makes up for his INT two years ago and secures the win with a TD run with seconds to go.
Two out of the last three years, the team that has fielded the number one defense in the league has won the Super Bowl (it would have been three years in a row if it wasn't for a questionable Seahawks call on the goal-line). Don't be surprised if this year turns out to be the same. The Hawks regain the number one spot, along with the trophy.
